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765.84/1101
The Ambassador in Italy (Long)
to the Secretary of State
[Telegram: Paraphrase]
ROME, September 10, 1935—6 p.m.
[Received September 10—4:15 p.m.]
567. In my mind there remains no vestige of
doubt that Italy is irrevocably determined to proceed in Africa and that from
whatever quarter opposition is offered it will be met by subjected mass attack.
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DOCUMENTS
I am convinced from my contacts with the people, from reports of the
attitude of the man on the street and from my observation of the antipathy to
England on the part of the soldier and the civilian that the whole population,
both military and civilian, are in complete accord with Mussolini's policies as
they have been developed up to now and as they are prospected for the future.
The press in every issue gives additional expression to the national
determination to proceed to war and not to tolerate interference from any
source.
The Italian plans have developed step by step
over a period of many months. Now they find themselves with more than 200,000
men south of the Suez Canal and there are more than three more divisions
preparing to go. The withdrawal of those troops would be a defeat and its
effect upon the government here a disaster. Hurried on by a gradually
approaching domestic economic crisis I have a distinct impression that
opposition from England would be welcomed by the Italians as an opportunity for
the demonstration of their imaginary and even possible superior strength in the
Eastern part of the Mediterranean. Malta is only a few minutes by air from the
Italian posts in Sicily, and Cairo, Alexandria, and Port Said are only an hour
removed from the Libyan coast.
The Italian press is heaping abuse upon those
who have the courage to stand up in Geneva and give expression to thought
opposing the Italian aims; it also castigates French and British socialists who
dare to speak of sanctions and inveighs against the united opposition of
bolshevism and the "piracy of plutocracy", as they designate the
Rickett affair, and charges that all of these are joined in a worthless attempt
to stop the progress of Italy.
I have the impression that the Italians are
quite willing to accept the delay which has been occasioned by the Geneva
meetings since they are thus afforded more time for preparation and for the
completion of a number of ships they have recently bought for transport
purposes, which are now being transformed at Genoa. Likewise, I am equally
impressed with the fact that they now find themselves in a position from which
a withdrawal is impossible without suffering in effect a defeat. There is every
indication of a carefully prepared, well-calculated, hard, cold, and cruel
prosecution of preconceived plans by the use of an army and navy which is
almost fanatic in idolatry of and devotion to one man and which is worked up to
an emotional pitch unique in modern times.
It is my wish that I could send some word in
encouragement of the thought that some compromise might be arrived at in Geneva
or elsewhere, but it is my firm belief that a compromise is possible
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only on Mussolini's own terms and that if these terms are not accepted he
will proceed to his objectives despite world opinion and in opposition to
whatever forces may be raised against him. Military capitulation is the only
alternative.
Your attention should be invited at the same
time to the lasting effect necessitated by this situation on international
situations in Europe and on changing political alignments. The settled
friendship between Great Britain and Italy has gone and will not reappear for
generations. In the press today is featured the friendly exchange of
expressions between Chancelor Hitler and the new Ambassador of Italy to
Germany, which presumably is a political warning to France that she must adhere
to her alliance with Italy. But whatever arrangements Italy may be able to make
with Germany in the future and it would appear impossible that a reconciliation
of their clashing interests could be effected, an entirely new element in the
already complicated European situation has been brought about by the changed
situation between Italy and England. The British Empire is directly threatened
by Italy's action in the eastern Mediterranean and if the latter successfully
establishes herself in Ethiopia, the Suez Canal wild be almost as important
politically to Italy as it is to England. If the Canal assumes its present
importance to Italy with 200,000 soldiers south of it, when they achieve their
ambition to have 10,000,000 colonists there, it will have a greater importance,
and before long there will develop the necessity for an alternate route of
communication between Italy and Ethiopia through Libya and across the Sudan
which will be part of their efforts to solidify their position in Ethiopia if
they accomplish their objective there. Thus the present situation is fraught
with dangers from many angles for the future as well as for the present and it
is my fear that its reverberations in the international relations of the world
will last at least during the life of the present generation unless a decisive
military defeat is suffered.
LONG