Dissertation Information for Marvin Darter NAME: - Marvin Darter
- (Alias) Marvin Eldridge Darter
DEGREE:
- Ph.D.
DISCIPLINE:
- Business
SCHOOL:
- Georgia State University (USA) (1984)
ADVISORS: - None COMMITTEE MEMBERS: - None
MPACT Status: Incomplete - Inspected
Title: EARNINGS PER SHARE FORECASTING: MAN VERSUS COMPONENT MODEL OF MAN
Abstract: "Paramorphic human information processing research techniques, using the Brunswik lens model framework, have been successfully applied in such diverse areas as graduate admissions, medical diagnosis and loan default prediction. A weakness in applying this methodological approach occurs when the information set consists of a large number of correlated information cues. This study proposes the methodological alternative of Principal Components analysis followed by multiple regression analysis as an appropriate technique to cope with this weakness.
Because of the continuing failure to find a formal forecasting methodology to predict annual corporate earnings per share, and a general consensus that the best available forecasts are expert generated, security analysts' ability to forcast EPS from quantitative information cues has been examined. Models of man have been estimated, and output from these models has been compared with the associated subjects' forecasts as well as published EPS forecasts.
Subjects for the study were eight security analysts employed in the Investment Research Department of a large commercial bank. Annual EPS forecasts were made by each analyst for thirty real companies based only on a predetermined set of quantitative information cues. All qualitative factors, including company name, were withheld. Subject analysts' forecasts, as well as those generated by the corresponding component models, were found to be superior to the published forecasts for the sample under consideration.
The results suggest that the use of component regression in the Brunswik lens model framework has some distinct advantages over the more correlated cues. Secondly, from an applied point of view, the results suggest that this approach could be successfully employed to construct a linear model to be used by security analysts as an aid in the forecasting process."
| |
MPACT Scores for Marvin Darter A = 0
C = 1
A+C = 1
T = 0
G = 0
W = 0
TD = 0
TA = 0
calculated 2008-01-31 06:03:21
Advisors and Advisees Graph
generating graph, please reload |