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This Just In....



Hi, Folks,
This just arrived in my mailbox and the similarity to my latest Food 
Supply Update, published last Tuesday is amazing! See 
http://www.lis.ab.ca/walton/geri1.html  if you didn't read it. And now 
this--confirmation of my fears.....Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute

To: 
            arkinst@concentric.net


Attached is an excellent AP article about scientists conferring about
possible effects of El Nino.  They must have been reading your posting!

Thanks for keeping us informed, Geri.

Shalom,

Mark



                                  


 El Nino Could be Costly, Warn Scientists
      5.15 p.m. EDT (2115 GMT) July 2, 1997

      MELBOURNE — International scientists warned on
 Wednesday that a major El Nino weather pattern was occurring
 with the potential to cause billions of dollars of damage in key
 agricultural regions worldwide. 

 Meteorogical and oceanographic readings from the tropical Pacific
 ocean point to formation of an El Nino possibly rivaling the one in
 1982 and 1983, the largest this century, which was responsible for
 hurricanes, droughts, fires and flooding in over 15 countries. 

 "In places like Australia and South America, the effects could be
 devastating,'' Keven Trenberth head of the climate analysis arm of
 the U.S. Weather Service's National Center for Atmospheric
 Research told Reuters. 

 Meteorologists meeting in Melbourne this week to discuss the
 climate said producers of agricultural commodities such as coffee,
 wheat, sugar and other staples were at greatest risk from an El
 Nino, which typically causes droughts in some parts of the world
 and floods in others. 

 Industries that depend on hydro-power to operate are also at risk,
 as are inland shipping lanes that require navigable water levels to
 ferry supplies to remote mine sites. 

 In places such as Papua New Guinea and in East Kalimantan,
 Indonesia, such vessels have been marooned for weeks at a time
 on dry river beds. 

 An El Nino, which is Spanish for Christ Child because it normally
 occurs around Christmas, forms when waters in the tropical
 Pacific ocean turn warmer, changing wind and other global
 patterns — which in turn wreaks havoc on weather sensitive
 regions. 

 But there is strong evidence that the next El Nino has arrived
 early, which means it could last longer than previous ones. 

 "The central and Eastern Pacific equatorial Pacific Ocean became
 warmer and the trade winds across most of the tropical Pacific are
 much weaker than normal,'' said Bill Kininmonth, head of the
 climate center of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 

 This and other data indicate the latest El Nino is the strongest
 since 1983, he said. 

 Australian farmers and ranchers are being warned to brace for
 drought conditions, which threaten everything from wheat and
 canola to raising of livestock. 

 In 1983, thousands of head of livstock in Australia were destroyed
 because there was no grain feed for them to eat. 

 "It was a terrible time of severe drought and economic impact,''
 said John Kermond of the Washington-based National Oceanic
 and Atmospheric Administration (NOAC). 

 According to NOAC, the 1982-83 El Nino wreaked economic
 damage costing at least US$8 billion. 

 At the Coffee Sugar and Cocoa Exchange in New York, cocoa
 prices rose recently on worries about possible crop damage in
 Indonesia and elsewhere due to the El Nino as temperatures rise in
 the southern hemisphere. 

 Oil World, an independent agricutural newsletter has said there is a
 50 percent chance the U.S., Europe, and Africa would be
 negatively affected by El Nino, while there is a 60 to 80 percent
 chance of droughts in Oceania and Asia. 

 There is little to suggest that an El Nino is anthing more than a
 naturally recurring phenomenum, although some scientits have
 suggested a link with global warming. 

 They noted what seems to be increasing frequency in which they
 occur. 

 "El Ninos have been going on for thousands of years, but now
 there seems to be more than ever,'' said Trenbeth of the National
 Center for Atmospheric Research. 


                      © Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved 

            © FOX News Network 1997. All rights reserved. 
comments@foxnews.com
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