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Dissertation Information for Thomas Zuehlke

NAME:
- Thomas Zuehlke
- (Alias) Thomas William Zuehlke

DEGREE:
- Ph.D.

DISCIPLINE:
- Economics

SCHOOL:
- University of Florida (USA) (1983)

ADVISORS:
- None

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
- None

MPACT Status: Incomplete - Inspected

Title: ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER PRICE EXPECTATIONS DATA

Abstract: "This study considers econometric modeling of the Survey Research Center (SRC) price expectations data. There are two major difficulties in modeling the SRC data. First, there are two types of censoring. All predictions of deflation and some predictions of inflation are censored. The two-stage estimation methods used previously with these data are inconsistent because the partial censoring of the inflation predictions has been ignored, leading to inconsistent first-stage estimates. Maximum-likelihood estimation methods that account for both types of censoring are presented. Second, the data appear to have been generated by a discontinuous distribution. The difference limen, a minimum perceivable inflation rate, has been used in previous work to construct such a distribution. However, the problems in perception are restricted to the neighborhood of zero inflation, and the resulting estimates of the difference limen are inconsistent with observed predictions.

Two alternatives to the difference limen are considered. The first alternative is based upon the possibility that different responses have been rounded to different degrees. This model is statistically similar to a difference limen model where only some of the people sampled are imperceptive. The advantage of the rounding model is that it can explain discontinuities that occur at points other than just zero inflation, and because of the rounding interpretations, eliminates the need to estimate the range of imperceptibility.

The estimates of this model also provide a means of examining the performance of the cross-section variance of expected inflation as a measure of subjective uncertainty. The estimates suggest that in the absence of a direct measure of uncertainty, the cross-section variance may be a useful alternative.

The second alternative considers the impact of costless predictors on the observed distribution of responses. This model provides a measure of expected inflation for a relatively informed group. While the expectations of this informed group are a better predictor of the actual inflatio"

MPACT Scores for Thomas Zuehlke

A = 0
C = 1
A+C = 1
T = 0
G = 0
W = 0
TD = 0
TA = 0
calculated 2008-01-31 06:05:04

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