Team History/Needs
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The Grizzlies have seemed to do little more than lose in their four seasons in the
league. But the '99 season was especially painful because the Grizzlies took a large step
back in the win column when they were expected to improve. They drafted a very promising
young point guard in Mike Bibby
to replace Antonio Daniels. The
chemistry of the team was the best it had ever been. Shareef
Abdur-Rahim was signed to a long-term deal. Things were
looking bright. But when training camp started the first bad signs appeared. Bryant "Big Country" Reeves showed
up 40 pounds overweight. Lee Mayberry was suffering from a nagging ankle injury and had to have surgery. Doug West had a nagging hamstring injury that
limited his effectiveness. The compact season allowed for no practice time for one of the
youngest teams in the league. Then things went from bad to worse. Just as Reeves was
getting into game shape he injured his knee and had to have season-ending surgery. Lee
Mayberry began suffering from tendinitis in both knees and couldn't return. Doug West
injured a toe that required season ending surgery. Now perhaps you are saying to yourself,
"Ok I can see the loss of Reeves impacting the Grizzlies low post game, but how does
the loss of Mayberry and West make a difference?" Essentially this, Brian Hill was forced to start two rookies in
the backcourt on an already young team. The lack of veteran leadership made it far more
difficult for the Grizzlies to put away close games. In fact they lost 14 games by 5 or
fewer points during the lockout shortened season. All these things added up to an
inevitably bad season. Surprisingly despite this the Grizzlies still played hard, and came
very close to beating some very good teams. But they lacked the depth and the experience
to close out. The Grizzlies have a lot of
weaknesses. They could use an enforcer at power forward. Someone solid and intimidating
defensively who can rebound, block shots and shut his defensive assignment down. They also
need more scoring, especially from the shooting guard spot. Felipe
Lopez was a pleasant surprise, but he didn't have a
consistent jumper. Basically the Grizzlies need more depth. The bench rarely brought many
points to their games. Those few occasions they did were the few times the Grizzlies won.
With the undersized Elton Brand being the only power forward in the draft likely to be
drafted in the top 7, the Grizzlies are more likely to look at drafting a shooting guard.
There is also a lot of pressure on Stu Jackson to trade the pick for a veteran. That
pressure is something I hope Stu does not give into, because I suspect there is little
other teams are willing to offer that would truly match the value of the Grizzlies' pick.
That said, if a fantastic deal comes along Stu should go for it.
Past First Round Picks |
1995 Bryant Reeves (5th pick) |
1996 Shareef Abdur-Rahim (3rd pick) |
1996 Roy Rodgers (22nd pick) |
1997 Antonio Daniels (4th pick) |
1998 Mike Bibby (2nd pick) |
1998 Felipe Lopez (24th pick) |
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Players/Coaching/Management
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Point Guard
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Mike Bibby had a solid if
unspectacular rookie season. Mike was clearly a vast improvement over Antonio Daniels
despite being three years younger. Unfortunately, Mike's season went largely unnoticed,
partly because Jason Williams attracted the lion's share of attention with his fancy
passing, and also because the Grizzlies could not win. Mike started slow and he took a few
weeks to adjust his shooting to the NBA level. He has a beautiful mid-range jumper and
plans to work on a better 3-point shot during the off-season. As a playmaker Bibby showed
flashes of brilliance. His greatest difficulty wasn't in making a play, but in seeing it
bounce of the hands or chests of team-mates unprepared for a pass. On the bench Mayberry
spent almost all the season injured. The team missed his veteran experience. Dejuan Wheat filled in most of the bench
minutes at point guard. Unfortunately, Wheat had great difficulty running the offense and
was rarely a positive factor for the Grizzlies. |
Shooting Guard
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Sam Mack was projected to
be the starter, and initially he started very strong actually leading the Grizzlies in
points. But his production gradually began to tail off as teams played him for the 3 point
shot. Not effective creating his own shot, nor much of a defender Mack refused to come off
the bench in a role he was more suited to. By mid-season he was traded to the Rockets for Rhoderick Rhodes. Doug West would have been
Mack's replacement as starter if he had been healthy. A nagging hamstring injury limited
West initially, and then a toe injury that required surgery ended his season. That left Felipe Lopez as the starter, and he did an
adequate job. A good defender and excellent slasher Felipe turned out to be better than
the Grizzlies had hoped for of the 24th pick in the draft. Unfortunately, Felipe lacked
the outside shot the Grizzlies needed in their shooting guard. |
Small Forward
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The 4th leading scorer in the NBA, Shareef Abdur-Rahim produced despite facing
constant double and triple teams whenever he had the ball in his hands. But the
inexperience of the few talented Grizzlies, and the complete lack of team depth prevented
Shareef from really shining in his role. The absence of Bryant Reeves clearly hurt Reef's
performance, forcing him to shoulder the offensive load. This resulted in him turning the
ball over more frequently as defenses collapsed on him. That said, there are a number of
areas Reef clearly needs to improve. The first and most important is defense. While Reef
did get better defensively this season, he was still too lackadaisical. His passing also
could stand significant improvement, especially on inbounds plays and out of double-teams.
Finally, a more varied offensive repertoire would also help, including more mid-range
jumpers and a fade-away move. But in all fairness Reef is a spectacular player who
probably won't get any recognition until the Grizzlies drag themselves out of the basement
of the NBA. J.R. Henderson
gradually got more minutes as Reef's back-up as the season went on. But in the little
playing time he got Henderson did not have much of an impact. |
Power Forward
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Talk about a dog's breakfast. The starter for most of
the season was Cherokee Parks,
the major free agent signing Stu Jackson made after the lockout. If Cherokee put on 20
pounds of muscle and played aggressively he could be a good player. But right now he's too
thin and too laid back. Cherokee has a decent mid-range jumper, but he often doesn't use
it even when he's open. The few times he does shoot he regularly hesitates and throws off
his shot. The last few games of the season Chief actually showed some jump with aggressive
play and solid rebounding, but it was too little too late. If Parks puts his mind to it he
could be starter level material, but he's far from that right now. Michael Smith came off the bench for the
Grizzlies and provided them with a fearless rebounding spark. Now if only he was 4 inches
taller and could block shots he'd be the perfect power forward for the team. Smith seems
to have endless energy when he's on the floor. He is the best per minute rebounder on the
team. But he has no offensive game, at times even having difficulty making lay-ups. And
despite being listed at 6'8" he's much closer to 6'6", making him continually
undersized against most power forwards in the league. Pete
Chilcutt also saw some spot minutes, but he was unable to
consistently make shots from the perimeter, which is supposed to be his specialty. |
Center
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Bryant "Big Country Reeves came to camp close to 40 pounds overweight. Initially Country came off
the bench, replaced by Tony Massenburg in the starting line-up. While Country's lack of conditioning was
appalling for a player averaging 10 million per year he did work very hard to get back
into shape. Unfortunately, he worked a little too hard and ended up injuring his knee
which required season ending surgery. Had Country been able to play up to his potential
the Grizzlies would have had a legitimate low post scoring threat to compliment Shareef.
But with Country out the Grizzlies had to rely on Tony Massenburg. T-Mass performed
admirably in Country's absence, scoring against players much taller than himself, but he
did not have the size to operate as effectively as Country, nor did he draw double-teams
like Country did. The back-up center situation was a mish-mash of the power forwards, with
Cherokee Parks, and Pete Chilcutt seeing most of the back-up minutes. |
Coach
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Brian Hill won't win any
awards for the '99 season but, when you see the complete lack of depth and the amount of
inexperience he had to work with, it is actually amazing that Hill kept the Grizzlies as
competitive as they were in so many games. A rookie backcourt and two bench players were
the only help for Shareef Abdur-Rahim in the starting line-up. And the actual bench
provided almost no offense. Hill managed to cobble together a team that almost beat a
number of the top teams in the league. Given a healthy team and at least one more solid
addition from the draft or trade, I have no doubt Hill will be able to at least double the
Grizzlies win Percentage (although that's still only 0.32 ball). |
President and General Manager
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Stu Jackson received a lot
of heat in the press as the season wound down. A large part of the bad press undoubtedly
came about because the Grizzlies' expansion cousins the Toronto Raptors had an
unexpectedly good season, even contending for the 8th seed in the eastern conference. The
other factor was Bryant Reeves and his huge contract that matched his huge girth when he
came to training camp. Jackson signed Reeves to the contract, and it is widely believed in
most of the media that Reeves is overpaid. While I agree that Stu Jackson's performance as
GM of the Grizzlies is not ideal, I also cannot fault most of his decisions without the
benefit of hindsight. The only exceptions may be the drafting of Antonio Daniels when Ron
Mercer was available, and the trade for Otis Thorpe when Thorpe made it very clear he did
not want to come to Vancouver (and later became utter poison in the lockeroom). Signing
Reeves to a large contract was not a mistake. If Jackson had not signed Reeves, then
Shareef would probably not have stayed either. There is currently a lot of pressure on
Jackson to trade the Grizzlies pick for a veteran. I hope Jackson does not give in to that
pressure for a quick fix, because I doubt he will be able to get fair value in return for
the pick. Hopefully, Jackson will stay the course and continue to add through the draft,
gambling that the pick will develop into a franchise player, and that all the cornerstone
players for the Grizzlies will be healthy and play well next season. |
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My Selection
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Steve Francis.
Had Lamar Odom been available I would have selected him
over Francis, because Odom has a more complete package of skills and expressed a desire to
play for the Grizzlies. That said, Francis is still a good pick. Francis can play either
backcourt position, and while he's a little undersized for shooting guard he makes up for
it with his incredible athleticism. Francis has a scorers mentality and he can make
spectacular plays. He would not only add points to the Grizzlies offense, but a lot of
excitement as well. He would form a Snow/Iverson-like tandem in the backcourt with Mike
Bibby. The only concerns were the Grizzlies to keep Francis, would be his susceptibility
to being posted-up by the bigger guards in the NBA. But making Francis their pick, the
Grizzlies wouldn't necessarily have to keep him. They could trade him for some combination
of lower picks and veteran players. The Toronto Raptors in particular have apparently
expressed a lot of interest in acquiring Francis. |
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Other players I considered
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Lamar Odom: If
Chicago had passed on him I would have picked him. Corey
Maggette: huge potential, but would likely start slow Elton
Brand: probably a little undersized for the Grizzlies Richard Hamilton: may have the greatest impact of all
the rookies, but he's on the thin side and may be a little too frail for the NBA. |
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Who the team will probably take
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If the Bulls pass on Odom the Grizzlies will draft him
and probably keep him. If the Bulls are smart and take Odom, then things get a little more
iffy. I suspect the outcome will depend much more on how prospects performed during
workouts. My hunch is that the Grizzlies will likely take Steve Francis and either trade
him for a veteran, or trade down for more picks. Francis is a safe bet, because even if he
isn't traded the Grizzlies have the option of playing him at shooting guard. If the
Grizzlies trade for a veteran it will most likely involve getting a power forward. Names
that have been mentioned in the press are PJ Brown and Antonio Davis. However, the 2nd
pick for either of these players is a rather steep price to pay. If the Grizzlies trade
down the most likely candidates are Toronto or Cleveland. Who they take with lower picks
will be largely dependent on who is left when they pick. I would guess Brand, Maggette,
and Hamilton are particularly high on the Grizzlies' list. |
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Other possible off-season moves
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The Grizzlies could really use some seasoned veterans,
especially vets with playoff experience. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies will have no cap
room to play with, instead having to rely on the 2 and 1 million dollar exceptions. Really
the only vets available in this price range are cast-offs or old guys who would have
retired if the NBA wasn't so starved for talent. In my opinion a crusty old-timer would be
the best bet, ideally a wily point guard still able to perform in limited minutes, or a
solid power forward who knows all the cheap-shot tricks in the paint that get missed by
the refs. The two top candidates on my list are Terry Porter and Terry Cummings. Both
would be useful in limited minutes. Porter has indicated he will opt out of his remaining
year at 1 million with the Heat. Porter has said he wants to win a championship, and there
is no hope of that with the Grizzlies over the next few seasons. But if Stu Jackson maxes
out the 2 million exception for Porter over three years (2 million to start with 15%
increases each year) he should be able to get him. There is some risk in this as Porter
would be 39 at the end of the contract and his productivity could drop off significantly.
But if he can maintain the level of play he showed with the Heat in the playoffs in
limited minutes off the bench, then he would add significant depth to the Grizzlies. He
would also provide Bibby with a veteran presence to support him during the tougher parts
of the season. Terry Cummings on the other hand would be the 3rd power forward in the
rotation after Parks and Smith. But he would be particularly useful in spot minutes off
the bench during close games when the Grizzlies look like they're losing focus. I don't
think Cummings would come to the Grizzlies for only the 1 million exception, and I would
only give him the 2 million exception if Porter was unavailable. Beyond those two I don't
really think the Grizzlies have a shot at many other useful vets. There is a remote
possibility someone my fall through the cracks as other teams are capped out and use up
their exceptions. But even then the Grizzlies will have a hard time getting anyone to come
to Vancouver. That will only change if the Grizzlies can manage to start winning. When
that will happen is anyone's guess. |
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