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Y2K - 16% of what?



I just thought I'd point something out.  The math in the Y2K forward was a
bit too simple.  Here's what was said . . .

>Here's the best example: the poll revealed that 16% plan to
>withdraw ALL their money from the bank. 31% plan to withdraw and
>set aside a "large amount" of cash.

>Banks currently owe depositors approximately $3.7 trillion.
>That's money the banking customers have deposited with the banks.
>The USA Today poll reveals that 16% of the customers plan to
>withdraw ALL their cash. 16% of 3.7 trillion is $592 billion.

Now, look at it closely.  "16% plan to withdraw ALL their money from the
bank" is not the same as "16% of the money in the banks will be withdrawn".
 To draw the conclusion presented, we'd have to know that that 16% was
evenly spread across the board.  We don't know that, so anything further is
guessing.   Perhaps the people making up the 16% are the poorest 16% of the
country, meaning very little money will be taken out (some poeple have only
a  few hundred dollars in the bank).  Perhaps they are the richest; in
which case, A LOT more than 16% would be taken out and BIG problems would
soon occur.  If they are in the middle, it still might not be $592 billion.
 16% of the population of the US (which is under 220 million, I believe) .
. . is less than 35.2 million people . . . divide $592 billion by that . .
. (click, click, click) . . . and it's over $16,000 per person.  Does the
average person have that much in the bank?  Does this include non-bank
investments?  I thought the average US citizen was $18,000 in debt (not
counting mortgages).

I'm not saying it ain't true, just saying the numbers are not all there to
draw that conclusion.  Other thoughts appreciated.

Eric: