I. Team History/Needs
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The Sonics missed the playoffs this season for the first
time in 9 years. They made sweeping personnel changes (Gone were coach George Karl, Sam
Perkins, Nate McMillan, Jerome Kersey, Greg Anthony, Jim McIlvaine and David Wingate,
replaced by Paul Westphal, Olden Polynice, Billy Owens, Don MacLean, Jelani McCoy,
Vladimir Stepania, Rashard Lewis, and three different backup point guards). But while the
number of changes, the move from aged veterans to raw rookies, and the short training camp
hurt the Sonics, their hopes this season were really sunk by the disappearing act that Vin
Baker pulled. He came into camp horribly out of shape, began the season with a
record-setting streak of missed free-throws, and then hurt himself. Without his post
presence, the Sonics struggled mightily all season, and despite a career year for Gary
Payton and Detlef Schrempf rebounding from a slow start to have another strong season, the
Sonics came up a win short of the playoffs and found themselves in the lottery. As if to
put an exclamation point on their bad fortunes, the Hornets, the only team in the draft
with a worse chance of winning a top-3 pick, leapfrogged to the #3 spot and left the
Sonics with the last lottery pick. |
Players
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Point Guard
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Payton isn't going anywhere. Rumors swirled after Payton
lashed out at management and the press, but Gary has made it pretty clear that he hasn't
demanded a trade, though another season like 99 and he might do so next Summer. For the
time being, the Sonics are set with arguably the best point in the game. GP is the
complete package - he can beat you defensively, take you off the dribble, or set up a
teammate. Payton posted a career-high in assists per game this year despite his teammates'
poor shooting. He has four years left on his current contract, and is in the prime of his
career. But Gary needs a better backup. The Sonics lost Greg Anthony because they couldn't
afford to pay him as much as Portland offered, and they weren't able to successfully
replace him. They tried Moochie Norris out of the CBA, Drew Barry, and John Crotty at the
position. Crotty was acceptable, but nothing to get excited about. While Gary isn't
interested in moving to shooting guard full time (nor would that be a good idea), he does
play some minutes at that position, making backup point even more important. |
Shooting Guard
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This has actually become the Sonics most glaring
weakness. Hersey Hawkins and Dale Ellis both suffered drop-offs in their shooting and
scoring this season, and given their ages, it's unlikely they'll be able to rebound.
Hawkins brings much more than scoring to the table, as he's an excellent defender, a quiet
leader, and a competent ball-handler and passer. Ellis brings nothing but shooting, and
while he still has a sweet stroke, his already-limited defense is only going to worsen as
he reaches the big 4-0. James Cotton will be back next season, but as he's failed to crack
the rotation in either of his first two years in the league, it's unlikely he'll make any
real contribution next season. |
Small Forward
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Detlef Schrempf had an awful start to last season, but
he really stepped up after Vin Baker was lost to injury. He ended up having a great year
for any small forward, let alone one who is 34. Detlef is a free-agent, though, and given
his age and salary, he could be a casualty of the Sonics' desire to bring in a younger
free-agent. If Detlef does return, he'll likely have to take a bit less money (at least
temporarily) to do so. Billy Owens was a major disappointment this season, spending most
of it on the IR, and never finding a niche on the team when he was playing. Coming into
camp out of shape didn't help. Owens could find himself part of a trade this Summer. He
certainly doesn't appear to be a solid replacement for Schrempf. The only other true small
forward for the Sonics is young Rashard Lewis, drafted out of high school last year.
Westphal is high on Lewis, and he showed hints of great potential during a few games. He
may win a spot on the bench as the 10th man in the rotation, but it's more likely he'll
have another year of playing spot minutes and garbage time. |
Power Forward
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It's rare that a star of Vin Baker's magnitude falls as
far and as fast as Vin did this season. He was selected to the All-NBA 2nd Team for 97-98,
and in 99 he probably wouldn't have made the 22nd team if there was one. There's reason
for hope that he'll return to form, though. For one, he won't be anywhere near as out of
shape in October as he was in February. Aside from knowing that there will indeed be a
season, he'll have the Olympic qualifying tournament this Summer, plenty of motivation,
and a full training camp. And Vin has been pretty healthy for most of his career until
this season, so his injuries aren't likely to be a recurring problem. Vin did look like he
was back in the 20 point, 8 rebound form he showed last season after he returned from his
first injury, but it was only a few games before he was back on the IR for most of the
remainder of the season. When he's on his game, Vin is one of the best power forwards in
the league. While he's not as aggressive and strong on the boards as one would wish, he is
one of the best low-post scorers in the game, and is a fine defender as well. On the bench
the Sonics currently have Don Maclean, who came on strong in the last month of the season
and showed the league that he could still fill it up when he's healthy. MacLean is likely
to be traded, if possible, as there's no real need for him on this team when Vin is
healthy, and he's a poor defender with a history of injury problems. |
Center
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Give Wally Walker credit for unloading Jim McIlvaine. He
should never have signed him in the first place, but realizing his mistake and dumping
that contract was a great move. Olden Polynice was signed to an NBA minimum contract to
fill the void, and he actually did an admirable job. He rebounded like a mad man, played
fine defense, and scored the odd point or two. Initially it seemed like his enthusiasm was
a good thing, but it wasn't long before his gesticulations became simply antics, and the
Sonics have made it pretty clear that he won't be back next year. In his place the Sonics
will go with youth. Vladimir Stepania and Jelani McCoy, both drafted last year, showed
wonderful promise this season, and they figure to share most of the minutes at center next
season and hopefully long after that. McCoy is an incredible shot-blocker with great
athleticism, energy, and a good nose for the ball. There were major questions about his
character and his head at the time of the draft last year, but he didn't show a trace of
being a problem in his rookie season. Stepania needs to bulk up a bit, and learn more of
the NBA game, but he looks like he could blossom into a top-notch center or power forward.
He has incredible foot-speed for a big man, and a beautiful touch with the ball. With the
center talent in this year's draft being so thin, the Sonics are very fortunate to have
two promising young big men on the roster. |
Recent Draft History
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- 1998
- 27. Vladimir Stepania
- 32. Rashard Lewis
- 33. Jelani McCoy
- 1997
- 23. Bobby Jackson (traded to Denver for Cotton and a 98
2nd-round pick)
- 33. James Cotton
- 1996
- (3 2nd-round picks, none of whom have played in the NBA)
- 1995
- 26. Sherell Ford
- 54. Zydrunas Ilguaskas (traded to Milwakuee with a
2nd-round pick for Eric Snow
- 1994
- 11. Carlos Rogers (traded to Golden State)
- 1995
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II. My Selection
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William Avery, PG, Duke The Sonics figure to improve at shooting guard, small forward, or
both through free-agency and/or trades this Summer. But they can fill their need for a
backup point guard in the draft. Avery is easily the best point guard remaining, and
should be able to contribute 15 decent minutes a game in his rookie season. His perimeter
shooting will be a great help, as the Sonics haven't had that aspect in a backup point
guard since Nate McMillan was last healthy. Avery is also a competent distributor and his
mix of passing and perimeter shooting skills are exactly what the Sonics need off the
bench. Avery's weakness in driving and finishing should be minimized in the Sonic offense.
And if he can learn from Gary Payton, Avery could well develop into a top-notch point
guard who can either step into the starting role at some point in the future, or be traded
for a player to fill a bigger need. |
III. Other Players I Considered
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If either Miller or Terry had
fallen to #13, they would have been chosen ahead of Avery. Ron Artest is the kind of
multi-talented player that could fit nicely into the backcourt with Payton, and I believe
he's going to be a fine 6th-man in the NBA. I can't see him starting for the Sonics at any
point, though, and when if the Sonics are going to draft somebody for the bench, they'll
be better off taking a point guard. If Jumaine Jones had slipped to
#13, I probably would have taken him, as he has better starting potential, and could be a
replacement for Detlef Schrempf at small forward. |
IV. Who the team will probably take
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This year there seems to be more talk of trading draft
picks than ever, and the Sonics stand as good a chance as any team of being involved in
such a deal. In addition to players like Terry, Jones, Avery, and Artest that figure to be
taken around Seattle's pick, the Sonics have worked out players that figure to go late in
the first round, or in the 2nd, and have also worked out some top prospects like Steve
Francis and Elton Brand. And it's entirely possible that they could deal the pick away
entirely and not have a draft pick at all. The odds are still good that they will draft
with their own pick, though, in which case they will likely take a point guard. William
Avery is the logical choice. I've seen quite a few mock drafts that have Avery going to
Seattle, and it almost seems like a done deal. If none of the good points are available,
they will likely fall back to a "best player available" stance and take whoever
slips, with Artest and Jones being the most likely candidates. |
V. Other offseason moves
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The Sonics are in a position of great flexibility this
Summer. They have Vin Baker and Detlef Schrempf as key free-agents, and
depending on what they do with them, they could have anywhere from 8 or 9 million dollars
in cap room to no space at all. The odds are very good that they will re-sign Baker to a
huge contract, despite his awful season. That will leave them with a decision between
re-signing Detlef Schrempf, and having the 2-million and 1-million dollar exemptions to
use, letting Schrempf walk and having somewhere around 3 million in cap room, or possibly
trading Detlef in a sign-and-trade deal. They could free up a little more cap space if a
team were willing to take MacLean or Owens in trade for a draft pick. The Hawks might be a
good option there, as they have a trade exemption from the Laettner trade, and have a late
first-round pick to spare. Most likely, the Sonics will seek to make a trade using a
combination of Don MacLean, Billy Owens, Hersey
Hawkins, and their draft pick, with the goal being to bring
in a veteran shooting guard or swing-man. They also may go after an additional big man,
and if they don't fill their backup point guard position through the draft, they'll try
and pick one up through free-agency, possibly settling for bringing John Crotty back. It
promises to be a very interesting Summer for the Sonics, who are trying to balance their
need to get younger and find long-term replacements at two positions without completely
giving up hope of winning a championship while Gary Payton is still in his prime. Seattle
could be in a position to go after one of the bigger names available this Summer - Mitch
Richmond is a close friend of Gary Payton's - or could just as easily have only the
exemptions to use to patch holes. |
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