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Re: Human vs. natural influences on the environment



In <4t9c98$7gg_003@pm4-168.hal-pc.org> charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew)
writes: 
>
>
>>I find the argument that "We don't really understand 
>everything yet, so we
>>might as well keep increasing the level of our forcing 
>function on a system
>>which may have positive feedback loops and no limits" to be 
>very unsettling.
>>Is ignorance of an approaching cliff really bliss?
>>
>
>Let's get real here.  How many things in nature have 
>positive feedback loops associated with them?  Not many.  If 
>you knew anything about positive feedback, you would realize 
>that it is inherently unstable.  The mere fact that the 
>atmosphere and oceans have not turned into a frozen puddle 
>or boiled away strongly implies that no positive feedback is 
>involved.  The same argument applies for variables with no 
>limits.  As far as all of the physicists can tell, there are 
>no absolute zeroes or infinities in nature.  Everything has 
>a limit.

This is a good point - in the abstract. In specific circumstances,
it just *might* turn out that climate is just approaching a
situation where positive feedback was present - for a while;
and the limits just *might* be so high as to approximate
"no limits". We just *might* be moving towards a cliff.
There is no evidence that we are; and it is improbable,
but it *might* be true. In these conditions, a nudge
from our industrial emissions *might* push us towards the cliff.
Or else - it might push us *away* from it. 

Both are equally likely or equally unlikely, 
in the abstract.

What, then, is to be done, if anything?

(1) We need to understand more
before doing anything - so that our action helps,
not harms. If major changes begin,
we'll know; if our prediction powers improve, we will
know, too. We ought to wait for one of these 
two events. 

(2)We need to maximize our
power to do something once we decide to do it. 
That is, (2.1) maximize our economic, industrial,
technological power. That is, let our industry
be guided by profits, nit regulations.
Also (2.2) the more environmental impact we can make,
the better. If our gas emissions the climate, and our
aerosols cool it, let us increase our capacity
to produce both. Then, if circumstances ever call for
it, we can cool or warm at will. 


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