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Grain Supply Update: Sept. 21, 1996



Grain Supply Update: Sept. 21, 1996
	     Fran and Frosts Nip Corn and Soybean Crops
			© Geri Guidetti, 1996

Following Hurricane Fran’s direct hit on the coasts of North and South 
Carolina, I suggested that you might want to watch for buried, "page 7 
stories" in the national press that might deal with the  storm’s impact 
on important agricultural crops.  Though I expected minimal coverage,  
very few newspapers and still fewer television reports even touched the 
topic.  Coverage focused, instead, on lost homes built on or near 
beaches, destroyed pleasure boats and beach erosion.  Yet, according to 
a spokesman for the state of North Carolina, crop losses were estimated 
at $1 billion.  This figure is credible when you realize that both North 
and South Carolina have extensive acreage in corn, soybeans, oats and 
wheat according to national agricultural statistics.  The fact that the 
corn and soybean crops in particular were at or  nearing harvest stage 
when they were damaged, further reinforces the magnitude of the loss 
estimate.

An e-mail correspondent quoted one North Carolina resident who had 
suffered  telephone, electric and personal losses as saying, "With all 
of our modern technology and sophistication, Fran and Mother Nature 
pushed us back to 400 BC in a matter of hours." Well, maybe not 400 BC, 
but certainly a whole lot less convenient than most of us are used to.  
More significant than our structural and other material losses, the 
storm’s greater take-home lesson should illustrate our virtual 
dependence for all of our food on large, complex production and delivery 
systems.  If they fail to deliver – for whatever reason –our food supply 
is in jeopardy. Sometimes this is hard to imagine in a country that has 
historically had so much.

Both the corn and soybean crops grown in these two states are very 
important to us this year.  According to a report presented at the 
Midwest Agricultural Outlook Conference by J. William Uhrig in August,  
remaining soybean supplies, dubbed ending stocks, are projected to be 
down to a mere four weeks supply before fall harvest.  Despite their 
historically high prices, global demand for  the bean that provides oil 
and food products for human consumption as well as protein meal for food 
animals, remains high.  This setback, as well as some soybean crop 
deterioration from early frosts in the Midwest this week, virtually 
assures higher prices for these products through 1997.  Prices will be 
the mechanism for reducing demand, thus conserving supplies. 

Likewise, efforts to restore our historically depleted corn carry-over 
stockpiles while simultaneously providing for our needs this year are 
increasingly challenged.  High prices have attracted greater global 
production, but weather extremes, now predicted by some climatologists 
to continue for another ten years,  have been humbling the optimists.  
Mature corn fields were knocked flat and flooded by Fran in North 
Carolina; they were lightly to moderately damaged by frost in parts of 
the Midwest.  To add insult to injury, heavy rains from another storm 
followed the hurricane in the Mid-Atlantic states, and North Carolina is 
having a tough time recovering.

We need a good spell of warm weather in the corn belt to bring those 
late-planted corn and bean crops in before a freeze.  At this point, 
every farmer’s field is important to this year’s national supplies.  
Looking ahead, next year may be a good time for you to consider growing 
more of your own food.  Global demand is increasing dramatically as 
Asian economies grow, increasing the amount of grain being used to feed 
meat animals and to produce milk and eggs. Global food production is 
leveling off and, for some crops, even dropping.  This year’s precarious 
harvests may bring that reality home to many countries. Hopefully, we 
will learn from it as well…Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
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