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Feral weather forcasting




Anybody like to add to observations or the non sexist equivalents to old
wives 
tales on forcasting the weather?  This lot is from South-eastern Australia.

Supplemant to Beths Farm Newsletter.
I'm told Sid Kidman, known as the Cattle King, who left home at 14 with
little money and went on to own more of the British Commonwealth than
any other person, attributed much of his success to his ability to
fortell the comming seasons and he learnt from the Aboriginies.

The Gippsland Times (I think in 1885) said that they had the wettest
winter for 20 years and the wet winter had been predicted by the local
Aboriginies.

In 1996 I did a Permculture Design Certificate Course with Mal and Jo
Haywood and two of their tutors were Bea and Gidja, who told us of
Koorie culture and land use.  I asked about understanding comming
weather patterns as I have heard of a number of other instances of the
indiginous people throughout Australia fortelling comming weather.

Bea said it was in part from the accumulation of knowledge passed down
the generations as the weather followed cycles and part from observation
of nature.  She then said (in 1996) that she was expecting a severe
drought during part of the comming 5 years and the prediction was
totally spot on.  She attributed the prediction to a unusually heavy
seed set on some of thenative vegetation.

As a beekeeper I had noted some of the best years for honey production
preceeded droughts and attributed this to the trees intention to have a
good seed set in the event of a hot bushfire, which would be more
probable in a drought year.

It would seem that sunspot activity is a major influence on our weather
and sunspot activity is influenced by the alignment of the planets.  Can
our plants relate to the laignment of the planets?  During the 1982-83
drought while it was still very hot and dry, the eucalypts started
putting on lush new growth,without any rain!  Some months later, the
drought broke.  There have been observations of similar efforts by the
eucalypts in predicting the end of dry spells since and I heard of a
grazier in NSW who would buy stock when he saw the eucalypts putting on
the new growth.

Some of our female kangaroos have the ability to mate and hold the
embryo undeveloped for a considerable period, then trigger the
development at a later stage.  From what I have been told, it would
appear that the development starts prior to the breaking of dry spells
and droughts. Scientists were sceptical of Aborigional claims that
little joeys appearing in the pouch indicated the end of a drought.

Anyway, for those of us that live from day to day, how can we go one
better and get an idea of what tomorrows going to be like?

The ants are the foremost weather men (or as far as I know, undeveloped
females) amongst the natural observers.  However it could be that the
ants like humans have townies and ferals and like humans the ferals are
more in tune with nature.   Any self respecting ant in natural bushland
should do its house cleaning prior to rain because they don't want all
those wet feet making the floor muddy.  Ants bringing up the soil from
within their nests and using it to build up the surrounds of their nests
generally preceedes rain.  The townie ants (some of them possibly
introduced?), like our townie weather men don't always get it right.

I'm writing this early in the morning of Wednesday 21/3/01 with the
noise of rain on the roof, some 12 or so hours earlier while taking a
stroll with Jane and Sharon we noted an adult female bullant with fully
developed wings out on the town.  Jane mentioned that she had also seen
one earlier in the day with wings.  As I understand it, the normal
bullants we see are undeveloped females and the winged ones are either
fully developed females out mating or males (which may be smaller) with
the same intent.

There could be a number of reasons for them mating prior to rain, mated
queens intending starting a new nest may find the moist soil easier to
dig.  Bees have evolved mechanisms to avoid inbreeding and ants most
likely have also, the weather conditions prior to rain might be the
trigger that brings them all out together, thus maximising the chance of
a successful mating.  Mating activity of other insects can also precede
rain and the very large moths (Emperor Gum?) may also precede rain,
acccording to Will Trueman, the females need softer damp soil to lay
their eggs.

Mosquitos need water to lay their eggs and the wriglers don't take a
great deal of time to develop into more hungry adults.  I'm told the
females only are the ones that give us a hard time and the reason they
need our blood is to get food to produce eggs.  Mosquito's tend to be
noticably more vigorous prior to rain, so that they can have fully
developed eggs to lay as soon as there is water sitting around.

The black cockatoo's were considered good indicators of rain back in my
native Gippsland, the appearance of the black cocky's probably was a
good indication up till perhaps 25 years ago, however less so today.
Origionally they spent most of their time in the alpine country where
the weather is far more extreme in wet cold periods, so when rain was
comming, down they came into the lower, civilised areas with its more
moderate climate during wet weather.

These beautiful birds haven't become decadent and lost their roots and
with it their ability to predict the weather, they have discovered the
pine seeds as a very reliable food source and spending far more time in
the lower country, irregardless of the weather.

Frogs need water to raise their baby tadpoles and have an evelotionary
advantage if they can mate prior to rain.  Their croaking (mating calls)
can at times be heard prior to a break in a dry spell and they are more
active prior to rain.  Prior to rain, particularly thunderstorms, bees
can be noticably more agressive also.

Anyway, back to longer term predictions.  Some three weeks ago I was
told that the Grey Gum was budded back in Gippsland.  Grey Gum flowers
late autumn and every time it has flowered it has either been a wet
autumn, or in the case of following a dry summer there has always been
an autumn break.  So, I'm expecting somesort of autumn break, the dry
spell not continuing into the winter unbroken.  There is very little new
growth on the trees here at Beths Farm so it mightn't be a really wet
time, however there should be some break from the dry.

I've also been told that the forest red gum is budded well but haven't
had a good look myself, it should flower next November-December.  With
the exception of the year of one of the major commets (mid eighties) it
has been dry summers that it flowered.  So perhaps an autumn break this
year and dry summer again next year?


He who lives by the crystal ball shall eat ground glass.