Subject: Re: What summer after cold winter?

From: ROSE D MR <rose>
Date: 12 Mar 1996 09:03:44 GMT

Peter Møller Christensen <[email-masked]> wrote:
>What are the general rules for longterm weather forecast for the
>upcoming summer following such a long and cold winter as we've just had
>- at least in Northern Europe? We've had snow and freezing temperatures
>already in the first part of November - and do still have.
>Will the summer be colder/warmer?
>What about plant and animal life (fewer mosqitos, fewer migrating
>birds)?
>Any web sites explaining these kinds of questions?
>
>Peter Møller Christensen,
>Copenhagen,
>Denmark
Most of the general rules I have seen prove to be very unreliable in predicting
summer weather from winter weather and vica versa. Here in the UK it is
interesting to note that years with summer droughts have come in pairs since
1975/1976 ( 83/84, 89/90). We had a drought last summer so it will be
interesting to see if the 'pairing' continues. The severity of the summer
droughts in 75/76 and 89/90 was exacerbated by abnormally dry intervening
winters. The winter of 95/96 has been anything but dry here in the UK in
general though some parts of the country still have very low water levels in
their reservoirs. Soil moisture deficits in these areas could become critical
again if there is a summer drought and there could be effects on tree growth.

David R Rose
Disease Diagnostic & Advisory Service
Pathology Branch
Forestry Commission Research Division
UK