Subject: R22 replacements, why?

From: [email-masked]
Date: 31 Jul 1995 13:27:23 GMT

I am puzzled why there is a need for an R22 replacement. The refrigerant will remain
in production for 25 years. During that time we discover that it's ozone depletion is
not significant or even scrap the Montreal Protocols.
	Some commercial and industrial machines may have a 20+ year lifespan, even
so, those units will be nearly ready for replacement.
	So what am I missing?

Jim Sullivan

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From: [email-masked] (Victoria Kamm)
Date: 31 Jul 1995 15:59:38 GMT

>so, those units will be nearly ready for replacement.

While it is true that  production will continue for another 25 years (35 
years actually since the HCFC phaseout is currently 2030).  However, we 
need to take into account the phaseout schedule as it can affect our 
customers ability to purchase the refrigerant when they need it down the 
road.

The schedule is based on 1989 production +/-.  Reductions begin in 2005.
 
          Year                          Capacity
           2004                         100%
           2005                           65%
           2010                           35%
           2015                           10%
           2020                          0.5%
           2030                           0.0%

As capacity declines with no difference in demand, price increases.  
Simple economics.  Now where on this chart will your customers stop being 
able to afford new R-22 purchases?  

Of course, if you have equipment with a 20+ year lifespan that is 
operating normally it would be foolish to replace it.  Any R-12 or R-502 
equipment that is working this year shouldn't be replaced only because 
the CFC phaseout is the end of this year.  Once again, simple economics.

While it's possible the Montreal Protocol will no longer be needed in 25 
years, I think it is imperative as professionals in this industry to 
present all the information we possibly can to our customers/staffs and 
help them make choices.  This is an opportunity to take the lead in the 
transition because we are experts instead of allowing the government 
another chance to regulate us.

Victoria Kamm

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From: [email-masked]
Date: 2 Aug 1995 01:37:19 GMT

>customers ability to purchase the refrigerant when they need it down the 

Victoria, In reality, the current phaseout schedule will most certainly
be accelerated.  Germany, for one, will ban the use of R-22 by the year 2000.
Several countries will follow suit.  a/c equipment manufacturers in the US
will be ready to jump off the R-22 ship shortly.

The use of CFCs in the US was to extend to the year 2000.  Now production
will stop at the end of this year, and all refrigeration equipment manufacturers
in the US to speak of have already switched to alternatives.  The conversion
happened much quicker than the EPA expected.  In fact, the amusing aspect of it
all is they did not collect anywhere near the CFC tax revenue they expected.

The real issue is will R-22 be taxed, and how significantly.  Tax it, and
it will disappear.

Andy Schoen
[email-masked]