Subject: APPS: "Virtual Reality Could Liberate the Disabled," article

From: [email-masked] (Tony Akins)
Date: 14 Feb 92 21:37:41 GMT

First, my thanks go out to Bob Jackson for his invite to post my
"presentation" here.  A little background as to where this idea
came from: I'm a student in the Studies of the Futures graduate
program at University of Houston-Clear Lake, and I'm particularly
interested in how computers will be used in the future.

The paper "Virtual Reality and the Physically Disabled:
Speculations of the Future," on which the article was based came
out of a "larger" experiment.  As I thought there might be some
interest in the "whole" experiment, I've gathered up some notes
(in other words this is a long posting).

Originally, the main purpose of the experiment was to see how the
ninebox and timeline tools worked across a computer conferencing
environment.  Normally, these tools are used in meetings or group
situations, with people marking or drawing their answers on a
blackboard.  I chose virtual reality as my topic mostly because of
my interest in vr, particularly as a form of human/computer
interface.  The results were interesting, and serve to provide
enough speculation for the paper being presented at the conference
in March.  The article in EE Times capture the essence of the
paper well.

Introduction to The Tools
------------------------

    The Nine-Box
    -------------
    The nine-box is a three by three square, the y axis shows the
    probability of the trend being correct, while the x-axis shows
    the expected impact of the trend.  One places an x in the box
    that best matches one's opinion of the combination of
    probability/impact.

    An example:  The increased use of portable communication
    devices (laptop PCs, cellular phones, paging devices) is
    increasing stress in the home as work is able to follow the
    worker from the office to the home (getting more difficult to
    leave the office).

               +---------+---------+---------+
               |         |         |         |
 P             |         |         |         |
 r      High   |         |         |         |
 o             |         |         |         |
 b   T         +---------+---------+---------+
 a o r         |         |         |         |
 b f e         |         |         |   y     |
 i   n  Medium |         |         |         |
 l   d         |         |         |         |
 i             +---------+---------+---------+
 t             |         |         |         |
 y             |         |         |         |
        Low    |  x      |         |         |
               |         |         |         |
               +---------+---------+---------+

                  Low      Medium     High

    Here we have two respondents, x and y. X feels that the
    probability of the trend occurring is low, and even if it did
    occur would have little impact.  Y has a different opinion,
    feeling that the probability of the trend occurring is medium,
    but that the impact would be high.

    The Timeline
    ------------
    The timeline is used to chart the impact of a technology or
    trend along a timeline.  It is a two dimensional chart.  On
    the y axis we consider the impact, from low to medium to high.
    On the x axis we show the time span, in this case in 5 year
    increments.

    An example:

    The trend:  Big cities might well become obsolete in the
    information age.

    Using the time timeline below, here's how one person plotted
    (drew) their opinion.

          +---------+---------+---------+
          |         |         |         |
          |         |         |       ..|
   High   |         |         |     .   |
          |         |         |   .     |
          +---------+---------+--.------+
          |         |         |  .      |
          |         |         |  .      |
   Medium |         |         | .       |
          |         |         |.        |
          +---------+--------.+---------+
          |         |      .  |         |
          |         |   .     |         |
   Low    |.........|.        |         |
          |         |         |         |
          +---------+---------+---------+
          1990      1995      2000      2005

    The person is showing that they think initially the impact of
    the information age will have little effect on big cities.
    But as time progresses, toward the last 5 years of this
    century, the effect will increase.  In fact, by the early
    years in the next century, the impact will be great.  By the
    year 2005 the impact is leveling off.

An Analysis and Summary of the Experiment
-----------------------------------------

First off, some raw numbers:
    - on November 14, 1990, I announced the experiment and
      asked for volunteers
    - as of Nov 29, 1990, a total of 57 people requested more
      information
    - as of Nov 27, 1990, a total of 26 people sent responses
      to me

Now for a little discussion of how the responses are analyzed.
There are two major items of interest:  the consensus response
(that is, the response that seems to reflect the opinion of the
greatest number of participants) and the outliers (the responses
that for some reason lie outside of the consensus.  Once these
items have been identified, one tries to get the opinions of the
outliers first, as their comments may point to new ideas or
concepts that the "group" may have not considered.  Then you take
a look at the opinions or comments of the consensus.

In some cases a clear consensus or outlier was not apparent, in
those cases, I've reported back on what seem to be the dominant
themes.

....................
. Ninebox Analysis .
....................

Two questions were posed to the audience. I'll report on
each question/trend individually. First trend 1.

Trend 1:
--------

    The impact upon society as the technology of direct
    mind interaction implants is developed and used.

    Total responses: 24

               +---------+---------+---------+
               |         |         |  x x x  |
 P             |    x    |         |  x x x  |
 r      High   |         |         |         |
 o             |         |         |         |
 b   T         +---------+---------+---------+
 a o r         |         |         |  x x x  |
 b f e         |         |         |  x x x  |
 i   n  Medium |         |         |  x x x  |
 l   d         |         |         |         |
 i             +---------+---------+---------+
 t             |         |         |  x x x  |
 y             |   x x   |         |  x x x  |
        Low    |         |         |         |
               |         |         |         |
               +---------+---------+---------+

                  Low      Medium     High

                     Impact of Trend

A single dominant consensus is not really apparent. The
medium probability / high impact (mp/hi) quadrant received
the most "votes" with 9. However, both the high probability /
high impact (hp/hi) and low probability / high impact
(lp/hi) received 6 "votes" each. From that I lean toward
saying the consensus felt that the impact of direct mind
interaction on society would definitely be high, while
the actual probability was spread, with the greatest number
of "votes" saying the probability of direct mind interaction
was medium.

We have two outlier groups, one "vote" was cast for high
probability / low impact (hp/li) and two "votes" were cast
for low probability / low impact (lp/li).

Comments:
Here's a sampling of responses from the outlier groups:
  (hp/li) - possibility for misuse is great, poses dangers
            for health and sanity.
  (li/lp) - Technology interfacing with neurology is still
            at the point of using a backhoe to remove dental
            plaque:  the tools may be powerful but inappropriate.
            Direct mind interaction has many bad possibilities,
            implants could be like mind-altering drugs, or
            worse could be used to control people.

Here's a sampling of responses from the consensus
  (hp/hi) - Good (experiences beyond our imagination will be
            possible) Bad (virtual drugs, escapes from reality)
            "great equalizer" - VR could allow people
            with poor eyesight or other abilities to improve
            their disabilities.
  (mp/hi) - Good and bad possibilities, dependent on how VR is used.
            Could be seen as just another way to interact with
            information (like tv, radio, books)
            Some may see this as being unethical
  (lp/hi) - the bad possibilities of direct mind interaction will
            cause the technology to be unaccepted by wary
            individuals.

Trend 2:
--------
    Business travel decreases as the use of virtual meetings
    rooms and similar VR technology is used in the business
    place to enhance meetings of all kinds.

    Total responses: 25

               +---------+---------+---------+
               |         | x x x x |         |
 P             |         | x x x x |  x x x  |
 r      High   |         | x x x   |         |
 o             |         |         |         |
 b   T         +---------+---------+---------+
 a o r         |         |         |         |
 b f e         |    x    |  x x x  |    x    |
 i   n  Medium |         |   x x   |         |
 l   d         |         |         |         |
 i             +---------+---------+---------+
 t             |         |         |         |
 y             |   x x   |  x x    |         |
        Low    |         |         |         |
               |         |         |         |
               +---------+---------+---------+

                  Low      Medium     High

                     Impact of Trend

This trend produced a more dominant single consensus, but
also resulted in a greater overall spread of answers.  The
high probability / medium impact (hp/mi) quadrant received
the most "votes" with 11.  Another strong showing was by the
medium probability / medium impact (mp/mi) quadrant with 5
votes.  The high probability / high impact quadrant received
3 votes as well.  Based off that the consensus seems to feel
that the probability of the trend occurring is high (14 out
of 25 respondents felt the probability of the trend would be
high), while the impact would be medium (16 out of 25).

The outliers fall into four quadrants (mp/li - 1, mp/hi -1,
lp/li - 2, and lp/mi - 2). The majority of the outliers
leaned toward a low to medium impact of the trend with
low to medium probability of it occurring.

Comments:
Here's a sampling of comments from the outliers:
            In general, outliers felt that there will always
            be a need for business to be conducted "in person,"
            to press the flesh.
            One respondent commented that technological increases
            in travel over the same time period could cause
            the impact of "virtual meetings" to be a washout.

Here's a sampling of responses from the consensus:
  (hp/mi) - businesses become more effective as travel time
            is eliminated.
  (hp/hi) - As business travel drops off, companies whose income
            relies on business will either die off, or will invest
            in VR technology.
  (mp/mi) - possible pressure on businesses to concentrate on
            network working (the workers will work from several
            different locations, and network together) versus
            centralized working (in the central office)

..................................
. Timeline Question and Analysis .
..................................

Trend 1:
--------

    The impact upon society as virtual reality interfaces
    become the preferred method for individuals to
    interact with a computer.

Summary:

    First a quick verbal summary. A total of 27 responses were
    collected. I then grouped the timelines into several
    major curve types, as follows:

   The Consensus
   ------------
      To the Top (s curve)
         12 timelines fell into this category
      To the Top (exponential)
         3 timelines fit this curve

      The burp
         6 timelines fall in this category

   In the middle
   -------------
      Medium Growth
         1 person used an "s" curve to show a medium growth
         of impact across the timeline
         2 people used a more or less straightline to chart
         growth of impact from low to medium.

   The Outliers
   ------------
      Slow fall
         1 timeline was in this category. This timeline
         considered the impact of ascii vr devices, and
         plotted impact from high down to medium over the
         life of the timeline
      Low growth
         1 person used a more or less straightline to chart
         that little impact would occur over the life of the
         timeline

To give you an idea of how the consensus curves look, I've
reproduced them below.

(12) s - To the top, shows a rapid rate of growth, followed
         by a period of stabilization.

          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
          |         |         |         |   s s s s s s s s |
          |         |         |         | s       |         |
   High   |         |         |         s         |         |
          |         |         |       s |         |         |
          +---------+---------+-----s---+---------+---------+
          |         |         |    s    |         |         |
          |         |         |   s     |         |         |
   Medium |         |         |  s      |         |         |
          |         |         | s       |         |         |
          +---------+---------s---------+---------+---------+
          |         |        s|         |         |         |
          |         |      s  |         |         |         |
   Low    |         |    s    |         |         |         |
          |s s s s s|s s      |         |         |         |
          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
          1990      1995      2000      2005      2010      2015

(3) t - To the top, shows a steady growth of impact, from
        low to high impact by the end of the time frame.
        In some cases, an almost exponential growth was
        shown.

          +---------+---------+---------+---------+------t--+
          |         |         |         |         |     t   |
          |         |         |         |         |    t    |
   High   |         |         |         |         |    t    |
          |         |         |         |         |   t     |
          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---t-----+
          |         |         |         |         |  t      |
          |         |         |         |         |tt       |
   Medium |         |         |         |      t t|         |
          |         |         |         |  t t    |         |
          +---------+---------+--------t+t--------+---------+
          |         |         |    t t  |         |         |
          |         |         |t t      |         |         |
   Low    |         | t  t  t |         |         |         |
          |t t t t t|         |         |         |         |
          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
          1990      1995      2000      2005      2010      2015

(6) b - The burp curve, shows a steady rise, fall, then
        stabilization.

          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
          |         |         |         |         |         |
          |         |         |         |         |         |
   High   |         |         |         |  b b    |         |
          |         |         |         |b     b  |         |
          +---------+---------+--------b+--------b+b--------+
          |         |         |    b b  |         |  b b b b|
          |         |         |  b      |         |         |
   Medium |         |         |b        |         |         |
          |         |      b b|         |         |         |
          +---------+--b-b--- +---------+-------- +---------+
          |         |b        |         |         |         |
          |      b b|         |         |         |         |
   Low    |    b    |         |         |         |         |
          |b b      |         |         |         |         |
          +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
          1990      1995      2000      2005      2010      2015

Comments:
In general a majority of the group feels that VR would play
a significant role in how we use computers in the future.
Many felt the impact of VR would be slow in coming, but
once started would grow rapidly. Those who drew "burp" and
"s" curves often saw VR as experiencing a very heavy growth
then stabilizing as the technology becomes accepted in
society, up to the same degree as microwaves, vcrs and the
like are accepted today. At that point the impact stabilizes
or actually suffers a fall.

Trend 2:
--------
    Increasing interest in the VR field will lead to
    inexpensive, and available VR technology that will
    enhance the lives of the physically handicapped.

Summary:

    First a quick verbal summary. A total of 25 responses were
    collected. I then grouped the timelines into several
    major curve types, as follows:

   The Consensus
   ------------
      To the Top (s curve)
         7 timelines fell into this category
      To the Top (exponential)
         6 timelines fit this curve

      Medium Growth
         5 timelines fell into this category, 1 was an "s"
         type.
      Low Growth
         5 timelines fell into this category, and were mostly of
         the straightline type.

   The Outliers
   ------------
      The burp
         1 timeline fell in this category

Comments:
  As can be seen this timeline produced a much greater spread,
  with the result being it was a bit difficult to pick a dominant
  impact timeline. Over half of the people who drew timelines
  felt that VR could have a very significant impact on the lives
  of the handicapped, by providing an environment, a virtual
  reality where they would not be handicapped. VR could also
  offer the possibility of aiding people with handicaps, by
  improving sight, hearing, helping paraplegics to walk, etc..

  On the other hand, 10 of the group felt that the expense of
  VR technology would almost surely keep the technology from
  having a large impact on the lives of the handicapped. In fact,
  the expense was noted by one respondent as something that
  would cause a (temporarily) greater separation between
  the handicapped and the rest of the population. VR would be
  available to those who could afford it, which would normally
  not include the handicapped.

Tony Akins