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Re: Kenny fails YOUR stats!



In article <40dcqa$ss7@news-e1a.megaweb.com>, kennystar@megaweb.com (KENNY MORSE) writes:
> In article <1995Aug9.145912.5944@cmkrnl> Jamie Hanrahan, Kernel Mode Systems wrote:
>>Sure, a few will exceed any posted limit.  But how many?  
> 
> The answer.....MOST!

At ANY limit?

>>>>(Challenge TWO) Ask you students if the limit was raised 10 to 15 mph if 
>>>>they would exceed it automatically.
>>> 
>>> Kev...I DID ask. In TWO classes now (since Jaime asked me to) and
>>> the answer was "probably".  And there it is.  
>>
>>That wasn't the question I asked you to ask.  I asked you to ask them,
>>approximately, "what if the posted limit was above the max speed at
>>which you feel comfortable on that same road today?  Would you STILL 
>>drive 10 or 15 mph over the limit?"  That's a different question 
>>entirely. 
> 
> Jaime...

(Could you PLEASE at least trouble yourself to spell my name 
properly???  Mine is the Scottish spelling, not the Spanish...)

> I don't know what happened to the post where I DID answer your
> questions about what I posed to clas.
> 
> I asked the question as Kevin asked.  I think YOUR question as
> asked is moot.  To ask people that if the speed limit was 75,
> would they only go 65 if THAT is where they felt comfortable is
> obvious.  We already have that in place. People CAN go a minimum
> of 45mph (if that is where THEY feel comfortable on the freeway) 

You're avoiding the issue.  Could it be because the answer won't be 
the one you've been promoting?

> 1) People who speed because they simply WANT TO for their
> own reasons:
>                 Late
>                 Fun
>                 Making money
>                 Feel comfortable at THAT speed

At least you've added that one to your list. 

>                 Disrespect the law
>                 Disregard all laws
> 
> 2) People who speed because they HAVE TO:
>                 Because going 55 will get you killed since EVERYONE
> is going faster!
>                 To keep up with the flow for their OWN sense of comfort
>                 Their own sense of personal emergency
> 
> Yes, people do what is comfortable for them.....YOU DO!  Since there
> will always be set speed limits (at least within yours and my lifetime),
> the question is : Is it set fairly, based on SAFETY (which should be the
> first consideration) and is it being enforced?  People's personal sense of
> comfort should NOT be the barometer by which speed limits are set...

But T&W found that most people's "comfortable" speed (the 85th 
percentile speed) IS within the safest range of speeds.  I don't see 
how you can argue that it isn't a good indicator of where the speed 
should be set.  

> therefore the premise YOU keep trying to assert is irrelevant, and
> as far as I'm concerned...NOT the operative concept in drivers in
> California.  

I don't think so.  I'm making just one "leap of faith", that being 
that "comfort" is what sets an upper limit on speed for most people, 
most of the time.  Lots of things go into "discomfort" (including the 
fear of getting ticketed, but given the number of speeders out there, 
this would not seem to be a prime consideration!).  

>> These are average drivers
>>> who absolutey reflect a cross section of California drivers who were
>>      ^^^^^^^^^
>>
>>This is called "proof by vigorous assertion".  You'll have to do 
>>better than that.  
> Nope...I don't have to. 

You will, if you want to convince anyone that you aren't simply too 
blinded by your own beliefs to open your eyes and see something that 
might be true in spite of them. 

Every indication so far, though, is that you just don't care WHAT 
people think of you in that regard. 

> You lucked out. Thats all. Mr. Jaime is going to be a future
> student doing 75-80. Bet on it!

Not on THAT road.  75-80 is within the range in which you won't get
run over.  

> Just like YOU and most drivers going too fast!  75-80. Jaime!!!!
> Too fast for what? YOUR comfort? Safety?  No. Obviously
> we disagree. For what???? THE LAW! Play or Pay  my friend.

Safety, yes.  See above.  Much slower and you're in the same situation 
as you are at 55 between SD and LA under "open conditions".  

>>Re 85:  Kenny, we *have* a _de facto_ limit of 85 today -- on I-5 from
>>the 99 junction (just south of Bakersfield) to, roughly the 152
>>junction.  Slow drivers do 65-70 on that road, fast drivers do 75-80.
>>It isn't that there's no enforcement, either; drivers doing 90
>>get ticketed -- I've yet to be passed by anyone doing much more than
>>85 on that road and NOT see them pulled over a few or even tens of
>>miles later.  It works; the accident rate per vehicle-mile on that
>>road is very low. 
>>
> Boy, you don't teach traffic school in Bakersfield.  When you
> start doing THAT, give me a call.  You'll change your mind
> about your observations.

Bear in mind that the numbers people are written for (and admit to) 
are often lower than the actual speeds.  

Frankly I trust the evidence of my eyes a lot more than hearsay about 
what people say, in traffic school, that they do.  

>>As I see it, the real problem with posted limits that reflect the
>>actual maximum safe speed under ideal conditions is indeed one of
>>driver education -- but not for those conditions; they do just fine
>>under ideal conditions. 
> 
> I agree.
> 
>> I think that what we need is better awareness
>>of when the posted speed is *too high*.  There are very few CHP
>>officers who will ticket you for 65 or even 70 on the 210 when the
>>road is almost deserted
> 
> Nonsense.  Stop tell me what cops will do.  Until you
> stop getting them in YOUR classes, THEN your assertion
> will have some weight.  Cops WILL....cops DO.....

But once again, how many, and under what conditions?  So you get some 
folks in your classes with tickets written under the conditions 
mentioned.  That doesn't give you ANY concept of how many speeders 
under those conditions get ticketed, vs. how many speeders get 
ticketed for the same speeds, same roads, in more crowded conditions.  
I didn't say "none", I said "very few".  Being out on the road and 
using your eyes DOES tell you.  It isn't anything like a complete 
statistical sample, but at least it's an indication of their actual 
behavior, vs. what they tell you they do. 

>>> but the posted limit of 55 lets them easily,
>>without an argument, write you up for 65 or even 60 when you are
>>obviously unsafe at that speed (due to heavy traffic, rain, whatever).
>>The trouble is that the posted limit of 55 also lets them write you
>>for doing 57 under conditions that are safe for 70. 
> 
> Never happens. Been teaching for 8 years. Never heard of in class,
> or on the air, anyone getting 57 in a 55 unless they were doing somthing
> else VERY stupid.

I exaggerate for effect.  (There are places where it DOES happen.) 
However the fact is that you *may* be cited for one or even two mph
over the limit.  Heck, I heard an interview with a CHP public affairs
officer soon after "55" went in, and he said that policy was that they
*must* cite you, no discretion, for 58 and over.  That's the official
policy that he'd admit to.  Obviously their actual behavior at the 
time was different, because even then you frequently saw them pacing 
clumps of cars at 60-65.  

> Jaime....look, you are an intelligent and articulate advocate
> for your position.  But you make the human mistake in
> believing that because YOU do this or that, that this
> is the basis for other's behavior.  

No, I'm noting that my behavior is similar to that observed by T&W.  
You keep claiming that one of T&W's conclusion (that people will not 
automatically drive 10-15 mph over ANY posted limit) is invalid, but 
that conclusion was drawn from actual measurement of what people do;
you've yet to offer anything besides hearsay of what people SAY they 
do as a counterargument.  

> By the way.....what IS a Kernel Mode?  Popping Corn?

It's the privileged mode of a protected operating system, vs. user 
mode.  Intel calls them Ring 0 and Ring 3 respectively.  The "drivers" 
in my .signature below does not refer to cars. :-)

(Anyone who pipes up with "One Ring to bind them all..." will be
condemned to a hell with 500 tv channels, each running a different
episode of the old 50's drama, "Highway Patrol".) 

	--- Jamie Hanrahan, Kernel Mode Systems, San Diego CA
drivers, internals, networks, applications, and training for VMS and Windows NT
Internet: jeh@cmkrnl.com (JH645)  CompuServe: 74140,2055  
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