IDEOLOGIC is a new way to understand voters developed by Melvin Hinich (U of Texas) and Michael Munger (U of North Carolina), the two leading theorists of voter modeling. The model's basic idea is that voters think of issues not as single items (as is assumed in all models of public opinion) but instead they think of them as clusters of issues. Thus, candidates can address an issue without ever specifically speaking about that issue, by raising a "surrogate" or "stalking-horse" issue from the same cluster. For example, George Bush might raise the race issue by speaking about crime in the streets, Bob Dole might raise the issue of welfare by talking about Hollywood's indescretions.
Advantages of IDEOLOGIC
See additional advantages to Enhanced IDEOLOGIC
Because IDEOLOGIC identifies factors instead of specific issues, it has four advantages over the standard models used in public opinion polling and standard campaign consulting:
- IDEOLOGIC is more accurate in forecasting which candidate voters will select. Standard models tell you how voters would vote today based on asking them a series of questions which are variations on the question "who are you voting for?" IDEOLOGIC forecasts which elements of the coming election will play a role in deciding voters choices.
- IDEOLOGIC allows for a quicker assessment of voter preferences by identifying a few factors rather than polling voters on a wide range of possible issues. This characteristic allows for use of the IDEOLOGIC analysis in real time applications, like "instant analysis" of presidential debates.
- IDEOLOGIC easily lends itself to dynamic analysis of voter change. For example, in the debate setting, IDEOLOGIC's analysis of voter factors more easily identifies the development of "new dimensions" in which candidates seek to change their relative positions.
Select here for a demonstration of this aspect.
- IDEOLOGIC easily lends itself to a graphical representation. For theoretical reasons, voters tend to change their understanding by adding only an additional factor lending the representation to simple two dimensional graphics.
Select here for a demonstration of this aspect.
Return to IDEOLOGIC.
Go to a summary of the new Enhanced IDEOLOGIC.