Bruce Klein asks a bunch of folks the question above is a brief survey that looked like this (once I filled it in):
+Paul, quick question… when do you think AI will surpass human-level intelligence?
caveat: AI isn’t attacking the full spectrum of known human intelligence.
In the case of simple to nearly complex logic. AI is there. In the case of
social and emotional and situational intelligences, perhaps never or at
least not until we understand those intelligences well enough to model
that said here’s a stab at general intelligence and AI
+[ ] 2010-20
+[X] 2020-30 (complex logic)
+[ ] 2030-50
+[ ] 2050-70
+[ ] 2070-2100
+[ ] Beyond 2100
+[ ] Prefer not to make predictions
+[X] Other: see caveat above