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Re: fHuman vs. natural influences on the environment



charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew) wrote:
>In article <4u82ou$lli@sun3.uni-essen.de>,
>   jbh@ILP.Physik.Uni-Essen.DE (Joshua B. Halpern) wrote:
>>charliew (charliew@hal-pc.org) wrote:
>>: In article <4u3avt$su3@condor.ic.net>,
>>:    All locked up and nowhere to go <cage@critech.com> 
>wrote:
>>: >charliew@hal-pc.org (charliew) wrote:
>>Snip....
>>: Oh, gee.  Another guy in the world who knows something 
>about 
>>: process control!
>>: 
>>: I made no assumptions in my statements.  I was trying to 
>>: point out that a long time constant by itself is not 
>>: necessarily detrimental.  Whether a system as large as 
>>: the atmosphere can be substantially affected over a 1 year 
>>: time interval is open to debate, and something that I consider 
>>: to be merely a matter of your opinion. 
>>
>>Krakatoa, Pinatubo......
>
>Oh, that "volcanic winter" produced by Pinatubo was a barely 
>surviveable event.  Good heavens, all of mankind almost went 
>extinct on that one because the earth's atmosphere cooled by 
>0.1 deg C!

Charlie, you need to listen as well as debate.  Krakatoa and
Pinatubo clearly disprove your assertion quoted above, to wit,
"Whether a system as large as the atmosphere can be substantially
affected over a time interval is open to debate . . . "  You
did not say that by "substantial," you meant substantial enough
to threaten the extinction of humanity.

I don't think anyone thinks that climate change will result in
the extinction of humanity any time soon.  At the same time,
as cage@critech has pointed out, if it caused a shift in Gulf
Stream so that the climate of Europe changed to resemble that
of Canada (note that the two lie at similar latitudes), the
economic damage would be quite serious.  It is possible that
a modest shift in temperatures like the ones that took place
with Krakatoa and Pinatubo, but that continues steadily over
several decades, could have such an impact.

>>   Large impact craters.....
>
>Yep, that crater 65 million years ago sure messed things up 
>alright.  I bet we're due another one in about 10 or 20 
>million more years!

Similarly, the impact crater comment simply disproves what you 
said.  You're right, they don't happen often, but whether the
atmosphere can be substantially altered is not a matter of
opinion.

>>        Full scale nuclear war....
>
>I'm sure that I'm going to worry about the weather when a 
>nuke is falling on my head!
>
>Why don't you get real here, and stay within the realm of 
>possibility over the time frame of one or two human 
>lifetimes?  Nobody gives a damn about something that is 
>going to happen over geologic time frames!

Global warming is going to happen over one or two lifetimes.  If
it occurs as predicted, it's simply the equivalent of a Pinatubo on
the plus side, happening a couple of times per decade, and cumulative
instead of a one-time event.

>>Short impulse events.  Large atmospheric consequences.
>>
>>Disproof by example.
>>
>>Wrong again Charlie....

Tom Gray
Director of Communications
American Wind Energy Association

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Tom Gray <tomgray@econet.org>



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