Subject: California Disaster

From: [email-masked] (Andy Nachbaur)
Date: Mon, 13 Feb 1995 16:05:00 GMT

Your read it here first:

         CALIFORNIA ALMOND CROP A DISASTER!

     Last month after much above normal January rainfall those in
the know about such things in the almond industry were predicting this
years almond crop would suffer a 25% decline from last years production
because of the rain prior to the first bloom.

The reality of this may be that almond growers may be lucky to get 25%
of last years production. Almond prices have gone up on last years crop
and I would expect to see more price increases sometime in the near
future. Last years crop may gross that billion dollar figure yet.

     The Why's: Weather, both moisture and temperatures. January
was a wet month, but more critical was the winter temperatures
were running about 10 degrees above normal after the almonds were
fully dormant. This brought the new buds and bloom out weeks early
coupled with the wet ground conditions which have been ideal for
fog and overcast days have kept the bees in most of the time. At
this location bees have had one clear day and several afternoons
to fly, maybe 30 hours total to date.(02-12-95)

     Beekeepers did their thing and were able to deliver all the
bees required or requested by the almond growers under some miserable
muddy conditions. The overall condition of the bees is not yet known as
the moving of them and the weather has kept most beekeepers from making
much more then spot appraisals. Feeding bees sugar syrup has been
general and hives are light because they have not been able to get out.
All hives do have several frames of brood depending on factors other
they what they have met in the orchards.

     This may be the return to the old type of years, the wet one's of
the golden days, when most beekeepers in the area looked on the almond
bloom as no more then a chance to inspect their bees for AFB and
depended on other pasture outside of the area for spring buildup.

     To compound all this misery is the weather outlook is calling
for a period of cold arctic weather next week, making the danger of
frost a reality which could inflect further damage to the almonds and
set the bees back. The almond grower is really in a spot, he needs
warmer weather to get the bees out for a hoped for late set...not a
very good gamble at best as the late set is more often then not dropped
by the trees later in the season.

     Well you read it here first, if things go the normal way you
will read about it in the farm papers and the fault will the bee's
who did not properly pollinate the crop. Modelling farm advisors
will be pushing their greater strength standards for bees based
NOT on research or realty, just their own personal opinions and
prejudices. Beekeepers will have trouble collecting their pollination
rentals in full, and growers will spend much money having bees inspected
for strength, after the fact, to avoid paying money due or get
discounts. The more business like beekeepers have collected their
money and busy spending it on fuel bills, sugar and the like.

     As I write this the sun is trying to come out, maybe today the
weather will change and tomorrow things will brighten up for the
beekeepers and almond grower, there is always hope. We will soon be
moving out of the almonds to better pastures and the overall prospects
have not changed. It appears that California beekeepers who have the
bee's, locations, equipment, and skills could produce the best crop of
the century, we need it...the potential is there for the pasture with
normal rains the rest of the rain season!

                                ttul Andy-

"if you want to get the Honey, don't kick the beehive"  Abe Lincoln
"he who controls the weather, controls the almond crop" OLd Drone

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