II. Positional/Player Analysis
Center
Mengke Bateer 6-11 290 26 years old, China
Bateer was the second Chinese player to move to the NBA. This happened quietly and without much fanfair. The native of Outer Mongolia was on an NBA minimum contract and was played sparingly during the year, averaging only 15 minutes in 27 games. Bateer is absolutely immense, which has caused him problems in the thin air of Denver. He simply does not have the stamina to play a full game at that elevation with his current size. Bateer did, however, show some signs that he has some skill and the tools to be an everyday NBA player. He showed a nice shooting touch, noted by his 78% FT average and 33% three point shot (albeit only 12 attempts). His overall 40% shooting however shows that he is lacking significant polish to play in the paint. His 5 blocks in almost 400 minutes is also disturbing, but generally can be explained because he cannot jump very high carrying 290 pounds with him.
Bateer has the ability to become a solid NBA backup and perhaps even a serviceable NBA center. If Denver takes
the initiative to bring him back, work on his low post game and perhaps find a way to strip 20 pounds off of him, my gut feeling is they will have a decent NBA center on their hands. Given the lack of good centers in the league, this should be made a priority.
Zendon Hamilton 6-11 250 27 years old St John's
Zendon Hamilton was another minimum salary player Denver used at center when LaFrentz was traded. Managing only 15 minutes a game, he showed he could rebound and score a little. At best, unfortunately, he will be a career NBA backup. Denver should resign him just for the warm body.
Chris Andersen 6-10 220 23 years old Blinn Coll. TX (JC)
Chris Anderson was brought in last year to add a bit of depth to the center and forward position. He ended the year on the injury list, but has shown that he has some potential, although it would be better used at the PF position than the center position. He did manage to average over 3 boards in only 10 minutes of play while adding just over a block a game and 79% from the charity stripe. Unfortunately he was a poor shooter overall with no other skills to talk of. Anderson was on a minimum NBA contract and may be brought back depending on who else gets signed. If he does return, he will be lucky to get even 10 minutes a game with McDyess supposedly healthy.
Analysis - Raef Lafrentz never looked like a better center in Denver until he was traded. Denver is extremely weak at center and will find themselves full of problems against many of the bigger western teams. While their corps of centers are young, there seems to be limited upside to any of them. Bateer is probably the best prospect at this time, but he needs to slim down and learn more of the NBA game, something that will take time. I also expect to see McDyess possibly sliding over to play some center with Howard at PF, but this will only work against smaller opposition lineups. Definitely getting a center prospect in the draft is high on my mind. Unfortunately, you generally need a top 3 pick in the right draft to grab a good center prospect and Denver is not in that position. The draft choices I would consider at this position are Ming and Borchardt for the number 5 pick. At 25 I would hope to find Chris Marcus on the board.
PF
Donnell Harvey 6-8 220 21 years old Florida
Donnell Harvery has come out of college with the label of "a possible Rodman or Jerome Williams type player". He still has two years left on his rookie contract at a decent price. Harvey has been a steady player despite getting limited minutes. He averaged 18 minutes per game last year, pulling in 5 boards and shooting 50% from the field. He has room to improve his game, is still young and has upside. Therefore I believe Denver should keep him and continue to work with him for the length of his contract (next year). Hopefully he starts to break out soon and show some flashes of being a steady NBA power forward.
Antonio McDyess 6-9 245 27 years old Alabama
Two years ago McDyess looked like he had finally broken out into the all-NBA player that had been predicted for him for years. Since then his career has mirrored the fortunes of his team and his career has gone into a tailspin. Two years ago his numbers plummeted for no really good reason and last year was an injury plagued affair that turned into a nightmare for McDyess and Denver. For Denver to have any hope of winning 20 games this year they need McDyess to come back and play strong. He is the one player in the Denver lineup that can be tough to contain night in and out.
McDyess himself has some choices to make. Too often I have seen him play soft and uncaring. This does not mean he was not trying, but he seemed separated from his surroundings, almost distant. McDyess needs to get his head in the game and become a leader. McDyess's contract is also up at the end of next year and the team needs to start negotiations with him as soon as they are allowed. He is simply too good a player who will be gobbled up on the open market to let get away. Barring that, perhaps it is time to trade him for a good cheap prospect and take a chance on the free agent market with the massive cap room that would be available.
The following quote from McDyess sums up his feelings towards the team "The Nuggets have to show me a lot more than what we've been doing," McDyess said. "I've been here for four years, going on my fifth, and it just seems like nothing has got better yet. It seems like we've been taking a step back rather than a step forward." That does not sound like someone who plans on hanging around. In fact, I would not be surprised if Denver actively shopped him this year and I'm sure Vandeweghe does not want this kind of influence on his team. Choosing the right coach may convince him to stay, but at this point Denver risks losing him without getting anything in return, and as history has shown they are quite willing too trade away a good player in this situation.
Scott Williams 6-10 245 34 years old North Carolina
After 8 years on a very nice contract (at the time) Scott Williams is a free agent. It is hard to see Denver bringing him back. He has been too injury prone over the last 10 years to be counted on. The fact that he managed 41 games last year seems impossible given his injuries, although he could only drag himself out for 18 minutes a game. As usually, he played solid D and provided great rebounding, but Denver would be better off giving the minutes to one of their younger players.
Analysis : Denver will have to depend on McDyess coming back healthy. The team has so many holes at this time it would not make any sense to start the "what if's" about McDyess health or contract status. Harvey can provide the backup with Howard sliding over as well. This position would not be the one I'd be looking to fill at the draft table, but at the same time it cannot be totally ignored due to the contract status of Howard and McDyess. The draft choices I would consider at this position are Gooden and Wilcox. Drafting at 25, I would hope to see Boozer available.
SF
Ryan Bowen 6-9 227 26 Iowa
Ryan Bowen is a nice backup SF/PF in the NBA. Any team playing him in major minutes has problems, but overall he can fit in inconspicuously and add value. Boyen is not a scorer, but also will not take a bad shot. This showed by the fact he shot 48% from the field and 75% from the line. Scoring 5 ppg in 22 minutes is not very good, however. Where Bowen makes up for this is his tenacity and defense. Bowen knows his place on the floor, and plays it hard. Bowen has a player option for about 700K this year. Whether he takes it or not is yet to be seen, but I suspect he would like to stay in Denver and may try to negotiate a longer term deal.
Calbert Cheaney 6-7 217 30 Indiana
Calbert Chaney never became the NBA player many thought he was capable of being. At 30 years of age we have seen everything from Chaney that we will ever see. He is at best mediocre in all phases of the game. With
Denver's glut of forwards, it is time for Chaney to move on as he is an unrestricted free agent. If he was willing to take a pay cut I can see Denver resigning him, but there is no reason to believe he fits into their long term plans.
Juwan Howard 6-9 250 29 Michigan
Once considered untradable because of his contract, Howard now has significant value to Denver. While he will eat up an astounding 20M of salary cap space this year, he is in the last year of his contract and gives Denver significant
maneuverability in terms of trade value and free agent cap space for next year.
For all his negatives, however, Howard is still a fine NBA player. He will never play up to his 95-96 season which is unfortunate as that season from him was an absolute pleasure to watch. He still possesses some great all round skills and teaming with McDyess he may very well put up 18 points and 8 boards. As it will be a contract year for Howard it would not be surprising to see him have his best year since 96.
George McCloud 6-8 225 35 Florida State
George still has one year left on his contract, which will likely be his last meaningful contract in the NBA. At 35 he is on the downside of his career. Last year was one of his worst in recent memory as he shot just 36% from the field and 27% from the three point. McCloud always was a shooter and not much else. With his shooting deserting him, it is time to hang them up.
Analysis : Denver is set at the SF position. Howard is not a prototypical SF, but Posey puts in solid minutes here when Howard sits. McCloud will still provide some shooting and if Bowen comes back, this will be the deepest position on the floor. It would be nice to see a true SF put here (Butler), but unless a blue chip prospect is available in the draft, I will not be looking to draft a SF first. At the 5 position I certainly will consider Tskitishvili and Butler. At the 25 pick I would hope to find Grizzard or Jeffries available.
SG
Voshon Lenard 6-4 205 29 Minnesota
Voshon Lenard is a free agent this year and the chances of him being brought back are good. Lenard can flat out shoot the ball, as shown by his 37% 3pt FG%. As long as he is willing to play for about 1.5 million, he is a decent addition to any team. Voshon has never been much of a defensive player, nor a rebounder, passer or slasher. He just camps out at the three point line for the easy shot. That adds little value, but on a tem with such a lack of talent, he is still a useful addition.
James Posey 6-8 215 25 Xavier (Ohio)
James Posey has had an up and down time in Denver, but has been a very serviceable SG/SF for Denver. His defensive play has helped out in the west where there are a lot of good shooting guards, and his ability to rebound has helped take the pressure of the big men. The real knock on Posey is that he has been too passive, especially at the offensive end of the floor. Denver has a team option on Posey for about 1.6M this year and they will take it. This is also Posey's contract year and it is likely he may become more assertive to help cement a good second contract.
Analysis : Denver could really use a true scorer at SG, one who can hit the shot and take it to the hoop. Posey currently is the only SG signed, and he is more of a SF than a SG. A player at this position will be highly sought after by me at the draft table. Unfortunately
Dunleavy, who appears to be the best fit, will probably not fall this far and this draft lacks sure fire shooting guards after him. Certainly with the 5 pick I will look at
Dunleavy and Woods and perhaps Mason with the 25 pick.
PG
Carlos Arroyo 6-2 202 22 Florida International
Carlos Arroyo was a NBA minimum salary player this year that had trouble sticking with the team. Denver always said they wanted to keep him around, but he always seemed to be in danger of being the first to go when someone came back from injury. While Arroyo was well liked, the fact is he did not score a lot nor show that he could be exceptional at distributing the ball. The chances of him being back next year do not look good at this time.
Tim Hardaway 6-0 195 35 Texas-El Paso
Tim Hardaway came over from Denver in the Howard trade and promptly broke his foot, showing why his star has fallen so far. His only saving grace at this time is that his salary, at 4 million, is not too high for a player of his former stature. Denver has a buyout clause for 1M dollars and I believe they will take it depending on whom they can find to replace Hardaway. He is still far and away their best PG and to try and head into the season without a blue chip PG prospect or a proven veteran will prove very problematic in the west.
Kenny Satterfield 6-2 180 21 Cincinnati
Satterfield is really more of a SG than a PG, but PG will be where he has to play in the pros. He did try and convert last year and did a fine enough job when given a chance, but when the crunch set in (last 6 seconds of the shot clock) he still looked like a SG. Satterfield played only about half the year averaging 15 minutes a game. He pulled in 6 points and 3 assists while shooting 37% from the floor. He played for the minimum last year, and if he comes back to Denver, it will likely be for the minimum again.
Analysis : Denver could really use a PG. I will definitely be looking for a PG at the draft, but IMO one will be available at the #25 pick which may workout. At the number 5 pick Williams will not be available, yet Wagner may be too risky that high. Definitely Willaims and Wagner will be considered with the 5 pick, and Maddox, Frank Williams, Taylor and Dickau will get consideration with the 25 pick.
Quick Synopsis of player contracts :
Denver Nuggets Date # of total
Player signed years salary misc FA
Chris Andersen ........ 11/21/01 1 minimum '02
Carlos Arroyo ......... 3/7/02 1 minimum '02
Ryan Bowen ............ 8/1/00 3 $1.9 million p-opt '02
Calbert Cheaney ....... 8/5/99 3 $6.6 million '02
Zendon Hamilton ....... 8/2/01 1 minimum '02
Voshon Lenard ......... 7/1/97 5 $11.5 million '02
Mengke Bateer ......... 2/26/02 1 minimum '02
Kenny Satterfield ..... 8/2/01 1 minimum '02
Scott Williams ........ 7/28/94 7+1 $18 million+$4.65 million '02
Juwan Howard .......... 8/5/96 7 $105 million '03
George McCloud ........ 8/3/99 4 $9.2 million '03
Antonio McDyess ....... 1/22/99 6 $67.5 million p-opt '03
James Posey ........... 7/19/99 4 $4,866,409 rc t-opt '03
Tim Hardaway .......... 8/22/01 3 $11.3 million t-opt '04
Donnell Harvey ........ 9/28/00 4 $4,413,866 rc t-opt '04
Player stats :
PLAYER G GS MPG PPG RPG APG OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO PF
Juwan Howard 81 72 32.5 14.6 7.6 2.1 223 389 612 169 46 47 152 265
Voshon Lenard 71 19 23.5 11.5 2.6 1.8 38 145 183 130 59 25 91 105
Antonio McDyess 10 10 23.6 11.3 5.5 1.8 18 37 55 18 10 8 20 20
James Posey 73 63 30.7 10.7 5.9 2.5 109 320 429 180 114 39 127 224
Tim Hardaway 68 16 23.5 9.6 1.8 4.1 14 110 124 278 57 10 111 109
Isaiah Rider 10 1 17.3 9.3 3.3 1.2 10 23 33 12 3 2 14 11
George McCloud 69 26 26.5 8.8 3.6 3.0 67 184 251 204 58 19 144 175
Calbert Cheaney 68 47 24.0 7.3 3.5 1.6 57 183 240 110 34 21 70 156
Zendon Hamilton 54 15 15.7 6.0 4.7 0.3 110 143 253 14 21 18 60 104
Donnell Harvey 47 4 17.9 5.7 4.8 0.8 80 147 227 37 21 24 33 115
Kenny Satterfield 36 4 15.6 5.3 1.4 3.0 17 35 52 108 31 1 53 43
Mengke Bateer 27 10 15.1 5.1 3.6 0.8 32 64 96 22 10 5 32 94
Scott Williams 41 16 18.0 4.9 5.1 0.3 82 127 209 13 17 33 35 98
Ryan Bowen 75 21 22.5 4.9 4.0 0.7 134 165 299 52 75 41 41 171
Shawnelle Scott 21 10 12.0 3.9 4.9 0.4 53 50 103 8 3 6 15 49
Chris Andersen 24 1 10.9 3.0 3.2 0.3 38 38 76 7 7 28 13 35
Carlos Arroyo 37 1 10.0 3.0 1.1 1.9 12 28 40 70 11 1 23 30
Field Goals 3-Point FG Free Throws
PLAYER M-A Pct M-A Pct M-A Pct Pts Hi
Juwan Howard 462-1005 .460 0-2 .000 261-343 .761 1185 36
Voshon Lenard 315-769 .410 89-240 .371 94-120 .783 813 29
Antonio McDyess 43-75 .573 0-0 --- 27-33 .818 113 19
James Posey 277-736 .376 67-237 .283 161-203 .793 782 33
Tim Hardaway 226-620 .365 123-354 .347 77-97 .794 652 22
Isaiah Rider 37-81 .457 6-15 .400 13-17 .765 93 28
George McCloud 206-576 .358 60-222 .270 132-163 .810 604 26
Calbert Cheaney 224-466 .481 0-4 .000 46-67 .687 494 22
Zendon Hamilton 103-245 .420 0-0 --- 118-181 .652 324 20
Donnell Harvey 108-217 .498 0-0 --- 54-90 .600 270 18
Kenny Satterfield 73-199 .367 7-27 .259 36-46 .783 189 21
Mengke Bateer 53-132 .402 4-12 .333 29-37 .784 139 12
Scott Williams 86-217 .396 0-2 .000 30-41 .732 202 16
Ryan Bowen 147-307 .479 1-12 .083 69-92 .750 364 18
Shawnelle Scott 37-75 .493 0-0 --- 8-20 .400 82 9
Chris Andersen 25-74 .338 0-4 .000 22-28 .786 72 17
Carlos Arroyo 49-111 .441 0-2 .000 13-18 .722 111 12
Notable Transactions :
Dallas Mavericks -- Acquired guards Nick Van Exel, Avery Johnson and Tariq Abdul-Wahad and
center Raef LaFrentz from the Denver Nuggets for forwards Juwan Howard and Donnell Harvey,
guard Tim Hardaway and a 2002 first-round pick.
This was the big trade of the year. I loved the trade because it got rid of a salary cap albatross in Abdul-Wahad and disgruntled players NVE and LaFrentz. In return Denver added Hardaway and Howard who will likely be gone as salary cap fodder soon.
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