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Responsible comments wanted on DRAFT essay



DRAFT - THERMODYNAMICS AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF FOOD PRODUCTION
       by Jay Hanson <jhanson@ilhawaii.net> 11/01/96

All matter and energy in the universe are subject to the Laws
of Thermodynamics.  In thermodynamics, there is a concept called
"entropy" that can be thought of as a measure of disorder in a
system.  For example, the entropy of glass increases if it
breaks.(1)

What does thermodynamics have to do with the sustainability of
food production? Sustainable systems are "circular" because all
linear physical systems must eventually end. Modern agriculture
is increasing entropy (disorder(2)) in both its sources (e.g.,
energy, soil, and ground water) and its sinks (e.g., ground
water and soil). Thus, modern agriculture is not circular --
it can not be sustained.

Let's consider the most important limiting variable - energy.(3)

40 years ago, geologist M. King Hubbert developed a method for
projecting future oil production and predicted that U.S. oil
production in the lower-48 states would peak about 1970. These
predictions have proved to be remarkably accurate. Both total
and peak yields have risen slightly compared to Hubbert's
original estimate, but the timing of the peak and the general
downward trend of production were correct.(4)

In March of this year, World Resources Institute published a
report that stated:

"Two important conclusions emerge from this discussion. First,
 if growth in world demand continues at a modest 2 percent per
 year, production could begin declining as soon as the year 2000.
 Second, even enormous (and unlikely) increases in EUR oil buy
 the world little more than another decade (from 2007 to 2018).
 In short, unless growth in world oil demand is sharply lower
 than generally projected, world oil production will probably
 begin its long-term decline soon -- and certainly within the
 next two decades."(5)

Well, so much for oil! Should we be alarmed?

To really understand the implications of oil depletion, one
must stop thinking of the "dollar cost" of oil, and take a
look at the "energy cost" of oil. We note that the energy cost
of domestic oil has risen dramatically since 1975.(6) As oil
becomes harder and harder to find and get out of the ground,
more and more energy is required to recover each barrel. In
other words, the increasing energy cost of energy is due to
increasing entropy (disorder) in our biosphere.

Optimists tend to assume that the "type" of energy we use is not
significant (e.g., liquid vs. solid), that an infinite amount of
social capital is available to search for and produce energy,
and that an infinite amount of solar energy is available for
human use. Realists know that none of these assumptions is true.

In fact, all alternative methods of energy production require
oil-based energy inputs and are subject to the same inevitable
increase in entropy. Thus, we can see that there is NO solution
to the energy (entropy or disorder) problem, and the worldwide
energy-food crisis is inevitable.

When we can no longer subsidize modern agriculture with massive
fossil energy inputs (oil-based pesticides and fertilizers,
machine fuel, packaging, distribution, etc.), yields WILL drop
to what they were before the Green Revolution!(7) Moreover,
billions of people could die this coming century when the U.S.
is no longer able to export food(8) and mass starvation sweeps
the Earth.
                            . . .
              THE ANCIENT PROPHESY REMAINS TRUE
  And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat
  on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was
  given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill
  with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the
  beasts of the earth.                     -- Revelations 6:8
                            . . .
1. p. 43, Peet, 1992.

2. Here I define "order" as the evolved order of our
   biosphere as of, say, 25,000 years ago.

   See H. T. Odum's concept of "emergy" at:
   http://csf.Colorado.EDU/authors/hanson/page17.htm#ODUM

3. http://www.igc.apc.org/millennium/g2000r/fig13.html

4. p. 55, Gever et al., 1991. See Also:
   http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/gifs/oil_f4-5.html

5. http://www.wri.org/wri/energy/jm_oil/index.html

6. http://csf.Colorado.EDU/authors/hanson/page20.htm

7. p. 27, Gever et al., 1991.

8. http://csf.Colorado.EDU/authors/hanson/page40.htm


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