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This Just In....
Hi, Folks,
This just arrived in my mailbox and the similarity to my latest Food
Supply Update, published last Tuesday is amazing! See
http://www.lis.ab.ca/walton/geri1.html if you didn't read it. And now
this--confirmation of my fears.....Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
To:
arkinst@concentric.net
Attached is an excellent AP article about scientists conferring about
possible effects of El Nino. They must have been reading your posting!
Thanks for keeping us informed, Geri.
Shalom,
Mark
El Nino Could be Costly, Warn Scientists
5.15 p.m. EDT (2115 GMT) July 2, 1997
MELBOURNE — International scientists warned on
Wednesday that a major El Nino weather pattern was occurring
with the potential to cause billions of dollars of damage in key
agricultural regions worldwide.
Meteorogical and oceanographic readings from the tropical Pacific
ocean point to formation of an El Nino possibly rivaling the one in
1982 and 1983, the largest this century, which was responsible for
hurricanes, droughts, fires and flooding in over 15 countries.
"In places like Australia and South America, the effects could be
devastating,'' Keven Trenberth head of the climate analysis arm of
the U.S. Weather Service's National Center for Atmospheric
Research told Reuters.
Meteorologists meeting in Melbourne this week to discuss the
climate said producers of agricultural commodities such as coffee,
wheat, sugar and other staples were at greatest risk from an El
Nino, which typically causes droughts in some parts of the world
and floods in others.
Industries that depend on hydro-power to operate are also at risk,
as are inland shipping lanes that require navigable water levels to
ferry supplies to remote mine sites.
In places such as Papua New Guinea and in East Kalimantan,
Indonesia, such vessels have been marooned for weeks at a time
on dry river beds.
An El Nino, which is Spanish for Christ Child because it normally
occurs around Christmas, forms when waters in the tropical
Pacific ocean turn warmer, changing wind and other global
patterns — which in turn wreaks havoc on weather sensitive
regions.
But there is strong evidence that the next El Nino has arrived
early, which means it could last longer than previous ones.
"The central and Eastern Pacific equatorial Pacific Ocean became
warmer and the trade winds across most of the tropical Pacific are
much weaker than normal,'' said Bill Kininmonth, head of the
climate center of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
This and other data indicate the latest El Nino is the strongest
since 1983, he said.
Australian farmers and ranchers are being warned to brace for
drought conditions, which threaten everything from wheat and
canola to raising of livestock.
In 1983, thousands of head of livstock in Australia were destroyed
because there was no grain feed for them to eat.
"It was a terrible time of severe drought and economic impact,''
said John Kermond of the Washington-based National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAC).
According to NOAC, the 1982-83 El Nino wreaked economic
damage costing at least US$8 billion.
At the Coffee Sugar and Cocoa Exchange in New York, cocoa
prices rose recently on worries about possible crop damage in
Indonesia and elsewhere due to the El Nino as temperatures rise in
the southern hemisphere.
Oil World, an independent agricutural newsletter has said there is a
50 percent chance the U.S., Europe, and Africa would be
negatively affected by El Nino, while there is a 60 to 80 percent
chance of droughts in Oceania and Asia.
There is little to suggest that an El Nino is anthing more than a
naturally recurring phenomenum, although some scientits have
suggested a link with global warming.
They noted what seems to be increasing frequency in which they
occur.
"El Ninos have been going on for thousands of years, but now
there seems to be more than ever,'' said Trenbeth of the National
Center for Atmospheric Research.
© Reuters Ltd. All rights reserved
© FOX News Network 1997. All rights reserved.
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