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Winter climate prediction for NC and US, relevant to birds and trips



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

For folks planning trips this winter to Mattamuskeet and the Outer Banks,
the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, or south Texas, check out the website for
the Climate Prediction Center. Scroll down to Climate Highlights and click
on Winter Outlook. Then click on 10/12/00 Forecast, plus any of the
highlighted figures that sound interesting. These graphics are well designed
and easy to understand compared with the graphics this site used to have. 

The take-home message? This winter in NC and the US it should be colder than
it was in the 3 winters of 1998-2000, when El Nino and La Nina were in
control, but this winter will still be warmer than "normal," i.e. the
average of the winters of 1961-1990. Here in the Southeast, what's
interesting is that more frequent outbreaks of really cold air are expected
compared with last winter, and there's also a possibility of more snow this
year, because it should be wetter. (Parched South Texas should also be
wetter -- good news for Santa Ana and Sabal Palms.) So in the two Carolinas
maybe we'll have unusually high numbers of fox sparrows below our feeders
and who knows what else! (Repeat, maybe.) 

Think snow!

Ginger_Travis@unc.edu (who just finished making up the last of 22 hours of
work time missed at UNC-CH following the blizzard of January, 2000.)
Chapel Hill, NC