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Re: Solar Energy
Gary Coffman <gary@ke4zv.atl.ga.us> wrote:
>... There's little reason
>to expect breakthroughs except that trend lines for some disciplines,
>such as microelectronics, plotted from the beginning of the discipline
>to the present might lead one to extrapolate it will continue forever
>in the same fashion. That's a very risky extrapolation, however, as such
>curves have always taken on an 'S' shape as a discipline matures and
>approaches physical limits. You finally reach the point of diminishing
>returns where no matter how much money and effort you expend you can't
>expect breakthroughs that push you much further down that road. 1 kW/m^2
>is one of those limits for solar power, and research already has us
>within the same order of magnitude. Breakthrough advances are unlikely.
I agree, as far as microelectronics, which has some physical limits.
We can't keep doubling the number of transistors on an IC forever, by
making finer lines, etc. But one of the differences to think about is
that there are many ICs in this country, but very few solar heated houses.
One of the reasons is cheap oil.
Why is oil so inexpensive?
Nick