Subject: CND Survey Report on Beijing's Bidding for Olympic Games

From: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 12 May 1993 01:48:03 EDT

*  *  *   C h i n a   N e w s   D i g e s t   *  *  *

           Special Series on China and 2000 Olympic Games (Part I)

                         Wednesday, May 12, 1993

                  CND Survey Report on Readers' Attitude
              Towards Beijing's Bid to Host 2000 Olympic Games

Table of Contents                                                 # of Lines
============================================================================
1. Foreword ............................................................. 20
2. The Survey ........................................................... 35
3. Readers' Approval of The Beijing's Bidding ........................... 75
4. Prediction of The Winner of The Bid ................................. 100
5. About Survey Participants' Background ................................ 75
6. Conclusion ........................................................... 35
============================================================================

1. Foreword
-----------

For friendship, competition, and conquest, elites of human being are highly
motivated to race for the top performance in Olympics Games.  For joy,
satisfaction, and frustration, Olympic Games always brings our emotions to
the peak.  It is said that international sport is a war at the peace time
in which countries and nations fight with high spirits.  If that is true,
Olympic Games are world wars repeated every four years in the modern history.
Indeed, with all of those medals, flowers, tears, money, and politics, the
Olympics is honorable, though not always.

Now, Beijing Municipality is bidding to host the 2000 Olympic Games. This
is the very first bid for the Olympics from a Chinese city in history.  The
International Olympic Committee will make final decision on site selection
by the end of September.  An overwhelming campaign is taking place in China
all over the country.  Overseas Chinese community also pays great attention
to the development. Here, CND brings you a survey report on readers' attitude
towards Beijing's Bidding.

2. The Survey
-------------

This survey was conducted from April 10-22, 1993, as a sampling one.
The targeted population for this survey was more than 26,000 CND direct
individual subscribers by the time the survey began.

On April 10, the questionnaire was delivered via e-mail to 1305 readers
selected by random sampling.  The choice of sample size is validated by
Krejcie and Morgan's table in "Determining sample size for research
activities" (Educational and Psychological Measurement, 1970, v.30,
pp607-610).  The final sample size is actually 3.44 times larger than the
recommanded size of 379 for a population of 30,000.  The bigger sample size
was based on the consideration that the survey contains six multi-choices,
which would increase the possibility of fewer answers chosen.

On April 16, 20, and 22, three follow-up messages were sent to readers who
hadn't replied. By the midnight of April 22 - the deadline of the survey,
425 replies were received, with 10 more coming after the deadline. We took
those late arrivals as valid data as well, considering the delay was possibly
due to the malfunction of network mail services.  Thus, the total count of
replies was 435, among which there were 29 completely empty messages.

The return rate for this survey was 31.11%, not counting those invalid
replies (e.g., empty messages and duplicates from same participants).  It
is believed that this return rate was at a reasonable level to interpret
the survey results to the targeted population, especially to those who are
interested in the topic.

The following is a brief report about the survey result, in which we provide
a brief and rough analysis only.  The error margins were reported at the 95%
confident level, whenever they were appropriate. We have intentionally left
more space for readers to interpret those data with readers' own judgement.

3. Readers' Approval of The Beijing's Bidding
---------------------------------------------

Our first three survey questions were intended to measure readers' approval
level for Beijing's bidding to host the Olympic Games.  The result shows that
the majority of CND readers maintain a positive attitude for the issue,
although there were some obvious concerns.

The first question was designed to test reader's attitude toward's Beijing
City Government's campaign, which asks,

     It is reported that Beijing City Government is campaigning for
     the Olympics bid with an enthusiastic effort.  This campaign may
     have some influence on Beijing citizen's daily life.  Among the
     following six statements, you mostly agree that the campaign
     will, (Choose ONE answer only.)

     N=406                                       ERROR MARGIN=+-4.14
     +-----------------------------------------------+-----+-------+
     | Answers                                       |  n  |   %   |
     +-----------------------------------------------+-----+-------+
     |(a) Improve their quality of life greatly      |  55 | 13.58 |
     |(b) Improve their quality of life somehow      | 223 | 55.06 |
     |(c) Have no influence on their quality of life |  61 | 15.06 |
     |(d) Deteriorate their quality of life somehow  |  42 | 10.37 |
     |(e) Deteriorate their quality of life greatly  |   5 |  1.23 |
     |(f) No answer                                  |  20 |  4.94 |
     +-----------------------------------------------+-----+-------+

This question was designed based on the fact that many voluntary and
forced donation drives are taking places under such circumstance in China.
With 406 replies, 68.64% of them showed an approval attitude towards Beijing
Government's bidding effort when citizen's quality of life is concerned.  In
contract, only 11.60% responses disapproved the campaign in this regard.
There are 20% readers felt the citizen's quality of life might not be
influenced or the question might not be relevant.  They didn't pass a
judgement here.

The second and the third questions were closely related.  Those were to tap
readers approval/disapproval for hosting Olympics games in Beijing in general.
Readers were advised to choose all answers applicable, including one option
for objection.  We received 402 replies to the first question and 392 to the
second one.  Both questions read,

     To assess the outcome of Beijing's bid, you mostly agree that
     hosting the 2000 Olympic Games will [improve/bring/promote]
     (Choose ALL answers applicable.)

                                     N=409           N=392
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
     | Answers                      |Pro (n)|   %   |Disp(n)|   %   |
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
     |(a) China's image             |  263  | 65.42 |    3  |  0.77 |
     |(b) People's living standard  |   52  | 12.94 |   27  |  6.89 |
     |(c) Economic benefits         |  168  | 41.79 |  108  | 27.55 |
     |(d) understanding among people|  265  | 65.92 |   21  |  5.36 |
     |(e) Others (please specify)   |   35  |  8.71 |   22  |  5.61 |
     |(f) Objection                 |   21  |  5.22 |  240  | 61.22 |
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

The results indicate that readers believed that hosting Olympics Games would
help understanding of China by people of other countries, boost China's image
in the international community, and bring economic benefit to China.  On the
other hand, readers' most negative concern was the economic burden brought
about in the process.  Some readers tried to bring up the question, that who
will be really benefited when both economic benefit and burden are eventually
resulted in.

Please notice that the readers' approval level for hosting Olympics Games in
general is noticeably higher than that for Beijing's current bidding campaign
when citizen's quality of life is concerned.  That is, close to 95% readers
feel positively one way or the other for hosting Olympics Games at Beijing,
while less than 70% of readers feel Beijing's citizen's quality of life would
be improved through the current campaign.  This attitude illustrates a great
concern with the economic burden possibly brought about to host the Games.

4. Prediction of The Winner of The Bid
--------------------------------------

While readers' support to host Olympics Games was strong as shown above,
they didn't underestimate the difficulty to win the bid.  When we asked
readers how strongly they felt that Beijing would win the bid, readers showed
a conservatively optimistic attitude for the issue.  The question 4, answered
by 401 readers, reads,

     To predict the result of Beijing's bid, you mostly agree that,
     the bid will have (choose ONE answer only.  Alternatively, you may
     directly enter your estimated % number.)

     N=401                                       ERROR MARGIN=+-4.24
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+
     | Answers                                     |   n   |   %   |
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+
     | (a)  Greater than 80% chance to win         |   31  |  7.73 |
     | (b)  80%-60% of winning chance              |  137  | 34.16 |
     | (c)  60%-40% of winning chance              |  159  | 39.65 |
     | (d)  40%-20% of winning chance              |   33  |  8.23 |
     | (e)  Less than 20% chance to win            |    8  |  2.00 |
     | (f)  No answer                              |   33  |  8.23 |
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+

Since "No answer" was one of options in the original question, the middle
point for those 368 readers who were brave enough to cast their predictions
was 58.15%. That is slightly above the necessary 50% faith of winning chance.

The following two questions were to explore readers' arguments that support
their predication made above.  In the questions, we asked readers to evaluate
several perspectives of the current social environment in China and other
circumstance that might have major impacts on the outcome of the bidding.
The question was,

     Among the following aspects, you believe that the strongest (or
     weakest) one that would lead Beijing to WIN (or LOSS) the bid is,
     (Choose ALL answers applicable.)

                                    N=402           N=399
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
     | Answers                      |Pos.(n)|   %   |Neg.(n)|   %   |
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
     | (a) Economic environment     |  208  | 51.74 |   27  |  6.77 |
     | (b) Political environment    |   72  | 17.91 |  257  | 64.41 |
     | (c) Necessary facilities     |   94  | 23.38 |   81  | 20.30 |
     | (d) International competition|  126  | 31.34 |   76  | 19.05 |
     | (e) Others. Please specify   |   68  | 16.92 |   27  |  6.77 |
     | (f) No answer                |   49  | 12.19 |   36  |  9.02 |
     +------------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

As the results reveal, economic development in China was recognized as a
strong card with which people believe Beijing government may play an upper
hand.  Out of 402 readers, 51.74% readers approving this and 41.49% readers
keeping silent.  Only 6.77% readers gave a negative credit to the government
for economic growth.

However, the domestic political environment can hardly be regarded as a
positive side in spite of 72 readers cast a positive vote to this aspect.
Out of 399 answers to the negative question, 64.41% of them showed their
uneasy feeling, composing an overwhelming objective number reported in this
poll.  This simply means even though some of those who support the bid with
an optimistic attitude, they can't get ride of the political shadows.

When readers provided their own explanations to those questions, more often
then not they regarded the largest population, long historical tradition,
and a culture of a great variety were the strongest points that could lead to
the win.  Several readers suggested the timing be favorite to China as well.
On the other hand, those who tried to speculate other weak points seemed to
fall into the issues of political disputes faced by the government.  For
instance, some suggested that Chinese government be motivated to fix their
political image by hosting the Games.  Others felt that the hostile force
might take the chance to ruin China's reputation by spoiling the bidding.

Finally, we asked readers to pick the most favorable one among six competing
cities.  This turned out a tough question since only 384 readers answered,
the lowest return rate for all ten questions.  The question was,

     The city, that you think, will MOST likely win the bid is,

     N=384
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+
     | Answers                                     |   n   |   %   |
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+
     | (a)  Sydney, Australia                      |  174  | 45.31 |
     | (b)  Brasilia, Brazil                       |   15  |  3.91 |
     | (c)  Beijing, China                         |  183  | 47.66 |
     | (d)  Berlin, Germany                        |   57  | 14.84 |
     | (e)  Istanbul, Turkey                       |    5  |  1.30 |
     | (f)  Manchester, United Kingdom             |    4  |  1.04 |
     +---------------------------------------------+-------+-------+

This questions was intended to receive one answer only from each reader.
However, quite a few readers just couldn't limit their choices to a single
city.  As you may see from the chart, Beijing shares the lead with Sydney
marginally.  Indeed, Milan got out the picture due to scandals when the
survey started.  Brasilia, Istanbul and Manchester are little known to many
readers, Berlin was haunted by its environmentists and other objective
parties.  Only Sydney and Beijing are backed by their top governments.  No
wonder readers' judgement on the international competition in this round was
favorable to China. But apparently this situation was favorable to Aussies as
well in many readers' eyes.

5. About Survey Participants' Background
----------------------------------------

This survey also included a section for personal background information,
i.e., how long they have been in Mainland China, how long they have been
in Beijing, and how long since they left China. We counted 395 answers for
those three questions, which we omitted here.

      N=395               E.M.=+-2.88   E.M.+-=3.99   E.M.=+-4.17
     +-------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
     |                   |Have been in |Have been in | Since  left |
     | Answers           |  Mainland   |   Beijing   |   Mainland  |
     |                   |-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+
     |                   |  n  |   %   |  n  |   %   |  n  |   %   |
     +-------------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+
     | (a) >= four years | 355 | 89.87 | 121 | 30.63 | 162 | 41.01 |
     | (b) < four years  |   3 |  0.76 |  26 |  6.58 | 110 | 27.85 |
     | (c) < Two years   |   5 |  1.27 |  30 |  7.59 |  50 | 12.66 |
     | (d) < Six months  |  10 |  2.53 |  83 | 21.01 |  23 |  5.82 |
     | (e) < One month   |   8 |  2.03 |  95 | 24.05 |  15 |  3.80 |
     | (f) Never or N/A  |  14 |  3.54 |  40 | 10.13 |  34 |  8.86 |
     +-------------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+

Do these data mean something?  Sometimes do and sometime don't. It is
noticed that we lack an even distribution for people who have been in
Beijing for 1-3 years intervals, as well as those who left China for
less than one year.

In addition, we took a close look at some replies at break down level to
check out whether or not the background characters played a role in them. For
instance, we broke down the replies to the first question by the time length
readers have been in Mainland China.  As high as 89.87% readers have been in
China four years or more.  The comparison for their replies to the first
question is given below with the overall answers and answers from those who
have less then four years China experience.

                                N=406        N=354          N=52
                             E.M.=+-4.14   E.M.=+-4.41  E.M.=+-11.92
     +---------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
     |                     |             | >= 4 Years  |  < 4 Years  |
     |                     |   Overall   | China Exper.| China Exper.|
     |                     +-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+
     | Answers             |  N  |   %   |  N  |   %   |  N  |   %   |
     +---------------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+
     |(a) Improve          |  55 | 13.58 |  46 | 12.99 |   9 | 17.31 |
     |(b) Improve somehow  | 223 | 55.06 | 201 | 56.78 |  22 | 42.31 |
     |(c) No influence     |  61 | 15.06 |  49 | 13.84 |  12 | 23.08 |
     |(d) Deteriorate someh|  42 | 10.37 |  34 |  9.60 |   8 | 15.38 |
     |(e) Deteriorate      |   5 |  1.23 |   4 |  1.13 |   1 |  1.92 |
     |(f) No answer        |  20 |  4.94 |  20 |  5.65 |   0 |  0.00 |
     +---------------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+-----+-------+

Indeed, it is hard to find a statistical difference among those who have
been in China for various periods, especially when there were too few
counts from the group with less than four years of China experience.  Thus,
one of the reasons for not finding this type of difference could be the
shown data which were mainly composed of those who came from the Mainland
China.  However, analysis shows there is no significant difference for other
two background characters in answering this question too.

We checked into the background character distributions for those who feel
hosting the Olympic Games would improve China's image and enhance the mutual
understanding among people.  No significant difference was found as well.

We also didn't find significant difference among answers to several questions
about winning predictions, except that we found those who have been in
Beijing for four years or more are more favorite Beijing's winning chance over
that for Sydney.  That is, while this group presented 30.63% of overall sample
size, they took 35.36% among those who picked Beijing as the favorite city,
and only 28.65% among those who picked Sydney.  But this could be regarded as
a marginal difference only.

In summary, we found that readers' replies are quite independent from
their background characters when dealing questions asked in the survey.

6. Conclusion
-------------

With findings through this survey, it is clear to say that this survey
presents reader's viewpoint fairly independent of their background
characters.

In general, our readers have a strong support for Beijing to host 2000
Olympic Games, which will be the first time in China if Beijing wins the bid.
Most of people feel that hosting Olympics would have several positive impacts
to their home country.  Although there would be some negative impacts, those
might be adjustable in the long run.  They give a passable approval for
Beijing Government's bidding campaign when citizen's quality of life is
concerned.

However, our readers narrowly believe that there are positive chance that
Beijing could win the bidding.  Readers recognize the economic development
taking place in China, while questioning the government's unpopular
political image or slow progresses than expected.  Based on that, readers
tend to believe both Beijing and Sydney would have an equally good chance to
win the bid.

Finally, we would like to remind you that CND as a whole takes no stand in
conducting such a survey.  We are aware that our readers may or may not agree
the conclusions drawn based on this survey.  However, we believe that readers
would appreciate the chance to see how other readers are thinking on this
issue.

The International Olympic Committee started their visits to all six bidding
cities when this survey began. Now, they have finished their inspection
visits.  Reports said that the Committee gave all cities favorable feedback
when left, hopping the competing cities might take the chance to make more
improvement before site selection is finally made.  Could Beijing improve and
take the win?  It will be known on September 23, 1993.

China News Digest
May 12, 1993

+--------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                           CND Pollster:  Huijie Chen     (U.S.A.)        |
|       Poll Replies Computer Processing:  Minghui Yao     (U.S.A.)        |
|                       Executive Editor:  Bo Xiong        (U.S.A.)        |
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