From craig@unx.sas.com Fri Jul 30 08:10:26 1993 Date: Thu, 29 Jul 1993 14:44:45 -0400 From: Craig A. Simpson To: craig@sunsite.unc.edu Subject: unc preview For ease of reading, here are the main sections: o Introduction o Last Season - Wrong/Right Last Season - Coaching - Returning Players - Last Season's Stats - New Players o This Season - Offense - Defense - Strategies - Intangibles - Schedule o Post-Season Potential o General Commentary -------------------------------------------------- Carolina 92-93: An (Over)Extensive Look ---------------------------------------------- Copyright 1992 Curtis Hill In 1990, Dean Smith signed what was considered by many to be the greatest recruiting class in history. It might have been, until Steve Fisher signed 2 NBA players and 3 college guys to play for Michigan the next year. Clearly, the skill level of the five Carolina players wasn't as high as Michigan's (most notably Webber and Rose), plus Michigan's Fab 5 had the opportunity to play an entire season. Carolina's Fab 5 had to wait in the wings their first year and support a core unit that made its way to the Final 4. At the end of the 90-91 season, Clifford Rozier transferred to Louisville so he could pursue his collegiate career at a university that wouldn't make him play defense, leaving the Carolina frontcourt either quick and short or slow and tall. Clifford's transfer surely affected the performance of the 91-92 team and its style of play. The biggest effect was that Pat Sullivan was forced into too many minutes a year too soon. With Clifford on the team, Lynch would have gotten most of Pat's minutes at the wing, sharing with Reese. However, overall, the biggest problems with the 91-92 team were an overreliance on Hubert Davis, an overreliance on youth, and the inability to hit medium to long range jumpers. What Was Wrong Last Year? ------------------------- Many of the strengths of the 91-92 Carolina team turned out to be some of its most devastating weaknesses as well. The largest and most dangerous of these two-edged swords was the offensive firepower of Hubert Davis. Hubert had one of the most outstanding offensive years of any Carolina player ever, shooting 42.9% from the three point area, being the first player in 6 years to average over 20 pts per game; the first guard since Jordan in 1982-83. His 21.4 ppg average was the highest ppg for a season since Charlie Scott averaged over 22 ppg for each of his three years from 68-70 (including 27.1 as a senior). (Phil Ford probably would have averaged over 22 ppg if the three point shot had existed in the 1970's.) Hubert did this while being very consistent, only having really one bad game (@ UVa) up until the ACC Tournament and the NCAA's, when an injured ankle affected his shooting. However, these excellent shooting performances, which bailed Carolina out of a couple of tough games early, led to the team becoming too dependent on Hubert. No other player really developed a consistent outside shot outside of 10 feet, although occasionally Reese, Phelps, or Sullivan would knock down a few threes. At crucial times, the team looked for Hubert to score. Of course, so did the opposition. This usually led to a scrambled offensive effort with Hubert getting off an off-balance shot, someone else shooting a bad shot, or a turnover. There was no real answer to the overreliance on youth. The good players on this team were young. Five sophomores, one freshman, two juniors and one senior got the lion's share of the minutes last season. Plus, the sophomores really hadn't had a year's worth of game experience, as they played behind a solid starting five their first year. There were many problems with playing this young lineup, including offensive inconsistency, inconsistent fast breaks, poor decision making, and spurts of poor defense. However, on the plus side, this young team did not quit, played hard, and learned from their mistakes. An inability to hit medium to long range jumpers was another big problem for this team. All season, no one really had to worry about hitting the outside shot, because Hubert was there. This really wasn't too important as far as three point shooting went; Carolina could have done better with no consistent three point threat other than Davis. However, the key here is that no one really developed that consistent 12-15 footer that was always there with the defenses Carolina faced. Lynch, who had been pretty good >from about the foul line the year before, lost his shot. Reese and Rodl never really pulled up too much from that area and Phelps didn't shoot a good percentage from there all year. If you'll remember the 1990-91 team, Fox would shoot from the outside while Hubert would often hit that foul line jumper. The only other players on last year's squad who could hit this shot were Cherry (no place to play) and Williams, who just wasn't ready to play the point for long stretches, especially defensively. Not much of a plus side to this problem except that it is so bad last season, it can only get better this year. What Was Right Last Year? ------------------------- Now that we've discussed the biggest troubles faced by the 91-92 team, let's go on to the good points. At times, this team played suffocating defense, and excepting a few notable occasions, the team played good defense all season. Having to play a young team last year means that these players will be well-seasoned for the upcoming campaign. Several players showed marked improvement as the season went on, most notably Reese and Montross. Kevin Salvadori tailed off late, but has made great strides in the last year. It is also easy to see in which areas (shooting, running the break, etc.) this team needs to improve in order to become better. How Was the Coaching? --------------------- Overall, I thought Coach Smith did a good job with this team. I thought they would get to the Sweet 16 and, with a bit of luck, to the Final 8. They ended up finishing in the Sweet 16, losing a hard-fought game to Ohio State. Smith let the young players play, even when they did make mistakes. He worked at trying to give players confidence and letting them show their skills in games. Probably Smith's finest moment in this department was letting Reese take the last shot versus Wake Forest at Chapel Hill, which led to Brian hitting the game winning shot. There were a couple of things that Coach Smith did that I did not agree with, and one thing I wish he would have done. First, he stayed with the trapping defense too long. He finally gave up on it toward the end of the season, but this team did not have the quickness or experience to execute the trap effectively. It's hard to trap in college basketball nowadays, since many of the guards see it regularly in high school ball. Secondly, I wish he would have let Donald play just a few more minutes per game for Derrick. I know Donald didn't play defense as well, but if the defense slips and leaves Donald open, you've had a real good chance at a three. Finally, I do wish Dean would introduce a sixth offense to the Carolina package. Either a big man screening up high (like State used 2 years ago) or an aggressive screening game outside (like Miami of Ohio used in the tournament) for a three-point shot oriented offense. I think adding one of these offenses, and going with three guards, would have opened things up quite a bit. Who's Back? ----------- Scott Cherry 6'4" 175 lb Senior Scott tried too hard during the beginning of last season with Williams on the team and ended up not playing well all season. He lost his confidence for most of the year and never really played much after the early part of the schedule. Scott just doesn't have the quickness or skills to even backup Phelps. He also tended to get flustered on the court and make mistakes. However, Scott is a good shooter and understands the game well. Scott also plays defense well, too. Scott will get some time early this year, and will probably end up seeing a bit more playing time overall than you might expect during the year. Area to improve: ballhandling, court presence George Lynch 6'7" 220 lb Senior George has improved during his previous three years at Carolina, he just hasn't improved in the areas he really needs to. George is in great condition, strong, and lightning quick. He's a better rebounder, stronger, and has more stamina now than he was when he came to UNC, and he doesn't make as many dumb fouls (although it's still more than he should). However, George must develop a consistent 15 foot jumper. Improving his ballhandling skills would be a plus, too. George will never find the kind of success in college and the NBA he is capable of without developing these skills. If George wants to get much more than spot time at the wing this year, he must handle the ball better and shoot better. I'd also like to see George make better decisions on the break, especially getting the ball to a guard early. Summer rumor: George has been working hard on his ballhandling and shooting. Areas to improve: needs consistent jumper, better ballhandling, fast break judgements Henrik Rodl 6'6" 200 lb Senior Played really well near the end of the season. Henrik did a really good job, usually, backing up Phelps at the point. Henrik needs to be a bit more aggressive shooting the open three, although he needs to be wide open because he uses a slow set shot. Henrik's a bit slow to play point all the time; a bit slow to play shooting guard full-time; a bit slow to play the wing full-time. He can sub effectively at each position, though. Additionally, Henrik can pass well, usually doesn't make mistakes, and can play stifling defense on all but the quickest (Cassell-like) opponents. I sincerely hope Dean plans to use Rodl as a 6th man this year. Not starting, but coming in early in the game, especially if Phelps, Reese, or Williams has a bad start. It will be interesting to see how Henrik plays during the Olympics and how the Olympic qualifying and competition help his confidence and game. [Henrik played very well for the German Olympic team. In the games I watched, the Germans played better defense and ran a smoother offense with Henrik in the game. Henrik was one of the few Germans who had a clue about how to play defense. His ballhandling seems to have improved over the summer. Henrik still isn't looking for his shot, though. However, it's hard to make that judgement just by watching his play with the German squad.] Areas to improve: taking the open shot, ballhandling (left hand) Matt Wenstrom 7' 255 lb Senior Matt showed remarkable improvement during his short stints last season. He's much less stiff and has a better shot. Still tends to foul whenever the ball gets near him on defense, but he's not as bad as he used to be (He used to get a foul every time the opponent brought the ball across the mid-court line). Has shown signs of being an excellent passer. Matt needs to improve his defense down low and get more consistent on the offensive end. Could play more than people think as a backup to Montross. Matt could end up having a Mark Eaton-esque (not All-Star, but from an unknown benchrider to decent player) career in the NBA if he continues to improve. I think he's nearly as good as most of the stiff NBA centers playing today [see Kleine, Joe, Kite, Greg, and Koncak, Joe]. OK, maybe that's a stretch. Europe or Australia do seem more likely post-graduation destinations for Matt. I do think he's a bit better than most give him credit for, solely because he just doesn't get to play. Some folks don't like his attitude (surly and rough in games), which I can understand. Could stand a better haircut. Summer activity: Playing lots of pickup games. Areas to improve: post moves, foot work, avoiding dumb fouls Eric Montross 7' 275 lb Junior Eric really blossomed in the NCAA tournament last year. He carried UNC versus Miami of Ohio and became the team leader during the Ohio State game. He's an incredible competitor and has a strong body. He's finally starting to grasp and use the skills being taught to him by Dean and the coaching staff. Eric's keeping the ball up when he gets it in the blocks and learning not to make as many stupid fouls on defense. Another move or two down low and a consistent 15 foot shot should move Eric to All-American status. I don't know if that will all happen this year, though. He needs to get that jump-hook going consistently and the confidence to carry the team anytime it needs it. Summer rumor: Eric's put on 10 pounds and is now playing at 275. Yikes. Worked against the Dream Team(tm) before the Olympics. Areas to improve: more inside moves, avoid dumb fouls (especially sticking out his leg instead of moving his body), hit open jumpers (er, shots. He shouldn't jump while shooting.) Derrick Phelps 6'4" 180 lb Junior Derrick was probably the most frustrating player to watch all season. He'd do a lot of things very well, then do a few dumb things. Derrick is basically missing two things from his game. The first is a consistent jump shot. Derrick really needs to start sticking the open jumper >from 12 feet out to the 3 point line. The second thing is consistency in running the fast break. Early in the year, Derrick ran the break to perfection; late in the year he did not. I don't think the entire blame should fall on Derrick, because the team as a whole didn't finish or execute breaks very well. However, things would have been better if he had been more consistent. Derrick plays exceptional defense and has excellent ballhandling and passing skills. When he's in the flow, he makes world-class passes that shows excellent court-vision and court-sense. A solid jumper would make Derrick a very dangerous point man. Summer rumor: Derrick's been working on his defense but not on his shot. This is somewhat distressing, but his defense should be outstanding. [And one doesn't work on shooting skills during pickup games, especially ones with Reid, Perkins, Daugherty, etc. You give them the rock. So who knows what the real story is on his shooting.] Areas to improve: shooting, decisions on break Brian Reese 6'6" 215 lb. Junior The most physically gifted player on the team, Brian is ever so close to breaking loose and playing consistent, outstanding basketball. There are flashes of brilliance: Brian driving through a host of defenders and soaring for a dunk; Brian making an exceptional pass to a teammate; Brian hammering down an alley-oop pass. As great as his potential is, Brian still needs alot of polishing. He has a good, but not consistent, jump shot; his ballhandling could be much better; he sometimes doesn't make the best decisions on the court; he sometimes gets lost on defense; he sometimes tries shots that are too difficult; he needs to continue improving his stamina. However, these are six areas that Brian can improve on by hard work. Brian is staying in Chapel Hill this summer to work on his game instead of going back to NYC like he did last summer. Brian admitted this hurt his game, as he played street ball instead of working on the basics. I think he'll show significant improvement in a variety of areas this year. Brian has an exercise-induced asthma condition which he's working hard to overcome. Summer rumor: working hard on stamina and playing pickup Areas to improve: stamina, ballhandling, shooting, making good decisions Kevin Salvadori 7'1" 230 lb. Junior Kevin has improved the most, from his first year at UNC to the present, of any player since Chilcutt. Actually, his improvement has been more dramatic than Pete's. You may have to go back to Warren Martin to find this kind of improvement. It's rather hard to believe how skinny, unskilled, and awkward Kevin was during his redshirt year. Kevin shoots well for a big man and is an excellent shot blocker. He needs to become more aggressive rebounding and get stronger to handle the pounding inside. Kevin also needs to get some more inside moves, as folks have caught on to his lone move, the baseline fallaway. Kevin could become very, very good by the time he leaves UNC. Excellent NBA potential, especially if he weighs between 240-260 lbs by that time. Summer rumor: Kevin is now up to 230 lbs., which is about 10 lbs heavier than last season. That's a good, solid base. Also working on his stamina to help combat his asthma (the same condition as Reese). Areas to improve: strength, aggressiveness, stamina Pat Sullivan 6'8" 220 lb Junior Pat suffered last season from being inexperienced, unconfident, and playing out of position. Pat's just not quite quick enough to play the wing 20 minutes a game like he was asked to early in the year and his defensive fundamentals weren't quite good enough to cover-up the lack of quickness. Pat shows some nice things on the floor at times. He's a good passer, very good at tapping in rebounds, and hustles all the time. He also has a good shot, when he chooses to shoot it. However, he combines these good things with some bad qualities. He often does the wrong thing on the court, or looks like he's confused and then does something bad. For having good hands to tap the ball in, sometimes he looks like he has butterfingers (ala Chilcutt before his senior year). I think Pat will play with more confidence this year, as he really wasn't quite ready for the minutes he got last season. I believe his skills will improve over the summer and he'll be given the opportunity to contribute to the team. I think he can contribute more at the power forward spot rather than on the wing. I hope Dean thinks so, too. Summer rumor: Pat's playing pick-up twice a day and has improved his shot to 3 point range. Areas to improve: confidence, defensive footwork, ballhandling Donald Williams 6'3" 185 lb Sophomore Donald did not get much of a chance to play last year, and what minutes he got were at point guard. Donald was a shooting guard (scoring machine) in high school and was not very comfortable playing the point for Carolina. I personally thought he did a fine job, given his experience coming in. He ran the team better, most of the time, than Kenny Harris did the season before. If anything, Donald was too tentative in shooting the ball, looking to pass when he had an open shot. This season, Donald will essentially be given the starting shooting guard spot and he will start (or play most of the minutes, if Rodl starts) unless he really plays poorly in practice or is injured. Donald is a scorer, but also athletic and a good defender. He has the ability to hit jumpers from well outside three-point distance, he can drive by you and stick the jumper, and he can take it to the hole. Donald handles the ball well and is very quick, with an excellent attitude to boot. I look for Donald to have a surprising, for what most people expect, season. He may not be Hubert Davis yet, but he'll be something to watch. Summer rumor: playing well in pickup games and in the Raleigh summer league. Shooting the ball well. Areas to improve: ballhandling, defensive skills Last Season's Stats ------------------- (Note: I would have rather had this broken down with per minute averages, but the UNC SID office didn't have this information.) Field Goals Free Throws Games M-A Pct M-A Pct Reb Avg A TO S PF-D Pts Avg Burgess 13 0-4 0.0 1-4 25.0 7 0.5 3 2 4 5-0 1 0.1 Cherry 15 3-19 15.8 4-9 44.4 15 1.0 8 8 1 10-0 11 0.7 Davis 33 241-474 50.8 140-169 82.8 76 2.3 52 45 42 42-0 707 21.4 Lynch 33 192-356 53.9 74-114 64.9 291 8.8 86 77 66 105-6 459 13.9 Montross 31 140-244 57.4 68-109 62.4 218 7.0 18 47 17 112-4 348 11.2 Phelps 33 106-265 40.0 74-104 71.2 115 3.5 207 111 78 75-2 303 9.2 Reese 32 120-245 49.0 59-76 77.6 125 3.9 70 81 15 45-1 315 9.8 Rodl 33 39-73 53.4 15-27 55.6 49 1.5 84 38 27 45-1 101 3.1 Salvadori 33 73-134 54.5 49-66 74.2 121 3.7 11 32 6 72-1 195 5.9 Smith 11 4-9 44.4 2-2 100.0 10 0.9 2 8 0 3-0 10 0.9 Stephenson 8 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 1 0.1 0 3 1 0-0 6 0.8 Sullivan 32 63-133 47.4 38-47 80.9 91 2.8 45 54 19 51-0 171 5.3 Wenstrom 30 29-52 55.8 6-12 50.0 40 1.3 12 10 3 21-0 64 2.1 Williams 29 26-69 37.7 4-7 57.1 19 0.7 18 17 4 12-0 65 2.2 Team UNC 33 1039-2080 50.0 534-746 71.6 1264 38.3 616 538 283 598-15 2756 83.5 Opp 33 909-2093 43.4 444-630 70.5 1119 33.9 526 566 252 614-19 2494 75.6 Three Point Shooting - Davis 85-198(42.9),Phelps 17-60(28.3),Reese 16-51(31.4), Williams 9-31(29.0),Rodl 8-23(34.8),Sullivan 7-30(23.3),Cherry 1-6(16.7), Lynch 1-8(12.5). Blocked Shots - Salvadori 63; Montross 30; Phelps, Lynch 10; Davis 7; Rodl 6; Sullivan 5; Wenstrom, Reese 4; Williams, Cherry, Stevenson 1. Charged Drawn - Phelps 39; Lynch 15; Sullivan, Reese 12; Rodl 9; Davis, Montross 8; Salvadori 6; Williams 2; Wenstrom, Burgess 1. Quick note -- using projected minutes, Carolina is close to having 5 double figure scorers (Williams projects to around 14 ppg). It will be interesting to see how many Carolina players can average in double figures scoring next year. "The more the merrier" is very true in this case. Who's New? ---------- And now a quick word from what I've heard and seen about the new players coming in this season. One important thing to note is that, barring injury, none of these players really have to contribute this season. It would be nice if Calabria or Davis could spell Phelps at the point for a few minutes each game, but this isn't absolutely necessary. Dante Calabria 6-5 192 G Beaver Falls, PA 27.6 ppg 8.0 rpg 3.4 spg 4.3 apg Gibbons Rank: 42(out of top 100 last year) A three point specialist who, allegedly, can play defense and handle the ball. Not supposed to be really quick. Could be a Bob Sura-like player; his size and skills are very similar. Probably won't contribute too much this season, unless he spends some time playing backup point. Additional comment: In the Dapper Dan, Dante was very team-oriented and made some really nice passes. Sort of the Jon Barry-type, but without an idiotic agent yet.[KD] Ed Geth 6-9 240 PF Norfolk, VA 14.2 ppg 17.3 rpg 2.3 spg 6.0 bpg Gibbons Rank: 88 Raw talent who hasn't been playing for very long (four years, I think). Put up phenomenal rebounding stats playing in the Norfolk area last season, yet was only voted 2nd team All-City. I think this was a direct result of his decision to go to Carolina more than how he played. Lately, I've heard he's not very quick, but if you average over 17 rebounds a game in the Norfolk area, you've got to have some athletic skill. Will be brought along slowly, as his offensive skills allegedly are very weak. Probably won't contribute much except garbage time this season. Probably more raw than Chilcutt, but more athletically skilled than Salvadori, coming in. Some concern whether he is an ACC caliber player. A chance he'll be redshirted. Larry Davis 6-3 175 PG Fork Union, VA (via South Carolina) 15.0 ppg 7.2 rpg 5.0 apg Gibbons Rank: In Prep School Larry Davis. Some hail him as the next Phil Ford; I think people are looking for too much from this sleeper from South Carolina (via Fork Union Academy). Larry averaged 44 pts per game in the smallest South Carolina high school classification as a senior. However, he only shot 37% from the three point line, and I understand many of his baskets resulted from driving to the basket. He supposedly has improved his three point shooting at Fork Union, but since they don't keep that stat there, it's hard to say. He was also just learning to play the point at Fork Union, so I don't know how well he does that, either. Will contend with Calabria for the few minutes per game Phelps doesn't play point. Playing a year at Fork Union plus the discipline he learned there (it's a military prep school) might give him an edge over Calabria early. Summer rumor: (Fall really) - Larry claims he's going to contribute this year. I wonder if Dean knows this :) Serge Zwikker 7-3 230 C Potomac, MD (via The Netherlands) 21.5 ppg 12.0 rpg 5.5 bpg Gibbons Rank: 34 The Power Serge. A 7'+ monster from the Netherlands who looks like Lurch >from the Addams Family when he has a bad haircut. Shoots the ball exceptionally well for a big man (80%+ from the free throw line) and passes well. Doesn't have a lot of inside moves, though. Serge is a bit slow and a bit uncoordinated. Learning to run correctly and how to use his feet on offense and defense should help him a lot. Needs to get stronger in his upper body and increase his stamina. Will likely be redshirted, which will be perfect for Serge, as he'll be able to work on getting stronger, increasing his stamina, and generally improving his game versus the three other Carolina big men without worrying about game pressure. What About This Season? ----------------------- What does the 92-93 season hold for the Tar Heels? Firstly, the squad should improve, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The players will be older, one hopes wiser, and should have improved skills. Secondly, they should also be more comfortable with each other. Thirdly, a strong schedule should both challenge the team and give them a good idea of where they stand at any given time with the rest of the country. Finally, the absence of Hubert Davis could be a surprising blessing in disguise. The Defense ----------- The Carolina team should be stronger both offensively and defensively next season. This applies to individual players and to the team as a whole. The defense was the strongest aspect of of Carolina's game last season, and one would not expect this season's team to backslide. Everyone but Hubert returns, and the combination of Williams and Rodl means there won't be a dropoff at that position. The rest of the team should understand better where the defensive lapses were last year and be able to work to correct the flaws. Plus, each player's one-on-one skills should improve over the summer, which will enhance the team defense. The Offense ----------- The offensive side of the game is still a question mark. There is the glaring absence of Hubert Davis and the team's inability to hit medium and long range jumpers. This allowed teams last season to cover Hubert and pack the rest of their defense back and force Carolina to shoot or attempt risky inside lobs. I believe that Donald Williams will be able to step in and provide many of the skills that Hubert gave to the team, including a good outside shot and the ability to drive and shoot. However, it would be unwise to expect him to perform at Hubert's exceptional senior season level. This fact could be the key to Carolina's success this season, as Donald will not be considered the "go-to" guy that Hubert was, meaning that other players will be expected to score, will look to score, and, in the best case, actually score. Without Hubert to go to so often and so consistently, the other players should begin to look for their shots more, and the ones that succeed will raise their confidence level and continue to improve. Surprisingly, the worst-case scenario might be that Donald comes in and does do as well as Hubert, meaning the team will still look for one player to score too much of the time. I do expect Montross and Reese to become better scorers this season, leading to a more consistent and effective Carolina offense. However, if this team shoots from the outside of 10 feet like everyone but Hubert did last season, it could be a long, long year for UNC. Playing As A Team ----------------- Last season was the first time this team really got to play together for long stretches. During the summer after their freshman year, Phelps didn't play much due to the rehabilitation of his knee, Reese went back to NYC, and the team didn't have the same drive to work hard every day as a team as they did the season before. Rice and Fox really pushed everyone to work hard the previous summer in scrimmages and conditioning, allowing the team to get more comfortable with each other and ready for the upcoming season. The freshmen missed this experience, and no one stepped up and drove them during their first summer. Certainly each worked on their games, but they didn't get together as a team. With everyone healthy and staying in Chapel Hill this summer, a strong desire to get better as a team, and adding the experience of the previous season, this team should function more smoothly as a team, especially on the offensive end, where they really need it. We've discussed the offensive and defensive possibilities for UNC next season, but let's be explicit about the specific strengths and weaknesses of this year's squad. What Are The Team Strengths? ---------------------------- The obvious strengths of this Carolina team are height, defense, experience, and depth. This is a tall team, with 3 seven-footers, although it's sometimes considered small with Lynch at the power forward slot. The defense is very good, especially if they can keep teams from getting the ball inside too easily or giving up too many open three-pointers. This is becoming a very experienced team. This season, two seniors, five juniors, and one sophomore should get the bulk of the time. One hopes this maturity will pay off during the season. Finally, this is a deep team. The players on the bench aren't as good as the starting eight, but the team won't be devastated if one of them has to play for a stretch. What Are The Team Weaknesses? ----------------------------- The weaknesses of this team are very apparent: poor perimeter shooting, poor execution of the fast break, a lack of a fluid big man, and depth at the point guard position. Last year's team was abysmal from 10 feet and out, and things must improve for Carolina to have a great season. The team ran the break terribly last season, resulting in a few games being lost or closer than necessary because of the points not scored on break opportunities. The Ohio State game is an excellent example of this, as Carolina could have been up by well over 10 points at the half, instead of the five point cushion they ended up with. Eric Montross is a fine center, but he's not going to be confused with Shaquille O'Neal in a footrace anytime soon. UNC's big men have to get better at defensive positioning and the rest of the team at denying the interior pass to keep from getting chewed up inside by teams. The NC State game at Chapel Hill was a prime example of what can happen when these goals are not achieved. Finally, the lack of depth at the point is not as devastating as some of our local sportswriters like to make it out to be. The real problem is that playing Derrick 38 minutes a night just isn't going to cut it. He'll wear down in individual games; he'll wear down over the season. Rodl can play the point for stretches, but he's unable to defend quick point guards and has trouble with pressing defenses due to his lesser ballhandling skills. It would be nice if Larry Davis or Dante Calabria (or Donald) prove to be able to handle the point for 4-5 minutes a game, getting Derrick some rest that will keep him fresh for the entire year. A Quick Word on "Quickness" --------------------------- While the 92-93 edition of the Carolina basketball team will not be mistaken for the Lakers' "Showtime" of the early and mid 80's, this is not a slow team. The quartet of [Phelps|Williams|Reese|Lynch] stack up against any other four 1-4 players in the ACC, including FSU. The team does become slow if Rodl is playing guard and Sullivan the wing. However, if Sullivan can play power forward this season, Carolina should be quicker overall. Other than the lumbering presence of Montross, the starters should hold up fine. There will be mismatches, and if Rodl, Sullivan, and Montross are on the floor at the same time, you'll think you're watching a video of grass growing. But it is a mistake to call this team, as a whole, unquick. Strategies To Maximize The Team's Potential ------------------------------------------- Now that I've listed the strengths and weaknesses of the team, offensively, defensively, and overall, what might Coach Smith (or in this case, me) do to maximize this team's potential? Offensive Strategies -------------------- Offensively, the key is diversity. This team cannot be a one-horse show, whether the horse is Montross, Reese, or Williams. Each player must develop as an offensive threat to keep opponents from pulling the kind of sagging defensive maneuvers used last season. Certainly each player has one or more skills to develop, the key being, of course, that more than one actually has to do it. I think I would work really hard on the motion offense, with Montross and Lynch working in a high-low game. If either (or both!) could develop a consistent shot from the foul-line area, this offensive strategy could be very effective. Moving the opposing center out to the foul-line would allow Reese, Williams, Rodl, and Phelps to penetrate more easily if given the opportunity. Another option presented by the Carolina system is the 'T' game, which can be used as a single, double, or triple post game. As a triple post, it looks remarkable like the "Triangle" offense of the Chicago Bulls. Why? Because it is. Dean derived the triple post T game from Tex Winter (Chicago assistant, then Kansas State coach) over 20 years ago and it's been used by Carolina teams ever since. This system, which allows Carolina to use two big men comfortably, might be used more this year, too. It provides excellent opportunity for the inside game, as well as providing open three pointers for guards. It is vitally important that both the inside and outside game develop this year. For each step either game makes, it will help the other, since a stronger inside game will open the outside game up more and vice-versa. When the open shots are there, they must be knocked down. When the shooter is covered, the big man inside must get the ball. I think Williams and Montross could work very effectively in a two-man game situation, and I would not be surprised if these two work that quite a bit this year. An interesting option this year might be using Lynch more on the wing. He certainly needs to learn the position if he ever wants to play in the NBA. There might be a need for this some this year against teams with the really big wing players. Reese isn't big enough to defend in the post, so putting Sullivan or Salvadori at power forward and Lynch on the wing for some minutes would be a nice option. The problem was when this was tried last year, the offense went to pieces. I think this option will be tried, but if George is not producing or a threat offensively at this position, we'll be back to Sullivan playing wing. Finally, I hope these guys catch on to the basic motion offense soon. This group of players has had a really hard time running this offense well, and it's just so important to run it well to have a great team. Dean even said last year that the younger players were still having trouble with this offense, and that he didn't mean Donald. This offense must be run effectively this season. Defensive Options ----------------- On the defensive side of the ball, only a tune-up is in order. Carolina had a couple of rough games when the other team was burying lots of threes and a couple of rough games when the other team was dumping the ball inside at will and scoring easy baskets. This is where the fine tuning must take place. The most impressive aspect of the Carolina defense last season was the seamless switching that went on in the man-to-man defense. Right after the European trip, the team began playing excellent man-to-man defense. When there was a screen, the defense switched men and it was really hard to notice that the switch had even occurred. We can concentrate on a couple of games when the defense did not work that well. The first is the Notre Dame game. Part of the problem was the team mailed this one in and got their butts kicked. However, another problem was that LaPhonso Ellis kept getting open underneath. George sometimes has trouble guarding that kind of player (6-9, big and quick), especially if he doesn't work his hardest. There's really not much UNC can do about this in a man-to-man defense this year, except to work a lot harder and to concentrate one denying the ball. If Derrick Phelps improves more defensively, his pressure on the point man should disrupt many offenses. The second game was the second NC State game. The perimeter defense on the three point shooters was poor, and when they were covered, the defenders weren't working to keep the ball out of the post, where Kevin Thompson got the ball in great position time and time again. This team must learn to remember who they're playing, what threats are on the floor, and to play sound defense all the time. Other nagging problems, which happened in the second State game as well as some others, included a lack of a killer instinct and not hustling hard enough (or appearing not to hustle hard enough) to get rebounds and loose balls. This season, Carolina must play more zone; work on the match-up version of the point zone. Play man-to-man only with certain lineups ore against teams that present good matchups. For example, playing [Phelps|Rodl|Reese|Lynch|Montross] against FSU's [Ward|Cassell|Sura|Edwards|Dobard] man-to-man should be avoided. Certainly a zone anchored by Montross and Salvadori is a good idea; putting a quick team outside (as was done toward the end of the season), even if they're a bit short, is OK, as long as there's beef in the middle. Now I'm not advocating abandoning the man-to-man defense. And I even think Carolina can trap a bit more this year (not like early season last year, but more than was happening at the end) because the players will understand the defenses better. Some of Carolina's problems trapping were caused by a slow team, but many were caused by guys forgetting their assignments and leaving the opposition with easy dunks after breaking the press. That's why Hubert was playing back during the press at the end of the year. I think Carolina should play 30-40% zone defense this year. Less earlier and more later to keep teams from seeing it too much. And mix up a 2-3, 1-3-1, and 3-2 with the point zone to add some variety. The zone must be used whenever the coaching staff finds a weakness that the opposing team can exploit to breakdown the man-to-man. However, a fine line must be walked, as the man-to-man must be used as much as possible, especially early in the year. The limits of this team's man-to-man capabilities, depending on which lineup is playing, must be determined early and under game conditions. Lineups: Starting and Potential Substitutions ---------------------------------------------- For the team this season, look for a rotation of 8: proj minutes Phelps (34) Williams (28) Reese (30) Lynch (30) Montross (30) Rodl (20) Sullivan (12) Salvadori (16) with Calabria or Davis possibly getting some time at guard. This is the first time in 2 years that there is an obvious rotation of eight starting the season. I don't think anyone will crack this eight for more than 4 minutes a game. Note that I've tried to average these minutes out for the season. You'll see games where Phelps plays 38-40 or Montross gets in foul trouble and only plays 20 minutes or so, etc. That leaves: Cherry - early season backup point; garbage time Wenstrom - will get some minutes when Eric and/or Sal get into foul trouble Geth - garbage time Davis - maybe some time at point later in the year; garbage time Calabria - see Davis Zwikker (redshirt) And it might do to redshirt Geth, too. I do like this team, especially if Sullivan's time is spent at power forward and not the wing. Rodl could prove to be the best 6th man in the country. He can play 1-3 if necessary. I like him better spelling Reese and Phelps (and moving Donald or Calabria/Davis to point if Rodl is in for Phelps). A couple of interesting teams arise from the 8 man rotation: The starting lineup for one. It could be very strong. [Phelps|Williams|Lynch|Sullivan|Montross/Sal] - leads to a very big lineup that isn't too slow. Works well against teams with a muscular wing (Say Georgia Tech with Forrest or Wake Forest with Rodney "Superstar" Rogers.) [Phelps|Rodl|Reese|Lynch|Montross] - A big guard team with good defense. [Phelps|Williams/Reese|Lynch|Sal|Montross]- Can you say 'zone' boys and girls? [Williams|Rodl/Calabria|Reese|Sullivan|Montross] - 3pt team. [Phelps/Davis|Williams|Calabria|Sullivan|Montross] - 3 guard team [Phelps/Davis|Williams|Calabria|Reese|Sullivan] - short 3 guard team How Good Can This Team Be? -------------------------- I do like UNC's team for next season. Each player needs to improve, but if a few of them do, the team should do well. They do need to be more consistent on offense, and that's where I think the loss of Davis may help the most. The rest of the team knows they have to score. Indeed, if 1) Reese dribbles and shoots better; 2) Phelps shoots better; 3) Sullivan extracts his head from his butt for whole games; 4) Montross develops more inside moves (he says he is); 5) Sal gets stronger, more consistent, and more aggressive rebounding; 6) Donald becomes Hubert (or a good imitation); 7) Lynch becomes a consistent 15 ft shooter; 8) Rodl shoots more, and more quickly, UNC would be awesome. Just getting 4 of the 8 would make UNC a Final 4 contender. The most important of these 8 are 4, 6, 1, and 7. If Lynch could develop a solid 3 pt shot.... I feel the most likely to happen is 6(*), followed by 4, 5, and 1. The least likely are 8, 3, 2, and 7. (*) Let me elaborate here. What I mean is for Donald to come in, shoot 38-40% from the three point line, play good defense, and score 10-15 a game. I don't think this is out of the question at all. The Unexpected or Unpredictable ------------------------------ Some of the "wildcards" that might turn up this year include: 1) How will Dean, who lives by tradition and repetition, deal with the decrease in practice days this season? (Start date Nov. 1) 2) How will the team perform against strong early competition? And how will the team react to the performances, whether good or bad? 3) Getting commitments from some of the good high school players (Livingston, Stackhouse, Wallace, etc.) might put the coaching staff in a more relaxed state of mind. [Ed - note Livingston has already verbally committed to LSU.] 4) Meeting Louisville in the round of 16 in the NCAA's (I'd say very likely, as likely as Duke meeting Vandy in the round of 32). It'll be interesting to see (if this happens) how much Rozier has improved and whether his emotional play can carry Louisville to a victory. The Schedule ------------ UNC Men's Basketball Schedule 1992-93 Season November 20 - Blue White Game 24 - High Five America (Carmichael) 28 - Australian National Team December 1 - Old Dominion 4-5 - Tournament of Champions at Charlotte (vs South Carolina, Texas vs Princeton) 9 - Virginia Tech at Roanoke 13 - Houston 20 - at Butler 22 - at Ohio State(ESPN) 27-30 Rainbow Classic at Honolulu (ESPN) (Kansas, Michigan, Hawaii, Fordham, SW Louisiana, 2 creampuffs[I think]) (Dec 27 vs SW Louisiana) January 4 - Cornell 7 - at NC State 9 - Maryland 13 - Georgia Tech 16 - at Clemson 20 - Virginia 24 - at Seton Hall(Super Bowl Network) 27 - Florida State 30 - at Wake Forest February 3 - at Duke(JP/ESPN) 6 - NC State(NBC) 9 - at Maryland 14 - at Georgia Tech 17 - Clemson 21 - at Virginia 24 - Notre Dame(NBC) 27 - at Florida State March 3 - Wake Forest() 7 - Duke(NBC) 11-14 ACC Tournament This is a very strong schedule, with only one true creampuff (Cornell). There are games, or potential games, with 11 non-ACC NCAA tournament teams. There are also 8 ACC games vs NCAA opponents and 2 against NIT champion Virginia. That is the usual crap you read about schedules. Let's take a serious look at the schedule. The games are tough. Butler and ODU will still be good. Houston will not be as dangerous as last year. Ohio State will be down due to the loss of Jimmy Jackson, but they have good recruits and will be tough at home. Notre Dame...well, they're not going to set world on fire and they will lose to Carolina this year, probably badly. The game at Seton Hall in January should be a very good game. Seton Hall will remember the pasting Carolina gave them in the ACC/Big East Challenge last year. This year, the ACC has 3 very good teams and 4 teams on the next level. The top 3 (Carolina, FSU, and Duke) should each have very good years and finish 2 games ahead of the #4 spot. Carolina should fare well in the ACC this year, losing no more than 5 games, with 3 or 4 being a more likely total. This schedule is a good schedule. It challenges the team with quality opponents with most of those games on the road. This is not the weak team of 89/90 playing too strong of a schedule. Nor is it the schedule that allowed a young team to play many of home games last season. It's a strong schedule for a strong team, and should temper the team for the NCAA's. About the only thing I'd change is swapping the Seton Hall and Notre Dame games. I'd rather be playing a team with a bit more punch at the end of the season. I think the real reason Dean's playing Notre Dame so late is so Jimmy Black (Notre Dame assistant, '82 point guard) can pick apart the Carolina weaknesses and show Dean how a good coach will try and exploit UNC's weak spots during the post-season. It'll also give Dean a couple of weeks to try and shore up those soft spots. Post-Season Potential, Final 4 Predictions ------------------------------------------ I think, if things develop well, Carolina has the potential to be a legitimate contender for the National Championship next season. Certainly, a Final 4 is not out of the question, and I will be disappointed if they don't make the Final 8. (Projected regular season record: 22-5) I'm looking for a Final 4 appearance, personally. Bonus -- Curtis' early Final 4: FSU(*), Michigan(+), Memphis State, Carolina * If Cassell isn't eligible (and it looks like he will be) or Ward goes down with an injury during the football season, substitute Kansas. (+) If any of Michigan's players are eligible this season (that's a joke, son). General Sounding Off -------------------- I believe that Dean Smith has done a masterful job getting the most out of his teams in the last few years. Losing Roy Williams and Eddie Fogler bang-bang back in 1988 really hurt Dean, because they'd been his right and left hands for years. The new coaches had trouble getting started on the recruiting trail and some situations were handled poorly. Others, like the Kenny Anderson/ Bobby Hurley fiasco, just sort of happened. That kind of thing occurs occasionally in college recruiting. It wasn't until the class of 1990 that the recruiting got back on an even keel. If Dean and his staff can pull in one or two top 20 recruits this year, I think it's safe to say you'll see Carolina back in the top 10 every year until Dean retires. (Acknowledgements: Some of the information on individual player's progress came from the Poop Sheet. Other folks provided information and insight, including Suresh Rajgopal, Subhash Roy, Erik Erikson, Peter Chu, Bucky Ransdell, Kevin Denelsbeck and Super Dave Chen).