AGMODELS-L: 199606XX

is the compilation of discussion during Jun 96

via AB4EL Web Digests @ SunSITE

AGROMOMY Homepage @ SunSITE


>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Sat Jun  1 05:19 EDT 1996
Date: Sat, 1 Jun 1996 04:06:49 -0500
Message-Id: <199606010906.AA04601@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 511

Contents:
     Re: Estimating drought extent & severity (DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu>)
     Re: Estimating drought extent & severity ("Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu>)
Re: Estimating drought extent & severity (William Powers <wjp@xdiv.lanl.gov>)
Re: Cereal rows spacing (John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net>)
 (Stanley Tocker <83995@UDel.Edu>)
     Re: Estimating drought extent & severity ("Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu>)



Date: Fri, 31 May 96 08:46:47 EDT From: DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity Rodney Beard wrote: (edited) >...It is not just the question of using the past record to assess future >risk. For example a common technique of risk assessment is to use >stochastic efficiency criteria (e.g. first, second and higher order >stoichastic dominance). These are based on empirical estimation of the >distribution of a random variable. This is fine as long as the >distribution is stationary, i.e. as long as the data are drawn from a >single distribution. This is rarely checked by people doing risk analysis. >I think that the approach using historical rainfall data does have some >things to offer, but every approach has some adavantages and >disadvantages. For example, the approach I use does not use historical >rainfall data. So model validation can be problematic, although one could >test predicted means and variances against observed to the extent that >observed data is available. > >Regarding prediction of future events. Is this really the desired goal? I >think a more modest but still worthy goal would be to determine >management strategies and policies that work in the face of the >unpredictable. > Recent weather in the US suggests that prediction of the future on the basis of the past may not be as good as we might like; but much of our risk assess- ment only assumes that the distribution will be similar to that in the past; surely that is reasonable. Poor consolation to those exposed to improbable events, of course... Don Wauhcope
Date: Fri, 31 May 96 08:56:27 CDT From: "Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity Don - In terms of weather variability, situation will be different from year to year because no two weather events are exactly alike. However, the occurrence of any weather event is rooted in the long and immediate past events. As at now, our ability to correctly analyze and interprete historical weather data is limited. When we change our approach and method of analysis, there is no doubt that the solution to this problem is easier found than previously thought possible. I have simulated a model that can predict rainfall as much as 6 months in advance by using daily rainfall and temperature values. This model worked well last year and I'm in the second year of testing it. I can predict summer rainfall in any part of the US as early as January. However, the model as at now is structured such that I have to do numerous iterations to bring the result to an acceptable value, but the predicted values have been very highly correlated to the observed value. Models like this will someday in the future be available for determining onset of flood or drought possibilities. Samuel Ogunbo
Date: Fri, 31 May 1996 10:21:42 -0600 From: William Powers <wjp@xdiv.lanl.gov> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity Samuel: This is very interesting. Can you say more about your model? How does it compare with the results and methods used by the High Plains Climate Center (http://hpccsun.unl.edu)? Perhaps you can share some of your predictions. bill powers Los Alamos, NM
Date: Fri, 31 May 1996 07:46:20 -0500 From: John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net> Subject: Re: Cereal rows spacing UNSUBSCRIBE
Date: Fri, 31 May 1996 18:01:14 -0400 (EDT) From: Stanley Tocker <83995@UDel.Edu> Subject: Please unsubscibe
Date: Fri, 31 May 96 18:40:19 CDT From: "Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity Bill: The result of my model is not comparable with those of NCEP who are the makers of the Long-Lead outlook featured by the High Plains Climate Center. My methods are different too since they use cannonical correlation analysis as well as GCM Models in arriving at their predictions. I use the SAS method of multiple regression analysis after having arranged my historical weather data and then subject the data to series of tests including linearity, non- constancy of error term, non-normality of error term and a host of other testing methods to arrive at my predictions. So, I then have a site specific prediction say in inches of rainfall that can be expected. For instance, I live in Columbia, MO and my prediction for 1996 summer (May - Sept) is 37 inches. The normal for this period is in the 20's which means that it'll be wet here. In 1993, we had about 42 inches. Hence the fallacy being propagated that the events of 1993 can only occur once in 2000 years is not true, at least according to my model. My rainfall prediction for MAy was 8 inches while the normal is about 3.5 inches. Now, we've got 6.5 inches already and as I'm writing this, it's raining outside. I made these predictions way back in January and so far I'm pleased with the results. I tested the model last year and it worked well here. This year, I'm encouraging people who might be interested to give me their data for a free analysis. It is my hope to begin a consultancy service for Long-Range weather forecasting next year depending on how satisfied people who receive my services this year are. If you are interested in my prediction outlook for your area, please send DAILY MAX MIN Temp and Rain for your area from January 1980 to MArch 1996 on a disk to: Samuel Ogunbo, 203 Waters Hall University of Missouri, Columbia MO 65211. It'll take about 1-2 weeks depending on my schedule before sending the result back. If you have more questions, you can E-mail me. Samuel Ogunbo.
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>From ab4el@ab4el.com Sun Jun  2 00:01 EDT 1996
Date: Sun,  2 Jun 1996 00:01:00 -0500
Message-Id: <19950602000100.ab4el@ab4el.com>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 512 was NOT received

AGMODELS-L digest 512 was NOT received



>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Mon Jun  3 05:22 EDT 1996
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 1996 04:10:09 -0500
Message-Id: <199606030910.AA19327@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 513

Contents:
Sugarcane modelling job in Australia (Brian.Keating@cnetns.tcp.csiro.au (Brian.Keating))
Re: Estimating drought extent & severity ("Robert M. Caldwell" <rcaldwel@hawaii.edu>)



Date: Mon, 03 Jun 1996 10:25:56 +1000 From: Brian.Keating@cnetns.tcp.csiro.au (Brian.Keating) Subject: Sugarcane modelling job in Australia Dear ag-modellers, You or your contacts may be interested in the following job in the Australian tropics. Thankyou for your time. __________________________________________________________________________ Crop and Soil Modeller Sugarcane Systems _________________________________________________________________________ Aus $46K - $63K + Superannuation - 3 year fixed term Co-operative Research Centre for Sustainable Sugar Production CSIRO, Division of Tropical Crops and Pastures, Townsville, Qld. CSIRO Division of Tropical Crops and Pastures is a partner in the Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) for Sustainable Sugar Production, established in 1995 to foster an internationally competitive and environmentally sustainable Australian sugar industry. A diverse range of activities has commenced aimed at defining and minimising environmental impacts, sustaining soil resources in the long-term, and raising productivity and profitability at both the farm and mill scales. Simulation models are used as part of this research to relate crop and soil management and climate to crop productivity, soil quality and losses of water, nutrients and pesticides to the wider environment. Central to the approach is the cropping systems simulator, APSIM, a product of the joint CSIRO/QDPI Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, with staff located in Toowoomba and Brisbane, Qld. The Division and the CRC are seeking to appoint a crop and soil modeller to further develop APSIM modules relevant to the sugar production system and to support their use in a wide range of problem situations in the Australian sugar industry. The position is based in Townsville, but the appointee will travel widely to work with APSRU and CRC staff located throughout the Australian sugar industry. The crop-soil modeller will have a Ph D or equivalent research experience in crop or soil science and be able to demonstrate skills in bio-physical modelling. You must also have excellent communication and interpersonal skills to be effective in operating in a dynamic team environment with considerable interaction with industry and a diverse range of research organisations. Skills in training and support of others in model application would be an advantage. For further information, contact Dr Brian Keating (ph 0733770373, fax 07 33770420), email brian.keating@tcp.csiro.au or Dr K.L. Bristow (ph 077 538596, fax 077 538600), email keith.bristow@tvl.soils.csiro.au For copies of the duty statement and selection criteria for this position, please contact Ms Kathy Mitchell, phone (61)-(0)-7-33770378, fax (61) (0)-7-33713946) Your written application MUST address the Selection Criteria and include the names and contact details (including phone andfax numbers) of at least two professional referees. Applications should be marked 'Confidential', and be forwarded to the Recruitment Officer, CSIRO Division of Tropical Crops and Pastures, Cunningham Laboratory, 306 Carmody Road, St. Lucia Q 4067, by 21st June 1996. CSIRO is an equal opportunity employer ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Brian Keating Research Scientist Div Trops Crops & Past Voice: (61)(07) 33770373 CSIRO Fax : (61)(07) 33770420 306 Carmody Rd Email:Brian.Keating@tcp.csiro.au St Lucia Q 4067 AUSTRALIA -----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 1996 21:18:09 -1000 From: "Robert M. Caldwell" <rcaldwel@hawaii.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity At 07:16 PM 6/1/96 -1000, Rodney Beard wrote: >Most of the risk analysis that I have seen in agriculture is based on the >assumption of stationarity, stochastic efficiency analysis being a prime >example. How strong is the evidence that rainfall distribution is other than stationary? More complex models for weather generators can obviously be developed, but are they needed? Aloha, Robert M. Caldwell, Cropping Systems Department of Agronomy and Soil Science 1910 East West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822; (808) 956-6835; FAX:(808) 956-6539 rcaldwel@Hawaii.edu; http://agrss.sherman.hawaii.edu/caldwell/caldwell.htm (I sponsor mailing lists GCTE3-4-L@Hawaii.edu and CTAHR-L@Hawaii.edu; to subscribe, send the message: SUBSCRIBE GCTE3-4-L firstName secondName, or SUBSCRIBE CTAHR-L firstName secondName, to LISTPROC@Hawaii.edu. I also listen in on mailing lists AGMODELS-L and DSSAT.)
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Wed Jun  5 10:59 EDT 1996
Date: Wed, 5 Jun 1996 09:41:20 -0500
Message-Id: <199606051441.AA09642@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 514

Contents:
Position Announcement (rama@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ramanarayanan Tharacad))



Date: Wed, 5 Jun 1996 09:36:36 -0500 From: rama@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ramanarayanan Tharacad) Subject: Position Announcement ******** POSITION ANNOUNCEMENT ******** Title: Research Scientist Employer: Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Blackland Research Center 808 East Blackland Road Temple, TX 76502 Salary: Salary will be commensurate with experience and qualifications Scope: Hydrologic and water quality modeling Responsibilities: The incumbent will work with a team of scientists involved in a hydrologic modeling project that is using a farm-scale simulation model and a basin scale hydrologic/water quality model for the Lake Waco/Bosque River Basin. Supervision: The incumbent will be supervised by Dr. William Dugas at the Blackland Research Center. Qualifications: The incumbent must have a Ph.D. in agricultural, civil or environmental engineering, a strong background in modeling crops and hydrology, an understanding of a GIS (preferably GRASS), and good programming capability in C and/or FORTRAN. Application Procedure: Applications will be accepted until this position is filled. Interested persons should submit a letter of application, resume, and names of at least three references to: Dr. William A. Dugas Texas Agricultural Experiment Station Blackland Research Center 808 E. Blackland Road Temple, Texas 76502 e-mail: dugas@brcsun0.tamu.edu Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer
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>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Thu Jun  6 10:58 EDT 1996
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 1996 09:44:23 -0500
Message-Id: <199606061444.AA04836@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 515

Contents:
Wind Erosion Symposium (John Tatarko <jt@weru.ksu.edu>)
     Re: Estimating drought extent & severity (DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu>)
     grain equivalents ("Rob Groot, ASK, AB-DLO, Wageningen" <J.J.R.GROOT@ab.dlo.nl>)
Re: Position Announcement (alogden@sun1.ortho.lsumc.edu (Al Ogden))
     Pesticide Property Data (DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu>)



Date: Wed, 5 Jun 1996 10:30:31 -0500 (CDT) From: John Tatarko <jt@weru.ksu.edu> Subject: Wind Erosion Symposium Dear list members, I am pleased to submit the following announcement. Please feel free to post or forward this announcement to your colleagues. Note that a World Wide Web page has been established to keep you informed of the latest information on the Symposium/Workshop. I apologize for multiple copies some of you may receive due to posting of this announcement to other lists. Sincerely, John ------------------------------- Begin ---------------------------- Announcement/Call for papers Wind Erosion: An International Symposium/Workshop Commemorating the 50th anniversary of the USDA's Wind Erosion Research at Kansas State University Manhattan, Kansas, USA 3-5 June 1997 Background Wind erosion is a serious problem in many parts of the world. It is worse in arid and semiarid regions. Areas most susceptible to wind erosion on agricultural land include much of North Africa and the Near East; parts of southern, central, and eastern Asia; the Siberian Plains; Australia; northwest China; southern South America; and North America. Wind erosion physically removes from the field the most fertile portion of the soil. Some soil from damaged land enters suspension and becomes part of the atmospheric dust load. Dust obscures visibility and pollutes the air, causes automobile accidents, fouls machinery, and imperils animal and human health. During the 1930s, a prolonged dry spell in the prairies of North America culminated in dust storms and soil destruction of disastrous proportions. The "black blizzards" of the resulting Dust Bowl inflicted great hardships on the people and the land. Following the "dirty thirties", the U.S. Department of Agriculture started an intensive research program on wind erosion in cooperation with Kansas State University. Today, this laboratory, officially known as the Wind Erosion Research Unit (WERU), continues to serve as a focal point for wind erosion research, both nationally and internationally. This symposium is held in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the USDA's Wind Erosion Research at Kansas State University. The purpose is to bring together leading scientists, conservationists, and policy makers to: identify the present and future wind erosion threat to sustainability; summarize current understanding of wind erosion processes, prediction, and control; identify societal needs and develop strategies for sustaining agriculture, protecting the environment, and conserving the natural resource against the ravages of wind erosion. Program Scientists, engineers and conservationists are invited to present papers and/or attend sessions related to the occurrence, measurement, and prediction and control of wind erosion and related processes and consequences. Plenary, concurrent, and poster sessions are planned. Keynote addresses will feature various aspects of wind erosion. Publication Abstracts for all presentations will be available at the symposium. The symposium manuscripts will be reviewed and considered for publication in a Special Edition of the Journal of Soil and Water Conservation that will be mailed to all registered symposium participants. CALL FOR PAPERS Authors intending to offer an oral/poster presentation are required to submit an abstract (English preferred) of no more than one-page by 31 December 1996. Abstracts should include in this order: author, title, text, and corresponding author's address and telephone number. Submit abstracts (preferably by e-mail) and participation form to: sym@weru.ksu.edu or symposium abstracts c/o USDA, ARS Wind Erosion Throckmorton Hall, KSU Manhattan, Kansas 66506 USA Manuscripts submitted will be reviewed and considered for publication in a special issue of the Soil and Water Conservation Society Journal. General The registration fee for the conference will be approximately $200. This fee includes three lunches, one banquet, one picnic dinner/tour of the Konza Prairie, refreshment breaks, a copy of the abstracts, and the special Symposium issue of the Soil and Water Conservation Society Journal. Housing will be available at campus residence halls for approximately $125 (4 nights, 3 breakfasts). Rooms are also available at the local Ramada Inn for approximately $59 per night plus tax; no meals are included. All fees are in US dollars. Registration forms, abstract forms, and symposium brochure will be mailed to those who return the "Intent to Participate" form (see attached form). Future announcements and current information about the symposium can be accessed through the World Wide Web URL: http://www.weru.ksu.edu/ and email: sym@weru.ksu.edu. IMPORTANT DATES - General announcement: May 1996 - Deadline to return "Intent to Participate" form: 30 September 1996 - Brochure mailed: 31 October 1996 - Abstract received: 31 December 1996 - Acceptance Notice mailed: 31 January 1997 - Symposium: 3-5 June 1997 - Manuscripts Due: 30 June 1997 Tentative Program 3 June 1997 08:00 Registration 09:00 Opening keynote address: historical perspective Extent and severity of wind erosion world wide (regions, soil degradation, threat to sustainability, visibility, off-site damage, crop damage, health, etc.) 12:00 Buffet lunch 13:30 Physics of processes Measurements 19:00 Symposium Banquet/Entertainment/Dust Bowl Story 4 June 1997 08:30 Modeling wind erosion and associated processes Supporting data bases (crop, soil, climate, management, etc.) 12:00 Buffet lunch 13:30 Climatology relating to wind erosion Wind erosion and global change 15:30 Poster Presentations 17:30 Tour of the famous Konza Prairie and outdoor buffalo barbecue 5 June 1997 07:30 Posters continued 08:30 Wind erosion control (agroforestry, residues, tillage, wind barriers, soil stabilizers, etc.) Socioeconomic barriers 12:00 Buffet lunch 13:30 Workshop planning session to develop strategies for coping with wind erosion (research, training, technology transfer, policy, etc.) 15:30 Closing session: conclusions and recommendations Possible post symposium training workshop on the USDA Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). Possible field trips/facility tours include: 1. Agroforestry 2. Konza Prairie 3. Tuttle Creek spillway canyon 4. Research activities in Throckmorton Plant Science Center (environmental physics, agronomy, agroforestry, GIS, GPS, etc.) 5. Wind erosion control methods at local field sites 6. Grain Marketing and Production and Research Center 7. Plant Materials Center operated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. 8. American Institute of Baking ----------------------------- cut here ------------------------------ Intent to Participate Form Wind Erosion: An International Symposium/Workshop 3-5 June 1997 - Manhattan, Kansas, USA Title: __________ Family Name: ___________________________ First Name: ____________________________ Organization: _________________________________________________________ Address: _____________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________ Phone: _____________________________________ Fax: _______________________________________ E-Mail: _____________________________________ I plan to attend the Symposium/Workshop yes( ) no( ) I propose a contribution oral presentation( ) poster( ) For additional information, please return this form (e-mail preferred) before 30 September 1996. Abstract will be due by 31 December 1996. E-Mail: sym@weru.ksu.edu FAX: USA 913-532-6528 Phone: USA 913-532-6495 Postal Address: USDA-ARS, NPA Wind Erosion Research Unit Throckmorton Hall Kansas State University Manhattan, KS 66506 USA World Wide Web URL: http://www.weru.ksu.edu/ --------------------------- End ----------------------------------
Date: Wed, 05 Jun 96 11:50:53 EDT From: DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating drought extent & severity >I wasn't talking about weather prediction but management of natural and >agricultural systems in the face of weather fluctuations. Arguably one >can treat the weather as random and consequently pastures and crops, etc. >will also fluctuate randomly. Two issues then arise: ...(snip) >Example: consider the problem of a farmer or pastoralist faced with >random weather fluctuations. Isn't it possible that he/she may not >recognize an event such as a drought for what it is, because that >particular tye of weather is outside their range of experience. In which >case we can say that the farmer faces a non-adapted or possibly >anticipatory process. ...(snip)..trying to manage >randomly fluctuating systems, the latter is difficult enough for me. > Maybe I am missing some subtlety but how is "managing randomnly fluctuating systems" possible except by attempting to estimate what the probable range of the fluctuations will be and then preparing a management scheme based on that range? Am I missing something here? Are you only dealing with the fluctuations after they happen? That is management, of course, but it is usually considered the worst way to do it. Please, I am not trying to be cute, I just don't understand the distinction you are making. Don Wauchope
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 1996 09:24:50 +0000 From: "Rob Groot, ASK, AB-DLO, Wageningen" <J.J.R.GROOT@ab.dlo.nl> Subject: grain equivalents Does anyone have any comments? Send to originator...Don ----------------------------Original message---------------------------- ...(snip) I am running a project named 'Scenarios for global food security, with special attention to China'. Within this project, we express food production in so-called 'Grain-Equivalents' (GEs). However, a standard procedure to calculated these GEs does not seem to exist. Anybody having information on the conversion of different food-commodities to GEs, please contact me. ...(snip) Global, regional and national food production is generally expressed in different commodities. FAO (in their yearly published SOFA, State of Food and Agriculture) distinguishes about 30 commodities, but to compare food production between countries, regions etc. we need one single commoditidy, which is generally called the grain- or wheat equivalent. This implies that even meat can be expressed in grain equivalents... ...(snip) Once we are able to express national production figures in this standardized commodity, we will make a comparison with potential or attainable production figures, which we obtain with a simple and straighforward food production model (very well documented for those who are interested). Finally we arive at a global yield-gap distribution. Our GIS-based modeling approach allows us to zoom in on various regions, countries, and to serve our clients (generally policy-makers) according to their specific wishes. ------------------------------------------------------------------ J.J.Rob Groot, Project Leader "World Food Production" AB-DLO, Research Institute for Agrobiology and Soil Fertility P.O.Box 14 6700 AA WAGENINGEN The Netherlands phone : + 31 317 47 59 34 fax : + 31 317 47.57.87 EMAIL : j.j.r.groot@ab.dlo.nl -------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 6 Jun 1996 08:27:28 -0500 From: alogden@sun1.ortho.lsumc.edu (Al Ogden) Subject: Re: Position Announcement TO Agmodels, I am happy to see such job announcements on the list. I really don't want to stir up a controversy in state or federal politics but I feel I must. For the job listing at the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station I have one small question. How can an institution be an "Affirmative Action" as well as an "Equal Opportunity" Employer? Sincerely, Alan Lee Ogden, BSME
Date: Thu, 06 Jun 96 10:28:04 EDT From: DON WAUCHOPE <DON@tifton.cpes.peachnet.edu> Subject: Pesticide Property Data I received a request from Joe Bagdon of NRCS for a set of "selected values" of pesticide environmental property data for some newer pesticides not currently listed in the ARS or NRCS databases. Attached is my response. I would appreciate any comments or corrections any one would like to propose! These numbers tend to quickly take on a life of their own and I would appreciate corrections now...Don PS--apparently square brackets may not transport well to some systems. ====================== Joe: Here are values for the compounds mentioned, obtained from standard references. Citations are given in parentheses, footnotes in brackets. My Selected values for "near 25C" are preceded by an "SV". ACETOCHLOR Half-life (d): 8-18 (1) SV 14 d Koc: 170 E [1]; 98, 158, 115, 137 (2) SV 150 mL/g Vapor pressure: 25C: 4.53 nPa (1)[2]; 25C: 3.4x10-8 mm (2) SV 3.4x10-8 mm Hg Solubility in water: 223 mg/l at 25C (1,2) SV 223 mg/L CHLORETHOXYPHOS Half-life (d): 2-3d (1) aerobic: 7,20 (1) SV 3 d Koc: 9000 E [4] SV 9000 E mL/g Vapor pressure: 20C: 8.0x10-4 mm (1); 25C: 1.7x10-3 mm (3) SV 1.7x10-3 mm Hg Solubility in water: < 1 mg/L (1); 0.1 E [4] SV 0.1 E mg/L DIMETHANAMID Half-life (d): 8-43 (1); avg. 20, range 7-42 (2) SV 20 d Koc: Kd 0.7-3.5 (1); adsorption: 155, 165, desorption: 165, aged 30d: 1468 [3](2) SV 160 mL/g Vapor pressure: 25C: 2.76x10-4 mm (1,2) SV 2.76x10-4 mm Hg Solubility in water: 25C: 1.2 g/L (1); 25C: 1174 mg/L (2) SV 1174 mg/L HALOSULFURON-METHYL Half-life (d): aerobic: 9-14, 14-18, anaerobic: 19-27, field: 4-12, 34, 18, 6, 9 (2) SV 14 Koc: 94, 114, 199, 31.1 (2) SV 100 E [6] Vapor pressure: 25C: 2.8x10-12 mm (2) SV 2.8x10-12 Solubility in water: pH 5/20C: 15 mg/L, pH7/20C: 1630 mg/L (1,2) SV 1630 mg/L (pH 7) pKa: 22C: 3.44 (1); 3.5 (2) SV 3.44 TEFLUTHRIN Half-life (d): 5C: 150, 20C: 24, 30C: 17 (1) SV 24 d Koc: 20000 E [5] SV 20000 E Vapor pressure: 20C: 6.0x10-5 mm, 40C: 3.8x10-4 mm (1) SV 6.0x10-5 mm Hg Solubility in water: pH 5-9: 0.02 mg/L (1) SV 0.02 mg/L References: (1) Tomlin, C. The Pesticide Manual, 10th Edition, Crop Protection Publications, Bear Farm, Binfield, Bracknell, Berks RG12 5QE, United Kingdom (2) Herbicide Handbook, 7th Edition, Weed Sci. Soc. Amer, Champaign IL 61821 (3) Meister, R.T. Farm Chemicals Handbook '95. Meister Publishing Company, Willoughby, OH. Notes: [1] Should be almost identical to alachlor [2] Should this be microPascals? Recommend the WSSA value. [3] All ref. 2 values are avgs. of 4 soils [4] cf. terbufos with 4 less chlorines; soly may be even less [5] Based on soly and equation 15 in Hornsby, et al., Pesticide Properties in the Environment, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1996. [6] pH dependent
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>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Fri Jun  7 11:02 EDT 1996
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 1996 09:45:26 -0500
Message-Id: <199606071445.AA01791@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 516

Contents:
 (Robert Tetrault <tetrault@axp11.ccc.usda.gov>)
     Weather Generator (AGME037@UNLVM.UNL.EDU)



Date: Thu, 6 Jun 1996 14:44:53 -0400 From: Robert Tetrault <tetrault@axp11.ccc.usda.gov> Subject:
Date: Fri, 07 Jun 96 09:21:45 CDT From: AGME037@UNLVM.UNL.EDU Subject: Weather Generator Most of the weather generator programs use daily weather data to generate daily weather data either with the same or different statastical properties as the original data set. Does anyone know of a weather generator program that uses daily weather data as an input but generates hourly values ? We want to use these data as inpput into Cupid, a mechanistic plant environment model. Thanks for your help. ----- XUE, QINGWU DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA LINCOLN, NE 68583 (402)472-7035 E-MAIL: AGME037@UNLVM.UNL.EDU
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>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Sun Jun  9 13:43 EDT 1996
Date: Sun, 9 Jun 1996 12:31:36 -0500
Message-Id: <199606091731.AA26470@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 517

Contents:
 (Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar>)



Date: Sun, 9 Jun 1996 12:10:31 -0500 From: Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar> Subject: unsubscribe
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Mon Jun 10 13:45 EDT 1996
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 1996 12:32:14 -0500
Message-Id: <199606101732.AA10781@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 518

Contents:
re: Weather Generator (<Guido.Wyseure@agr.kuleuven.ac.be>)
Re: Weather Forecasting (William Powers <wjp@xdiv.lanl.gov>)
Re: Weather Forecasting (William Tollner <btollner@bae.uga.edu>)



Date: Mon, 10 Jun 96 10:11:20 CET From: <Guido.Wyseure@agr.kuleuven.ac.be> Subject: re: Weather Generator Dear XUE, The problem of rainfall generation can be tackled in a number of ways. On way is by the Neyman-Scott approach. A possible contact is P.S.P.Cowpertwait@Newcastle.ac.uk Engineering maths at University of Newcastle upon Tyne. The rest of the variables could be linked to the rainfall, but I am not aware of any attempts other than intentions by different people. AGME037@UNLVM.UNL.EDU Wrote: | | Most of the weather generator programs use daily weather | data to generate | daily weather data either with the same or different | statastical properties as | the original data set. Does anyone know of a weather | generator program that | uses daily weather data as an input but generates hourly | values ? Dr. ir. Guido Wyseure tel +32 16 321536 (direct) fax +32 16 321994(agr.eng) Faculty of Agricultural and Applied Biological Sciences/ K.U.Leuven Kardinaal Mercierlaan 92 B- 3001 Leuven Belgium
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 1996 10:18:13 -0600 From: William Powers <wjp@xdiv.lanl.gov> Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting Recently, weather prediction has become a consistent topic of conversation. I am particularly interested in middle-term forecasting, on the order of 6-12 months. Many authors claim that neural net formulations are superior to traditional regression methods (e.g., Box-Jenkins) both in computational efficiency and in predictability (e.g., Werbos). I have made a reasonable attemtpt at finding reference to researchers who have employed neural nets for midterm weather forecasting without any success. I'd be interested in the views of the group on the likelihood of success and references to those who have made such attempts at forecasting. TIA, bill powers Los Alamos, NM
Date: Mon, 10 Jun 1996 13:12:32 -0400 (EDT) From: William Tollner <btollner@bae.uga.edu> Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting Hello ag modelers: The request for information by Bill Powers prompts me to ask a slightly more general question: What work has been published wherein Neural Nets-based methods were compared with traditional statistics based approach? In addition to the example raised by Bill concerning Box-Jenkins vs Neural nets for weather forcasting, can other examples also be cited? I am working with a student who is evaluating Neural nets vs Discriminant analyses for classification purposes. Any citations along these lines would be appreciated as well. Any citations along these lines would be greatly appreciated. Bill Tollner btollner@bae.uga.edu
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Tue Jun 11 14:14 EDT 1996
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 1996 12:42:25 -0500
Message-Id: <199606111742.AA02124@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 519

Contents:
Re: Weather Forecasting  (ypachepsky@asrr.arsusda.gov)
Drought in Australia ("David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au>)



Date: Tue, 11 Jun 96 01:30:58 PDT From: ypachepsky@asrr.arsusda.gov Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting Dear Bill, your student might find something useful in following publications: Deck, S.H., C.T. Morrow, P.H. Heinemann, H.J. Sommer III. 1995. Comparison of a neural network and traditional classifier for machine vision inspection of potatoes. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, Vol. 11(2):319-326. Gimblett, R.H. and G.L. Ball. 1995. Neural Network architectures for monitoring and simulating changes in forest resource management. AI Applications, Vol. 9(2)103-123. Guan, T.B, and G.Z. Gertner. 1995. Modeling individual tree survival probability with a random optimization procedure: An artificial nerual network approach. AI Applications Vol. 9(2):39-52. 1995. Mapping environmental carrying capacity using an aritificial neural network: a first experiment. Land Degradation & Rehabilitation, Vol.(6):17-28. Maren, A.J., C.T.Harston, and R.M.Pap. 1990. Handbook of Neural Computing Applications. Academic Press, San Diego. McCord N.M., and W.T.Illingworth. 1990. A Practical Guide to Neural Nets. Addison -Wesley, Reading, Mass. Pattie, D.C., and Glenn Haas. 1996. Forecasting Wilderness Recreation and Use: Neural Network vs. Regression. AI Applications, Vol.10(1):67-74 Regards Yakov ---------------Original Message--------------- Hello ag modelers: The request for information by Bill Powers prompts me to ask a slightly more general question: What work has been published wherein Neural Nets-based methods were compared with traditional statistics based approach? In addition to the example raised by Bill concerning Box-Jenkins vs Neural nets for weather forcasting, can other examples also be cited? I am working with a student who is evaluating Neural nets vs Discriminant analyses for classification purposes. Any citations along these lines would be appreciated as well. Any citations along these lines would be greatly appreciated. Bill Tollner btollner@bae.uga.edu ----------End of Original Message---------- ------------------------------------- Name: yakov pachepsky E-mail: ypachepsky@asrr.arsusda.gov (yakov pachepsky) USDA:ARS:BA:NRI:RMSL Bldg 007 Rm 008 BARC-WEST Beltsville, MD 20705 Tel 301-504-74-68 Fax 301-504-58-23 -------------------------------------
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 1996 18:11:36 -0700 From: "David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au> Subject: Drought in Australia Benjamin and others Drought definition, as always, depends on whether you are referring to meteorological, agricultural or hydrological drought, and why you are defining it. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology publishes maps of annual rainfall in the first decile, as well as definitions of severe and serious deficiency. These, whilst very helpful, often do not give a full insight into agricultural drought - where it depends on the agricultural system (Australia has a subtropical environment in the north with summer monsoons, a temperate winter rainfall environment in the south, and a large very arid interior), and the timing and duration of the rain, set in a historical context. I suggest you read White, D.H., Collins, D. and Howden, M. (1993). Drought in Australia: Prediction, Monitoring, Management and Policy. In Drought Assessment, management and planning: theory and case studies (edited by Don Wilhite), Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 213-236. and White, D.H. and O'Meagher, B.J. (1995). Coping with Exceptional Droughts in Australia. Drought Network News (edited by Don Wilhite), June 1995, 7(2), 13-17. http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/austral.htm There are a number of researchers throughout Australia using agronomic models (wheat, grassland, rangeland) looking at the extent and severity of drought over the past 100 years and placing these in a historical context; undertaking contracts and reporting back to me. The short answer - there is no simple definition of drought. Yes, Benjamin, drought is a major problem in Australia which has arguably the highest climate variability of any continent and is very much under the influence of El Nino. The National Drought Policy was ratified by the Commonwealth (Federal) and State Governments in 1992, with an emphasis on farmers achieving much greater self-reliance in managing their properties. Prior to that drought was treated under the National Disaster Relief Arrangements. There is a lot of climate variability and related research in the agricultural sector aimed at reducing the impact of drought and fostering self-reliance. David White Bureau of Resource Sciences ___________________________ > > I would be pleased if you could help me with the following? > > I am looking for information on drought in Australia. How it is defined? > How significant a problem is it, and how have government policies towards > drought relief changed over the years. > > With thanks in advance, > > Benjamin R. Jotkowitz > brj@yoyo.cc.monash.edu.au >-- End of excerpt from Gommes, Rene (SDRN) -- David H White Senior Principal Research Scientist Bureau of Resource Sciences P.O. Box E11, Queen Victoria Terrace Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia Phone: 61 6 272 4741; Fax 61 6 272 4896 Email: dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au .. w dhw@acslink.net.au .. h
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Wed Jun 12 14:34 EDT 1996
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 13:18:20 -0500
Message-Id: <199606121818.AA22592@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 520

Contents:
Digital rainfall map ("Gommes, Rene (SDRN)" <Rene.Gommes@fao.org>)
      Re: coffee ("Graham Russell" <GRUSSELL@srv0.bio.ed.ac.uk>)
Limitation of N in the soil on grass growth (Lianhai Wu <Lianhai.Wu@mv.slu.se>)
unsubscribe (OKSPARKMAN@aol.com)



Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 07:54:00 +0002 From: "Gommes, Rene (SDRN)" <Rene.Gommes@fao.org> Subject: Digital rainfall map Hello everyone on AGROMET-L and AGMODELS-L A colleague of mine is looking for digital maps (raster OR vector) of annual rainfall covering the Middel East and/or ASIA Is anyone aware of such a map? Pls post replys to agromet-L Thanks R. Gommes
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 09:40:10 +0000 From: "Graham Russell" <GRUSSELL@srv0.bio.ed.ac.uk> Subject: Re: coffee Dear list members, A colleague of mine who is managing coffee plantations in China is trying to find quantitative information on the effect of water status and nutritional status on the rate of leaf appearance in coffee. He would appreciate any information or references that he could read when he returns to Europe on leave. Has anyone actually produced a coffee model that he could use? Thank you Graham Russell Dr G. Russell University of Edinburgh Institute of Ecology & Resource Management (Agriculture Building) West Mains Road Edinburgh EH9 3JG SCOTLAND International phone +44 131 535 4063 Fax +44 131 667 2601 UK phone 0131 535 4063 Fax 0131 667 2601
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 16:47:33 +0200 From: Lianhai Wu <Lianhai.Wu@mv.slu.se> Subject: Limitation of N in the soil on grass growth Dear all, Several weeks ago I asked information or reference on the quantative expression of the relationship between the grass development and environmental factors. Thanks for the netter's reply, the information I have got will definitely play a role in the model construction. Now I have another question. Does anyone know the threshold of nitrate concentration in the soil (NO3+NH4) at which the grass growth will cease? Any comment and information will be appreciated. Thanks for your help! Lianhai Wu ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Dr. Lianhai Wu Soils Department SAC West Mains Road Edinburgh EH9 3JG Scotland, UK TEL: +44 131 535 4171 FAX: +44 131 667 2601 Email: ESA646@ED.SAC.AC.UK Lianhai.Wu@MV.SLU.SE Lianhai.Wu@ED.AC.UK ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 11:29:09 -0400 From: OKSPARKMAN@aol.com Subject: unsubscribe Please unsubscribe.
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Thu Jun 13 14:30 EDT 1996
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 13:18:33 -0500
Message-Id: <199606131818.AA14364@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 521

Contents:
unsubscribe (John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net>)
Re: Digital rainfall map (John_P._Carbone@rohmhaas.com (John P. Carbone))
 (xgrover@vt.edu (Gordon E. Groover))
 (John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net>)
FAO Land and Water Newsletter (bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it (Luca Bechini, PhD student))
Re: GRASS model (bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it (Luca Bechini, PhD student))
Re: GRASS model (Tom Hodges <thodges@tricity.wsu.edu>)



Date: Wed, 12 Jun 1996 14:47:28 -0500 (CDT) From: John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net> Subject: unsubscribe Unsubscribe
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 08:01:35 -0400 From: John_P._Carbone@rohmhaas.com (John P. Carbone) Subject: Re: Digital rainfall map Perhaps one could link data bases for climate such as the Global Daily Summary from the NAtional Climatic Data Center in Ashville NC with somthing like ArcView of MapInfo etc. What one would need would be some form of Map unit indicator.
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 09:08:19 -0400 From: xgrover@vt.edu (Gordon E. Groover) Subject: Does anyone have information of the pasture growth model called GRASS? Developed by J.A. Baars. This is the only information I have to go by. Any help would be appreciated, e-mail address, phone numbers, etc. Thanks, Gordon E. Groover Extension Economist, Farm Management Department Ag and Applied Econ (0401) Va. Tech Blacksburg, Va. 24061 Phone: 540-231-5850 Fax: 540-231-7417 e-mail: xgrover@vt.edu
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 11:48:10 -0500 (CDT) From: John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net> Subject: Unsubscribe
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 18:03:57 +0100 From: bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it (Luca Bechini, PhD student) Subject: FAO Land and Water Newsletter Is anyone interested in this new mailing list? Regards Luca ---------------------------- Original message --------------------------------- >Date: Sat, 8 Jun 1996 07:43:42 -0400 >Reply-To: npsinfo@unixmail.rtpnc.epa.gov >Originator: npsinfo@unixmail.rtpnc.epa.gov >Sender: npsinfo@unixmail.rtpnc.epa.gov >Precedence: bulk >From: "Klohn, Wulf (AGLW)" <Wulf.Klohn@fao.org> >To: Multiple recipients of list <npsinfo@webster.rtpnc.epa.gov> >Subject: FAO Land and Water Newsletter >X-Comment: U.S. EPA NPS INFORMATION EXCHANGE > > > >The Land and Water Development Division (AGL) of the Food and Agriculture >Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has set up an electronic newsletter >called >"Land-and-Water-L" to keep readers informed of the ongoing activities and >publications of the Division. > >The newsletter will provide information, in English, French and Spanish >(where >applicable) on the activities of AGL, such as: > > - Recent publications > - Expert consultations and regional meetings > - How to obtain updated AGL information, including through Internet >access (Web, Gopher, FTP and SMTP) or locally in the countries > - Electronic conferences promoted by AGL > - activities of networks > - other information from correspondants. > >To receive this electronic newsletter, send an E-mail to > >mailserv@mailserv.fao.org > >Leave the subject blank and in the first line of the body of the message put > >the following text : > >Subscribe Land-and-Water-L > >The FAO Mailserv will welcome you and provide information on how to >unsubscribe when you do not wish to receive the Newsletter any more. > > -------------------------------- >Wulf Klohn >FAO-AGL, Rome, Italy >Telephone (39 6) 522 54543 >Fax (39 6) 522 56275 >wulf.klohn@fao.org > -------------------------------- >
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 18:40:08 +0100 From: bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it (Luca Bechini, PhD student) Subject: Re: GRASS model >Does anyone have information of the pasture growth model called >GRASS? Developed by J.A. Baars. This is the only information I >have to go by. Any help would be appreciated, e-mail address, phone >numbers, etc. > >Thanks, > >Gordon E. Groover I don't know this model, but I think that you could try to the following Web sites (collection of Ag-models descriptions). http://www.dlo.nl/camase/srch-cms.html == CAMASE Web site ftp://ftp.hrz.uni-kassel.de/pub/ecosys/models == Download by ftp some models http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/ecobas.html http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/model_db/server.html http://yacorba.res.bbsrc.ac.uk/cgi-bin/somnet-models http://www.gsf.de/UFIS/ufis/ufis_proj.html == UFIS Web site Good luck! Luca ======================================== Luca Bechini, PhD student Institute of Agronomy Via Celoria, 2 Faculty of Agriculture 20133 MILANO University of Milan ITALY tel + 39 - 2 - 70.600.164 fax + 39 - 2 - 70.633.243 e-mail: bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it ========================================
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 1996 10:49:48 -0700 (PDT) From: Tom Hodges <thodges@tricity.wsu.edu> Subject: Re: GRASS model There is a grasmod model from Wageningen in the printed version of the registry but no grass model. If the model developers don't submit their model to the registry it won't get listed! Perhaps the grass model has since been submitted and will be in the online version. Anyway model developers should consider registering their models here, it is a great service provided by CAMASE, Marta Plentinger, Penning de Vries and other people. Tom thodges@tricity.wsu.edu On Thu, 13 Jun 1996, Luca Bechini, PhD student wrote: > >Does anyone have information of the pasture growth model called > >GRASS? Developed by J.A. Baars. This is the only information I > >have to go by. Any help would be appreciated, e-mail address, phone > >numbers, etc. > > > >Thanks, > > > >Gordon E. Groover > > I don't know this model, but I think that you could try to the following > Web sites (collection of Ag-models descriptions). > > http://www.dlo.nl/camase/srch-cms.html == CAMASE Web site > > ftp://ftp.hrz.uni-kassel.de/pub/ecosys/models == Download by ftp some models > > http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/ecobas.html > http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/model_db/server.html > > http://yacorba.res.bbsrc.ac.uk/cgi-bin/somnet-models > > http://www.gsf.de/UFIS/ufis/ufis_proj.html == UFIS Web site > > > > Good luck! > > Luca > > > > > > ======================================== > Luca Bechini, PhD student > > Institute of Agronomy Via Celoria, 2 > Faculty of Agriculture 20133 MILANO > University of Milan ITALY > > tel + 39 - 2 - 70.600.164 > fax + 39 - 2 - 70.633.243 > e-mail: bechini@imiucca.csi.unimi.it > ======================================== > > >
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Fri Jun 14 19:05 EDT 1996
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 13:18:35 -0500
Message-Id: <199606141818.AA04406@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 522

Contents:
Reply to: GRASS model by J.A.Baars (Greg Barkle <BARKLE@lvlham.lincoln.ac.nz>)
NZ GRASS model ("David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au>)
Estimating extent and severity of drought ("David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au>)
Hydrolic Conductivity (John_P._Carbone@rohmhaas.com (John P. Carbone))



Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 10:28:00 GMT+1300 From: Greg Barkle <BARKLE@lvlham.lincoln.ac.nz> Subject: Reply to: GRASS model by J.A.Baars Gordon E Groover wrote: Does anyone have information of the pasture growth model called GRASS? Developed by J.A. Baars. This is the only information I have to go by. Any help would be appreciated, e-mail address, phone numbers, etc. Thanks, Gordon and anyone else that is interested, The model GRASS developed by J.A.Baars is a Regression type model based on apx. 15 years of field data of irrigated vs nonirrigated yield from a pasture of ryegrass/clover mix here in New Zealand. It undertakes a daily waterbalance and depending on soil moisture limitations, daily temperature (soil and air) and daily solar radiation predicts a dry matter growth response. The model was developed when he was with MAF in New Zealand in the mid 80's he has since left what is now Agresearch and is working as a private consultant. The "caretakes" of the original work done by Baars are Mike Rollo - RolloM@Agresarch.cri.nz and Dave McCall - McCallD@Agresarch.cri.nz So you should try them for more information on GRASS. If you wish to contact John Baars with respect to the development then his phone number is 64- 7- 855- 9140, alternatively if you Email to me, I will contact him for you. Regards Greg Barkle > > Gordon E. Groover > Extension Economist, Farm Management > Department Ag and Applied Econ (0401) > Va. Tech > Blacksburg, Va. 24061 > Phone: 540-231-5850 Fax: 540-231-7417 > e-mail: xgrover@vt.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Greg Barkle. | Ruakura Research Centre Research Engineer. | Private Bag 3062. BE.(Agr)Hons.,MSc. | Hamilton, New Zealand. Lincoln Environmental. | Ph: 64-7-838-5383 Email: BARKLE@LVLHAM.LINCOLN.AC.NZ | Fax: 64-7-838-5372 ______________________________________________________________________
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 13:57:31 -0700 From: "David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au> Subject: NZ GRASS model Gordon Koos Baars and Mike Rollo are the developers of the GRASS model that you are seeking information on. Koos is now private consulting. I believe that Mike is still at the Whatawhata Research Station, Private Bag 3089, Hamilton, New Zealand (ph. 64 7 829 8789) Baars, J.A. and Rollo, M.D. (1987). Predictive use of a pasture production model on commercial farms: some examples. Proceedings of the New Zealand Society of Animal Production 47, 39-42. Baars, J.A., Rollo, M.D., Jackson, R.G. and McRobbie, G. (1987). Use and validation of a pasture yield prediction model on dairy farms in the Waikato (New Zealand(. Proceedings of the 4th Animal Science Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies, Hamilton, New Zealand, p. 451. Good luck. David White _____ Does anyone have information of the pasture growth model called GRASS? Developed by J.A. Baars. This is the only information I have to go by. Any help would be appreciated, e-mail address, phone numbers, etc. Thanks, Gordon E. Groover Extension Economist, Farm Management Department Ag and Applied Econ (0401) Va. Tech Blacksburg, Va. 24061 Phone: 540-231-5850 Fax: 540-231-7417 e-mail: xgrover@vt.edu ____ -- David H White Senior Principal Research Scientist Bureau of Resource Sciences P.O. Box E11, Queen Victoria Terrace Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia Phone: 61 6 272 4741; Fax 61 6 272 4896 Email: dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au .. w dhw@acslink.net.au .. h
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 17:17:18 -0700 From: "David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au> Subject: Estimating extent and severity of drought Dear Ag-meteors and Ag-modellers Thanks to all those who responded over the past couple of weeks from the Agromet and Agmodels mailing lists on 'Estimating the extent and severity of drought'. There were many useful comments, both privately and on the mailing lists. Special thanks to Don Wilhite for a progress report on the testing of the Standardised Precipitation Index, which his team at the University of Nebraska (http://enso.unl.edu/ndmc/) appear to be finding a distinct improvement over the Palmer Index. The Palmer Index has been tested in Australia and was found to be no better than an Index based on rainfall alone (Smith, D.I., Hutchinson, M.F. and McArthur, R.J. 1992 Climatic and agricultural drought: payments and policy .... dingle@cres.anu.edu.au). Rodney Beard (on the agmodels-l mailing list) questioned the use of historical data and agronomic models in that neither rainfall or pasture growth are assumed to be generated from stationary distributions. This prompted an appropriate response from Neil Flood and Wayne Hall; few of us believe the distributions are stationary over time. However, if you have to place a current drought in historical context as the basis of advice to government, the use of historical data and agronomic models is likely to be the most defensible approach Rodney suggested examining the hazard rate of farm profits for comparing long less intense droughts with short intense droughts. The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics has developed and is testing a financial stress indicator. Other groups in Australia who have been testing the rangeland and grassland models (for BRS) are also generating cash flows to use as the basis of identifying exceptional drought. I agree with Rodney that a worthy goal is to determine management strategies and policies that work in the face of the [often] unpredictable. That is why we are fostering increased self-reliance in farm management, increasing the ability of land managers to plan for and cope with a variable climate (and to adapt to shifts in climate). There is no doubt that having information on simulated soil moisture and pasture growth (and liveweight growth of sheep or cattle and cash surplus/deficit) gives us more confidence as to the effectiveness of recent rains in assessing a current drought and placing it in historical context. Furthermore, one can often can get an indication as to whether the climatic and agronomic trends are improving or otherwise; whether such trends will continue is another matter which I will leave to the Global Climate (General Circulation) Modellers. What is very apparent is that there have been some major shifts in minimum and maximum temperatures (as well as rainfall) over the past few decades over much of Australia which have major implications for our agricultural systems. Some respondents queried the value of climate forecasting. This depends on the accuracy of the forecasts, the value of a correct forecast to the agricultural system that you are managing, and the penalty associated with an incorrect forecast. Essentially you are dealing with a 2 x 2 matrix: Forecast - Drought - true v false Good season - true v false Australia has a highly variable climate over much of the country. In the north-east of the country (e.g. Queensland) the correlation of the summer (monsoon) rains with the Southern Oscillation Index in the preceding spring is quite high (~75% of the variation accounted for); even more of the variation is accounted for using Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. This relationship enables stocking rate in the rangelands to be adjusted prior to the summer [e.g. McKeon, G.M. and White, D.H. (1992). El Nino and better land management. Search 23: 197-200], or decisions made on the planting of summer crops. The value of the climate forecasts are high, and there is a real opportunity to minimise land degradation/desertification through overstocking given an adverse forecast. Spring rainfall in southern Australia is correlated with the SOI in the preceding winter; the correlation between these varies considerably throughout the south-east and in some areas is very low. The value of Indian Ocean temperatures in improving forecasts in western and southern Australia is being examined by the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre in Melbourne and the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. However, the financial value of even perfect forecasts to sheep farmers in western and northern Victoria (in the south-east of Australia) has been found to be not very great (in part because of insufficient lead time with a 3 month forecast), though there are tangible benefits in terms of animal welfare (fewer deaths) and protecting the soils and vegetation. e.g. Bowman, P.J., McKeon, G.M. and White, D.H. (1995). The impact of long range climate forecasting on the performance of sheep flocks in Victoria. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 46, 687-702. Bye for now. David White ___________ -- David H White Senior Principal Research Scientist Bureau of Resource Sciences P.O. Box E11, Queen Victoria Terrace Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia Phone: 61 6 272 4741; Fax 61 6 272 4896 Email: dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au .. w dhw@acslink.net.au .. h
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 09:23:22 -0400 From: John_P._Carbone@rohmhaas.com (John P. Carbone) Subject: Hydrolic Conductivity I am interested in developing a more in-depth understanding of hydrolic conductivity. Any suggestions regarding literature articles or books.
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Sat Jun 15 18:28 EDT 1996
Date: Sat, 15 Jun 1996 13:18:34 -0500
Message-Id: <199606151818.AA18057@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 523

Contents:
Unsubscribe (John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net>)
Re: Estimating extent and severity of drought ("Robert M. Caldwell" <rcaldwel@hawaii.edu>)



Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 18:44:29 -0500 (CDT) From: John Youderian <jofran@win.bright.net> Subject: Unsubscribe Unsubscribe
Date: Fri, 14 Jun 1996 15:01:44 -1000 From: "Robert M. Caldwell" <rcaldwel@hawaii.edu> Subject: Re: Estimating extent and severity of drought I want to thank David White for his excellent recap of the drought extent/severity discussion, but I continue to need some questions answered, related to the following snippets: At 09:33 PM 6/13/96 -1000, David White wrote: > >Rodney Beard (on the agmodels-l mailing list) questioned the use of >historical data and agronomic models in that neither rainfall or pasture >growth are assumed to be generated from stationary distributions. This >prompted an appropriate response from Neil Flood and Wayne Hall; few of us >believe the distributions are stationary over time. ... >That is why we are fostering increased >self-reliance in farm management, increasing the ability of land managers to >plan for and cope with a variable climate (and to adapt to shifts in climate). How strong is the evidence that the distributions are not stationary over time? What statistical tests are used to identify "shifts in climate"? My concern arises from data that shows major changes in cropping systems driven by the level of rainfall experienced over a short time period (e.g., shifts away from maize to crops that require less rain, and shifts from dryland to irrigated systems, related to rainfall received over the preceding few years). I've inferred that such a short-term perspective is unwise, and that the farmers simply haven't come to grips with the temporal distribution of rainfall expected for the region (which, in my simplistic thinking, I have presumed to be stationary). People -- all of us -- have a tendancy to see pattern in randomness. (Some modeling approaches would practically guarantee finding a pattern in a string of random numbers.) Historical examples exist where people have been convinced that "rainfall was increasing"; they've gambled on it and have wound up being hurt. Adapting "to shifts in climate" may simply push farmers away from a cropping strategy that is efficient in the long-term. Learning to identify "real" climate shifts seems therefore to be crucial. Aloha, Robert M. Caldwell, Cropping Systems Department of Agronomy and Soil Science 1910 East West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822; (808) 956-6835; FAX:(808) 956-6539 rcaldwel@Hawaii.edu; http://agrss.sherman.hawaii.edu/caldwell/caldwell.htm (I sponsor mailing lists GCTE3-4-L@Hawaii.edu and CTAHR-L@Hawaii.edu; to subscribe, send the message: SUBSCRIBE GCTE3-4-L firstName secondName, or SUBSCRIBE CTAHR-L firstName secondName, to LISTPROC@Hawaii.edu. I also listen in on mailing lists AGMODELS-L and DSSAT.)
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Mon Jun 17 04:34 EDT 1996
Date: Sun, 16 Jun 1996 16:15:01 -0500
Message-Id: <199606162115.AA25978@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 524

Contents:
Summary of quantifying  grass development (Lianhai Wu <Lianhai.Wu@mv.slu.se>)



Date: Sun, 16 Jun 1996 22:40:55 +0200 From: Lianhai Wu <Lianhai.Wu@mv.slu.se> Subject: Summary of quantifying grass development Dear netter, I was inquired if I sumrise the information I recieved on quantifying grass development. I apologize that I could not post them in time. As for the question, some messages are concerned the possible references, some are recommandations to refer some other models and some are advince to remind me the complex interactions between grass development and environmental factors. Here I would like to take the opportunity to express my sincere thanks to the people who sent me any information on the problem. The references include as follows: Wilson, J.R. (1982) Environmental and nutritional factors affecting herbage quality. in Hacker, J.B. (ed) Nutritional limits to animal production from pasture. CAB, Farnham Royal. Ecological Modelling (Journal) at URL: http://dino.wiz.uni-kassel.de/ecobas.html The models which are recommend to me are: SPUR2 model (contact Dr. Jon D. Hanson) ALMANAC & EPIC models (contact Jim Kiniry, email: spanel@brcsun0.tamu.edu) GRAZE model (contact Otto Loewer, email: loewer@agen.ufl.edu) Hope this summary could help. Lianhai Wu ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Dr. Lianhai Wu Soils Department SAC West Mains Road Edinburgh EH9 3JG Scotland, UK TEL: +44 131 535 4171 FAX: +44 131 667 2601 Email: ESA646@ED.SAC.AC.UK Lianhai.Wu@MV.SLU.SE Lianhai.Wu@ED.AC.UK ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Mon Jun 17 17:29 EDT 1996
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 1996 16:16:01 -0500
Message-Id: <199606172116.AA16077@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 525

Contents:
Re: Weather Forecasting (muttiah@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ranjan Muttiah))



Date: Mon, 10 Jun 1996 14:44:28 -0500 From: muttiah@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ranjan Muttiah) Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting 1. The curse of dimensionality. The packard ='n for time series reconstruction is commonly used: x(t + P) = f(x(t) ,x(t - DELTA ) , x(t - 2 DELTA ) ~...~ x(t - m DELTA )) where m would be the embedding dimensionality (and DELTA a time delay usually = 1). I believe Takens has shown that m has to be at least twice the dimensionality of the actual system (who knows what the dimensionality of the actual weather is ? : Don't the cray Navier-Stokes (?) based computer models use seven dimensions ?). 2. It might be easier/simpler first just to get NNs to predict whether it would rain or not based on historical data: the past observations might be 00111100011000111 etc. (0 -no rain, 1- rain) and predict this time series, or the probability of wet days following dry days. Raw precipitation amounts by themselves would be v. difficult to predict (at a point). Perhaps some one could comment on how one makes regional precipitation forecasts.
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Tue Jun 18 17:28 EDT 1996
Date: Tue, 18 Jun 1996 16:15:55 -0500
Message-Id: <199606182115.AA11954@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 526

Contents:
Re: Hydrolic Conductivity  ("David A Eckhardt, Hydrologist (Geol), Ithaca, NY "<daeckhar@usgs.gov>)



Date: Tue, 18 Jun 1996 15:07:19 +0000 From: "David A Eckhardt, Hydrologist (Geol), Ithaca, NY "<daeckhar@usgs.gov> Subject: Re: Hydrolic Conductivity On Fri, 14 Jun 1996 08:39:10 -0500 John P. Carbone said: > I am interested in developing a more in-depth understanding of hydrolic > conductivity. Any suggestions regarding literature articles or books. John, There are many sources of information about hydraulic conductivity of porous media... I will offer a few to get you started. Call me if you would like to discuss it. Saturated hydraulic conductivity: Freeze, R.A., and Cherry, J.A., 1979, Ground Water: Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, NJ (introductory, See esp. Chapter 2, pp. 15-81) Bear, J., 1979, Hydraulics of Ground Water: McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York, NY (more advanced, See Ch. 4, pp. 60-82) Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity: Gardner, W.R., 1974, The permeability problem: Soil Science, Vol. 117, pp. 243-249. Brutsaert, W., 1967, Some methods of calculating unsaturated permeability: Trans. American Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 10, pp.400-404. van Genuchten, M. Th., 1980, A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils: Soil Science Society of America Journal, Vol. 44, pp. 892-898. ------------------------------------------------------------------ David Eckhardt Tel: (607)266-0217 ext. 3018 U.S. Geological Survey 903 Hanshaw Road Email: daeckhar@usgs.gov Ithaca, NY 14850-1573 Fax: (607)266-0521
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Wed Jun 19 17:29 EDT 1996
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 1996 16:16:50 -0500
Message-Id: <199606192116.AA14760@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 527

Contents:
     Re: Weather Forecasting ("Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu>)
Re: Weather Forecasting (Ching-pin Tung <cptung@hy.ntu.edu.tw>)
Manure Spreading Schedule RFP ("Anthony J. Esser" <aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov>)



Date: Tue, 18 Jun 96 21:40:12 CDT From: "Samuel O. Ogunbo" <C519117@MIZZOU1.missouri.edu> Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting Hi to all, Rainfall is perhaps the most difficult to predict among all measured weather variables. It's great variability in intensity and distribution from year to year makes long term prediction an arduous task. Many researchers have used Markov Chain to analyze daily rainfall data with the objective of determining the probability of wet or dry days and those of consecutive dry or wet days as well as dry days followed by wet days. I have in fact used this approach myself to obtain the probability of rainfall distribution for a specific city in a West African Country. However, in order to fully understand the techniques of predicting rainfall, I am of the opinion that scientist and researchers should develop or establish those variables which can be said to correlate adequately enough to justify their being used as a predictor in predicting rainfall. Right now I am examining the possibility of correlating temperature to rainfall. When fully estabilished, Models such as this will be very useful because of the availabi lity of temperature and rainfall values for practically any site of conside ration. I think it's very futile to use autocorrelation of rainfall to make rainfall forecasts. We only need to look at other variables, maybe non atmos pheric variables that correlate well with rainfall in order to have a higher level of accuracy in predicting rainfall. Sam.
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 1996 16:33:49 +0800 From: Ching-pin Tung <cptung@hy.ntu.edu.tw> Subject: Re: Weather Forecasting Hi, I believe that rainfall is strongly related to weather types in mid-latitude. Weather types can be classified by atmospheric pressure and othe weather variables. If weather types can be classified and related to rainfall, predicting rainfall from weather types will be more reliable. It's my opinion. Any comment is welcome. Tung ************************************************************************ * Ching-pin Tung * * Associate Research Scientist Tel: +886-2-362-9020 * * Hydraulic Research Lab. Fax: +886-2-362-1923 * * National Taiwan University Email: cptung@hy.ntu.edu.tw * * Taiwan, R.O.C. * ************************************************************************
Date: Wed, 19 Jun 1996 13:02:46 +0000 From: "Anthony J. Esser" <aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov> Subject: Manure Spreading Schedule RFP ***** NOTICE **** REFERRAL FOR PROPOSAL for AGRICULTURAL ORGANIC MATERIAL ALLOCATION PROGRAM (AOMAP) Computerized Agricultural Organic Material Allocation and Spreading Recommendation Program -------------------------------------------------------------------- United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service 441 South Salina Street 5th Floor,Suite 354 Syracuse, New York 13202-2450 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: June 20, 1996 To: Prospective Respondents From: Anthony J. Esser Water Quality Coordinator The purpose of this letter is to solicit your response to the USDA- Natural Resources Conservation Service's call for proposals related to developing a computerized program for the development of manure management plans and manure spreading schedules. We are seeking proposals that will help to satisfy a priority need identified by a NRCS quality improvement process team -- an automated manure management planning\spreading schedule program. A conceptual description of the desired product is described in Attachment A and sample output in Attachment B.. Hardcopies and electronic versions of proposals must be RECEIVED by close of business, Friday July 19, 1996. Any late or incomplete proposals will not be considered. Background USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) provides technical assistance to farmers and landowners for agricultural waste management. Systems are formulated to manage the waste products from the point of origin to ultimate use with consideration given to both on-site and off-site soil, water, air, plant, animal and human resources effects. Landowners are encouraged to implement these plans within the development of a total resource management plan. This Agricultural Waste Management policy of NRCS in New York State is based on the following definitions for nutrient management, manure management and agricultural waste management. NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT: Managing the amount, form, timing and placement of the application of nutrients in an environmentally, economically and agronomically responsible way. MANURE MANAGEMENT: Management of animal manure in an environmentally responsible manner from the time of production to distribution. This includes collection; transfer; daily spread or storage; application; and utilization or as a source of available nutrients for crop production. AGRICULTURAL WASTE MANAGEMENT: Management of on-farm generated wastes in an environmentally, economically and agronomically responsible manner addressing manure, milkhouse waste water, barnyard water, silo leachate and other organic wastes as needed. The policy of USDA-NRCS in New York includes: 1. Technical assistance may be provided in one or more of the following: planning, design, or implementation of an agricultural waste management system; based on landowner needs and consistent with watershed objectives. 2. No design or implementation assistance will be provided until a complete agricultural waste management plan has been developed. 3. For each agricultural waste management plan, a complete inventory and evaluation will be conducted. 4. An agricultural waste management plan, at a minimum, will address nutrient and manure management, milkhouse waste, barnyard water management and silo leachate. 5. On land receiving manure applications soil erosion and concentrated flow control measures will be included as needed. 6. Agricultural waste management plans will insure that an adequate land base exists for utilization of farm generated nutrients or provide alternative methods, which minimize environmental risk, where insufficient land base exists. In order to accommodate the policy in New York, USDA-NRCS and our conservation partners need a computer program to calculate manure production, evaluate spreading/disposal areas available to the farmer, calculate manure loads for those areas, and identify storage needs by season. These calculations are needed for each year of the crop rotation program on the farm. Proposal Guidelines A one page cover sheet must be completed and submitted which provides a clear and concise summary of the project. A more detailed workplan and timetable, not to exceed eight pages as outlined in Attachment C, must accompany the cover sheet. Evaluation Criteria All proposals submitted to USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service will be reviewed, prioritized, and recommended for contract based on how well the proposed work relates to implementation of the Agricultural Waste Management Policy. In addition to relevancy to the policy, proposals will be reviewed on the basis of technical merit, the qualifications of the principle investigators, and the reasonability of the budget request. Projects which provide matching funds or can otherwise be co- funded with other sources of money are encouraged. Proposals will be reviewed by a technical review panel assembled by the RFP contacts. Funding Funding for this referral for proposal will be limited to a total sum of $15,000.00. Products purchased through any contracts resulting from this RFP will be the sole ownership of the USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service who will retain distribution rights. Contacts Proposals should be submitted to Anthony J. Esser, Water Quality Coordinator, USDA-NRCS, 441 South Salina Street, 5th Floor, Suite 354, Syracuse, NY 13202-2450; Phone: (315) 477-6536, Fax: (315) 477-6550, e-mail: aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov. Should you have any questions regarding this proposal for referrals, please call Anthony J. Esser, Water Quality Coordinator at (315) 477-6536 or Frederick B. Gaffney, Agronomist at (315) 477-6530. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATTACHMENT A AGRICULTURAL ORGANIC MATERIAL ALLOCATION PROGRAM EXPECTED PRODUCTS The management of agricultural organic material (AOM) is an important aspect of Whole Farm or Total Resource Planning and Management. AOM includes, but is not limited to: manure, milkhouse waste, silage leachate and crop processing by-products. It is also an essential component of agricultural nonpoint source pollution prevention and reduction. In order to provide the farmer with sound planning advice which helps to reduce the potential of nonpoint source pollution from use and distribution of agricultural organic waste on New York farms, the USDA-NRCS and its conservation partners need an agricultural organic material allocation program (AOMAP). The purpose of an agricultural organic material allocation program would be to calculate the amount of organic waste produced and imported on the farm and the generalized crop needs of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. The objective of the program is to help the farmer develop a organic material allocation scheme that balances field by field usage of waste to crop needs and calculate surpluses and/or deficiencies. Annual estimates of the volume of organic waste produced on the farm and the nutrient needs for each field and disposal areas will be made for a period of time equal to the duration of the longest crop rotation on the farm (10-12 year rotations are not unusual) The program should allow the planner to identify field by field limitations, both spatial and temporal, for the utilization of manure and other organic material. The program should calculate the most critical storage needs during the rotation. Specific output considerations required by both the planner and farmer are: Planner needs - by year; for a period of time equal to the duration of the longest crop rotation on the farm: ? Volume/amount of manure and other agricultural organic material. ? Pounds of N-P2O5-K2O per unit of Agricultural Organic Material (AOM) based on either manure tests or default values.. ? Total AOM N-P2O5-K2O available to farmer. ? Dollar value of nutrients in AOM as fertilizer. ? Totals acres of farmland available to receive manure applications. ? Totals acres of other land utilized for AOM applications. ? Field by field estimates of nutrient needs by crop and cropping sequence based on either soil tests or guidelines provided in "1996 Cornell Recommends for Integrated Field Crop Management". ? Annual estimates of AOM/crop nutrient need mass balances for duration of rotation. ? Assessment of critical AOM storage needs. ? Identification of high risk fields. ? Evaluation of pathogenic concerns. ? Capability to input notes and comments which can be appended to the farmer's output. Farmer needs: ? Number of loads per field based on farmer's defined spreader(s) size. ? Pounds of N-P2O5-K2O per acre applied to field from proposed spreading schedule. ? Pounds of N-P2O5-K2O required by the crop, by field. ? Net surplus or deficit of N-P2O5-K2O applied to fields as a result of spreading schedule. ? Summary of nutrient used and nutrients available. ? Field constraints ? Field spreading priorities. ? Surplus nitrogen and phosphorus, if present, and identification of methodologies to utilize/disposal of surplus nutrients. Program development should address the following program guidelines: ? Operate in the Windows 3.x and Windows 95 operating environment. ? Utilize Microsoft Office Suite for programming (MS Word, Access, Excel, Visual Basic) for programming. ? Program should be able to be compiled from application but not require application to operate. ? Program should retain farm information; herd size, field conditions, etc.; in file to allow planner to analyze "what if" scenarios. ? Simple input process is essential. ? Simple, easy to read and use output is required. ? Output should be in standard ASCII format to allow for simple editing by word processor or file editor. ? Graphic output desirable but not required. ? Programmer will comply with standard programming Quality Assurance/Quality Control procedures. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATTACHMENT B AGRICULTURAL ORGANIC MATERIAL ALLOCATION PROGRAM SAMPLE OUTPUT Call or e-mail for copy ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATTACHMENT C AGRICULTURAL ORGANIC MATERIAL ALLOCATION PROGRAM EXPANDED PROJECT PROPOSAL OUTLINE POINT OF CONTACT: (including organization, address, and electronic mail address, if applicable) ABSTRACT: (Brief description of proposed work) DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT: (Expanded description of work proposed including more details on methods, approaches and anticipated results.) DELIVERABLES: (More detailed description of the planned products from the proposed work.) SCHEDULE: (Description of the project timelines and anticipated dates for completion of the major tasks and deliverables.) BUDGET: (Provide of breakdown of how the major budget categories linking budget breakdown to specific deliverables from proposed work.) TECHNICAL REFERENCES: (List all references used for this proposal.) CURRICULUM VITAE/RESUME OF PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS: (Provide the credentials of the principal investigators.) ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Anthony J. Esser Water Qulality Coordinator USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service 441 South Salina Street 5th Floor, Suite 354 Syracuse, New York 13202-2540 Phone: (315) 477-6536 Fax:(315) 477-6550 e-mail: aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov home e-mail:aesser@blue.spectra.net ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Thu Jun 20 17:30 EDT 1996
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 1996 16:16:20 -0500
Message-Id: <199606202116.AA28945@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 528

Contents:
unsubscribe (Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar>)
Crop Rotation Planning Program ("Anthony J. Esser" <aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov>)
Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program ("Jess M. Lowenberg-DeBoer" <lowenberg-deboer@agecon.purdue.edu>)



Date: Wed, 19 Jun 1996 17:34:22 -0500 From: Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar> Subject: unsubscribe Please unsubscrib
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 1996 13:33:11 +0000 From: "Anthony J. Esser" <aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov> Subject: Crop Rotation Planning Program Does nayone know of a computer program to optimize the sequence of crop rotations on a set of farm fields given the rotation for each field and a targeted acreage for legume hay, grass and corn. Thank you, Tony Esser ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Anthony J. Esser Water Qulality Coordinator USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service 441 South Salina Street 5th Floor, Suite 354 Syracuse, New York 13202-2540 Phone: (315) 477-6536 Fax:(315) 477-6550 e-mail: aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov home e-mail:aesser@blue.spectra.net ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Date: Thu, 20 Jun 1996 13:43:56 EST From: "Jess M. Lowenberg-DeBoer" <lowenberg-deboer@agecon.purdue.edu> Subject: Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program Crop rotation planning is a fairly standard linear programming problem. Given some information on yields, field days, labor times, prices, etc., it would not be difficult to create the farm model needed to solve this problem. Any LP solver would work, but it might be easier to use one with a front end which provides a general agricultural framework, for instance "Purdue Crop/Livestock Linear Program". This software is available through the Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, West Lafayette, IN. You might contact Craig Dobbins, Purdue University, Dept. of Ag. Economics, for more details. His email address is DOBBINS@AGECON.PURDUE.EDU. Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer Dept. of Ag. Economics Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47907 Phone: (317) 494-4230 Fax: (317) 494-9176 Email: LOWENBERG-DEBOER@AGECON.PURDUE.EDU
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Fri Jun 21 17:43 EDT 1996
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 1996 16:26:22 -0500
Message-Id: <199606212126.AA06330@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 529

Contents:
RE: Crop Rotation Planning Program ("Scott M. Swinton" <swintons@pilot.msu.edu>)
Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program (pbhogar@vt.edu (Prabhakar Bhogaraju))
 (Instituto Interamericano de Cooperacao para a Agricultura <iica@cr-df.rnp.br>)



Date: Fri, 21 Jun 1996 08:48:44 -0600 (CST) From: "Scott M. Swinton" <swintons@pilot.msu.edu> Subject: RE: Crop Rotation Planning Program The linear programming approach to modeling crop rotation suggested by Lowenberg-DeBoer is certainly a classic one and effectively implemented by the PCLP model. A newer alternative that runs on an artificial intelligence/neural net approach is CROPS (Crop Rotation Planning System) developed by Nick Stone (Entomology, I think) and colleagues at Virginia Tech. When I looked at it in 1994, it was set up to run on Mac and UNIX operating systems, but the designers were planning to port it over to an IBM/DOS platform. --Scott Swinton Ag. Economics, Michigan State In message Thu, 20 Jun 1996 12:41:46 -0500, "Anthony J. Esser" <aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov> writes: > Does nayone know of a computer program to optimize the sequence of > crop rotations on a set of farm fields given the rotation for each > field and a targeted acreage for legume hay, grass and corn. > > Thank you, > Tony Esser > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > Anthony J. Esser > Water Qulality Coordinator > USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service > 441 South Salina Street > 5th Floor, Suite 354 > Syracuse, New York 13202-2540 > Phone: (315) 477-6536 Fax:(315) 477-6550 > e-mail: aje@spock.ny.nrcs.usda.gov > home e-mail:aesser@blue.spectra.net > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > *********************************************************************** Scott Swinton E-mail: swintons@pilot.msu.edu Dept. of Agricultural Economics Phone: 517-353-7218 Michigan State University Fax: 517-432-1800 E. Lansing, MI 48824-1039 ***********************************************************************
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 1996 09:37:26 -0400 From: pbhogar@vt.edu (Prabhakar Bhogaraju) Subject: Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program >Does nayone know of a computer program to My major professor (Dr. Nick Stone) is working on a whole-farm crop rotation planner here at Virginia Tech. It is called CROPS and is based on constraint-satisfaction methods. You can find relevant information in the following publications. 1. Stone et al., The planning problem in agriculture: Farm-level crop rotation planning as an example. AI Applications vol 9, no. 1, 1992 2. Buick, et al., CROPS: A whole-farm crop rotation planning system to implement sustainable agriculture. AI Applications, vol 6. no. 3, 1992. 3. N. D. Stone., Object-oriented constraint satisfaction planning for whole farm management. http://www.ento.vt.edu/Publications/NDS-Paper-.html Hope this helps, -Prabhakar. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prabhakar Bhogaraju, Tel:(540)-231-9116(w); Graduate Student, AGNIS Lab, Fax: (540)-231-9131(w); 202 Price Hall, Virginia Tech, URL: http://www.isis.vt.edu/~pbhogar Blacksburg, VA. 24061-0319. USA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- I don't speak for anybody. I just speak, that's all! --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 96 13:53:51 EST From: Instituto Interamericano de Cooperacao para a Agricultura <iica@cr-df.rnp.br> Subject: unsubscribe agmodels-l IICA ********************************************************************* Instituto Interamericano de Coopera=E7=E3o para a Agricultura Agencia de Coopera=E7=E3o T=E9cnica no Brasil *********************************************************************
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Sun Jun 23 17:29 EDT 1996
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 1996 16:11:54 -0500
Message-Id: <199606232111.AA25848@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 530

Contents:
Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program (cbutts@asrr.arsusda.gov)



Date: Sun, 23 Jun 1996 17:02:58 -0400 From: cbutts@asrr.arsusda.gov Subject: Re: Crop Rotation Planning Program On Thu, 20 Jun 1996, Anthony J. Esser asked "Does anyone know of a computer program to optimize the sequence of crop rotations on a set of farm fields given the rotation for each field and a targeted acreage for legume hay, grass and corn." Dr. Marshall Lamb working for Auburn University at the USDA National Peanut Research Laboratory has developed a prototype multi-crop, multi-year linear optimization model to maximize profits based on historical yields and crop production costs and projections of the effects of rotation on yield and diseases. Most of the information regarding the influence of rotation on yields pertain to peanuts since the intended users are predominantly peanut farmers. Marshall can be contacted at mlamb@ag.auburn.edu or at the address listed below. ******************************************************************** * Chris Butts * cbutts@asrr.arsusda.gov * * USDA, ARS ***************************** * National Peanut Research Laboratory * Phone: 912-995-7431 * * 1011 Forrester Dr., SE ***************************** * Dawson, Georgia 31742 * FAX: 912-995-7416 * ********************************************************************
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Mon Jun 24 17:32 EDT 1996
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 1996 16:19:55 -0500
Message-Id: <199606242119.AA14706@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 531

Contents:
Unsubscribe (dhale <dhale@clark.edu>)
 (setna@starnet.net.ar)
SECOND AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY ("David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au>)
Unsubscribe (Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar>)



Date: Sun, 23 Jun 1996 15:00:58 -0700 (PDT) From: dhale <dhale@clark.edu> Subject: Unsubscribe unsubscribe agmodels-l
Date: Sun, 23 Jun 1996 21:41:06 +0300 From: setna@starnet.net.ar Subject: unsubscribe setna@starnet.net.ar
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 1996 00:58:36 -0700 From: "David White" <dhw@elnino.nric.gov.au> Subject: SECOND AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY OPPORTUNITY TO REGISTER FOR: THE SECOND AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY "THE IMPACT OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE ON AGRICULTURE" The University of Queensland St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. 1-4 October, 1996 The full Conference Registration Brochure can be viewed on the World Wide Web: (http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements) CONTACT: [Ms Sally Brown, Conference Administrator The Second Australian Conference on Agricultural Meteorology C/O: ICTE, THE UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA 4072 Ph:(07)3365 6360 Fax:(07)3365 7099 Email: sally@ceu.uq.oz.au] The Conference is hosted by: The National Committee on Agrometeorology (NCA) Supported by: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology Sponsored by: The National Climate Variability R&D Program of the Land & Water Resources Research and Development Corporation (LWRRDC); QANTAS, the Australian Airline; Campbell Scientific Australia Pty Ltd. CONFERENCE THEME, SUB-THEMES AND PRINCIPAL SPEAKERS The Impact of Weather and Climate on Agriculture is the conference theme. The intention of the conference is to focus on issues in agriculture where weather and climate are major factors. The Conference will provide opportunities for in depth exploration of issues, interactions and interdependencies between agriculture and the services of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as well as other providers. Although the conference has a national focus, the NCA warmly welcomes international participants to the Conference. The Conference Keynote speaker is Professor John Freebairn of the Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne. The After Dinner speaker is Dr Barry White, currently a Brisbane-based consultant with a background in agricultural economics and coordinator of the Managing with Climate Variability Program of Land & Water Resources Research & Development Corporation. Submitted papers are arranged under the sub-themes: Coping with Climate Variability (Lead speaker: Dr Graeme Hammer) Coping with Climate Change (Lead Speaker: Dr A Barrie Pittock) Coping with Weather Hazards (Lead Speaker: Dr Warwick Grace) Data Services, Information and Instrumentation (Lead Speaker: Mr Bill Kininmonth). WHO SHOULD ATTEND The conference is open to all who might benefit from the cooperative and learning environment of a conference broadly spanning agricultural and meteorological fields of endeavour (practical, research and service provision). Students and farmers are especially welcome. CONFERENCE PAPERS AND CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS Oral papers will be allowed 15 minutes. The Conference Organising Committee has already selected these papers. Parallel sessions are planned and there will be plenary sessions each afternoon. Some time has been set aside for a limited number of poster paper presenters to make brief presentations. Poster papers will be accepted till 31 July, by which time a one page abstract is required for the Conference Proceedings (Contact Conference Administrator for information on the format of the abstract). Keynote and lead speakers' papers (up to eight pages in length), oral presentation abstracts (up to four pages in length) and and one page abstracts for poster papers, will be printed in the Conference Proceedings. The Conference Proceedings will be available to conference delegates at the beginning of the Conference. Proceedings may also be ordered from the Conference Administrator by interested people. TRADE DISPLAY The trade display will be positioned close to conference activities from Tuesday evening to Thursday. Businesses and other service providers interested in taking part are encouraged to contact the Conference Administrator for further information. OTHER CONFERENCE ACTIVITIES It is planned that conference delegates register and settle in on Tuesday evening, 1 October, 1996, between 5 and 7.00 pm, following which there will be a welcome barbecue (optional)in the University precincts. Groups who would like to hold an afternoon workshop between 12 noon and 1700 on Tuesday, 1 October are advised to contact the Conference Administrator about this and to make individual arrangements with your group participants. There will be the opportunity to spend additional time at the Trade Display, viewing software demonstrations, videos and poster papers on Wednesday evening, 2 October, with an informal (optional) smorgasbord to follow. The Conference Dinner will be held on Thursday night. REGISTRATION BROCHURE Contact the Conference Administrator for a Registration Brochure or copy the Registration Form from the World Wide Web and return to the Conference Administrator with your Registration Payment. Note that Early Bird Rates Apply until July 12th, 1996. ___________________________________________________________________________ Gloria Bedson ,-_!\ Severe, Public & Agricultural Whr Services Phone: +61 3 9669 4401/ \ Program Office, Bureau of Meteorology \_,-._/ GPO Box 1289K Fax: +61 3 9669 4695 v Melbourne, VIC 3001. Australia E-Mail:G.Bedson@BoM.GOV.AU ___________________________________________________________________________
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 1996 11:23:27 -0500 From: Hugo Hector Ortega <hhortega@unl.edu.ar> Subject: Unsubscribe unsubscribe agmodels-l
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Tue Jun 25 20:49 EDT 1996
Date: Tue, 25 Jun 1996 19:36:43 -0500
Message-Id: <199606260036.AA29541@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 532

Contents:
strawberry model (Han-e Zhou <han@ksu.ksu.edu>)
Strawberry model (Han-e Zhou <han@ksu.ksu.edu>)
unsubscribe agmodels-l (Eovaldo Hernandez <ehernandez@ull.es>)



Date: Mon, 24 Jun 1996 22:09:41 -0500 (CDT) From: Han-e Zhou <han@ksu.ksu.edu> Subject: strawberry model Does anyone have information about strawberry model or strawberry model of freezing tolerance? Any help would be appreciated. Han-E Zhou Hoticulture Department Kansas State University e-mail: han@ksu.kus.edu
Date: Mon, 24 Jun 1996 22:28:06 -0500 (CDT) From: Han-e Zhou <han@ksu.ksu.edu> Subject: Strawberry model Help! Does anyone have information about strawberry model or strawberry of freezing tolerance? Any help would be appreciated. Han-E Zhou Horticulture Department Kansas State University e-mail: han@ksu.ksu.edu
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 1996 0:12:09 UTC From: Eovaldo Hernandez <ehernandez@ull.es> Subject: unsubscribe agmodels-l
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Thu Jun 27 14:23 EDT 1996
Date: Thu, 27 Jun 1996 13:09:27 -0500
Message-Id: <199606271809.AA11143@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 533

Contents:
Agronomy Meeting Show (fwd) (Tom Hodges <thodges@tricity.wsu.edu>)



Date: Thu, 27 Jun 1996 09:28:53 -0700 (PDT) From: Tom Hodges <thodges@tricity.wsu.edu> Subject: Agronomy Meeting Show (fwd) This may be of interest to companies providing products or services to agriculture. My apologies to those who get several copies. Tom thodges@tricity.wsu.edu ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Thu, 27 Jun 1996 11:14:08 -0500 From: Pat Scullion <pscullion@agronomy.org> To: thodges@tricity.wsu.edu Subject: Agronomy Meeting Show The 1996 Annual Meetings of the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America and the Soil Science Society of America will be held November 3-8, 1996 in Indianapolis, IN. The meetings are a presentation and exchange of research by 5,000 international attendees from industry, government and education. Commercial exhibitors who directly supply or service the agronomic sciences are invited to participate in the Exhibit Show November 3-6. For more information contact: Patricia Scullion. Phone: (608) 273-8080 FAX: (608) 273-2021 or E-mail: pscullion@agronomy.org Thank you for your assistance. Pat
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Fri Jun 28 17:43 EDT 1996
Date: Fri, 28 Jun 1996 16:30:04 -0500
Message-Id: <199606282130.AA02592@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 534

Contents:
Rotational cropping in the US - data availability (Paul Hendley <phendley@interserv.com>)



Date: Fri, 28 Jun 1996 06:21:49 -0700 From: Paul Hendley <phendley@interserv.com> Subject: Rotational cropping in the US - data availability Since the subject of rotational crops has recently been "on the table" I was wondering what data is available on rotational cropping patterns both nationally and/or at more detail within states/ cropping units. Short of using the NRI database, there seems to be little information generally available but I am sure that USDA and others must have much more. The data is of great potential value to pesticide risk assessments, erosion planning, nutrient analysis etc. etc. Anyone have any thoughts or ideas on who may have access to such data?? I will summarize Paul Paul Hendley Zeneca Ag Products phendley@interserv.com Any comments above reflect my personal views and may not be the official policy of Zeneca Ag Products Paul Hendley Zeneca Ag Products phendley@interserv.com Any comments above reflect my personal views and may not be the official policy of Zeneca Ag Products
End of Digest
>From root@crcnis1.unl.edu Sat Jun 29 17:42 EDT 1996
Date: Sat, 29 Jun 1996 16:30:14 -0500
Message-Id: <199606292130.AA15071@crcnis1.unl.edu>
Subject: AGMODELS-L digest 535

Contents:
Re: Rotational cropping in the US - data availability (muttiah@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ranjan Muttiah))
unsubscribe (warf@compusmart.ab.ca (Western Aquatic Research Facility))
Re: unsubscribe (Larry Pendarvis <un@digital.net>)



Date: Fri, 28 Jun 1996 16:39:40 -0500 From: muttiah@brcsun0.tamu.edu (Ranjan Muttiah) Subject: Re: Rotational cropping in the US - data availability Just an idea: you might think about spatial trade off w/ temporal trade offs. So instead of (location X, year 1, crop1) (location X, year 2, crop 2) etc. (location X, year n, crop n) Interchange with (location i, year1 to year n, crop 1) (location i+1, year 1 to year n, crop 2) etc. (location n, year 1 to year n, crop n) and aggregate up results to X. You can use the agcensus in this case. However, I'm not sure how valid this assumption would be. muttiah@brcsun0.tamu.edu
Date: Sat, 29 Jun 1996 00:16:31 GMT From: warf@compusmart.ab.ca (Western Aquatic Research Facility) Subject: unsubscribe unsubscribe
Date: Sat, 29 Jun 1996 01:22:08 -0400 From: Larry Pendarvis <un@digital.net> Subject: Re: unsubscribe unsubscribe
End of Digest
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